“Our Civilization Was Built for a Climate That’s Vanishing…
“Every storm-water channel and every building heating or cooling system has been built for a climate that is rapidly disappearing. Patterns of trade and global supply chains are easily disrupted by ecological disasters. Politics is built on geographic coalitions that may dissolve as climate change alters the trajectories of different regions, or sends refugees to seek homes elsewhere.”
“The Economic Fallout From Extreme Heat Will Rise Over Time.
“Among the costs of very high temperatures: reduced labor productivity, damaged crops, higher mortality rates, trade disruption and dampened investment… “We built an economy and a set of practices coded to a past climate,” he said, “not the one that is unfolding.”“
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/business/extreme-heat-economy.html
“Why efforts to insure the world against climate change are falling flat.
“Proposals to insure communities against economic losses caused by climate impacts — like harvests lost to worsening droughts — have gained traction over the past year. But many countries on the front lines of climate change are wary of such schemes, often pushed by rich nations as a solution to the mounting costs of global warming.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-efforts-insure-world-against-climate-change-fall-flat/
“Financial Regulators Must Act to Prevent a Climate-Related Crash…
“Citing climate-related disasters, in the past few weeks alone State Farm and Allstate abandoned the California homeowners insurance market, and Farmers departed from Florida. These are just the latest in a long line of climate-linked disruptions of the insurance market.”
“Grain prices rise after Russian pullout of Black Sea deal sparks food crisis fears.
“Wheat prices have been climbing on global markets, just days after Russia pulled out of an agreement that guaranteed safe passage for ships carrying cereals through the Black Sea, reigniting fears of the impact on poorer, grain-importing countries, as well as on western nations dealing with stubbornly high inflation.”
“India’s rice export ban could send decade-high prices spiking even further.
“India banned the exports of non-basmati white rice with immediate effect late Thursday, the latest in the government’s effort to rein in high food prices… India is the world’s leading rice exporter, accounting for more than 40% of the global rice trade, as well as the second-largest producer after China.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/indias-rice-export-ban-could-send-decade-high-prices-higher.html
“Popping Real Estate Bubbles Will Prove Painful.
“Faith that interest rates would stay low forever fostered a “fool’s paradise,” according to former Bank of England boss Mervyn King. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the unraveling of the global real estate boom, which is now turning into bust as prices start to fall around the world.”
“China mulls easing mortgages to spur homebuying in big cities as existing policies fail to sustain property market rebound.
“Regulators are weighing scrapping rules that disqualify people who have had a mortgage from being considered a first-time homebuyer in major cities, sources say. Plans are under discussion after state banks submitted mortgage data and feedback to the regulators over the past few months.”
“China’s sagging economy looms over quarterly results around the world.
“China’s frail growth could weigh on companies with exposure to the world’s second-largest economy, including Apple (AAPL.O), big chipmakers and luxury retailers as they report quarterly results in the next few weeks. Wall Street is bracing for a steep drop in second-quarter U.S. earnings…”
“South Korean exports in the first part of July fell at the fastest pace since March, dampening hopes that a slowdown in global trade might be turning a corner.
“Daily shipments dropped 15.2% on average in the first 20 days of July from a year earlier, the customs office said Friday.”
“‘People need to be riled up’: meteorologist names US heatwaves after oil and gas giants…
“The rebadging of heatwaves as being directly the fault of companies like Chevron is “a naming and shaming thing”, according to Walton, who wants weather forecasters and the media to be more explicit between the links between extreme heat and the burning of fossil fuels that has caused the climate crisis.”
“Tornado damages Pfizer plant in North Carolina, will “likely lead to long-term shortages” of medicine.
“An important Pfizer pharmaceutical plant in North Carolina was severely damaged on Wednesday after a powerful tornado ripped through the area, threatening production lines that normally provide huge amounts of medicine to U.S. hospitals. Meanwhile, torrential rain flooded parts of Kentucky and communities from California to South Florida endured scorching heat that at times reached record-high temperatures.”
“Almost 16 million trees have been chopped down on publicly owned land in Scotland to make way for wind farms, an SNP minister had admitted amid a major drive to erect more turbines.
“Mairi Gougeon, the Rural Affairs Secretary, estimated that 15.7 million trees had been felled since 2000 in land that is currently managed by agency Forestry and Land Scotland (FLS) – the equivalent of more than 1,700 per day.”
“Vattenfall halts project, warns UK offshore wind targets in doubt.
“Swedish utility Vattenfall said on Thursday it would stop development of its British Norfolk Boreas offshore wind project due to rising costs, and warned that Britain could struggle to meet its wind targets without improved incentives.”
“UK Profit warnings climb to financial crisis levels… The accountancy’s strategy consultancy EY-Parthenon said more than one in six UK-listed companies have issued a profit warning in the past 12 months, as rising borrowing costs and tightened consumer belts hit margins.”
“Several Italian cities, including Rome, were left in the dark on Wednesday as power usage in the country soared to a record high amid sizzling temperatures.
“…a massive increase in energy usage for cooling purposes has reportedly pushed the electricity grids of several cities beyond their limits resulting in widespread blackouts.”
https://www.thelocal.it/20230719/blackouts-hit-italian-cities-as-heatwave-drives-energy-use
“Gaza’s power cuts leave Palestinians sweltering amid rising temperatures.
“Palestinians in the besieged Gaza Strip have been left struggling to cope with rising temperatures, due to widespread electricity cuts. The Middle East and North Africa have been experiencing scorching temperatures, with some countries registering record figures, prompting the World Meteorological Organization to issue a warning.”
“Lebanese officials urge wildfire preparedness against heatwave, financial crisis…
“The Lebanese Environment Ministry warned that firefighting teams in 24 to 30 districts were short of necessary equipment, and it needs to invest 5 million U.S. dollars to prepare them with essential fire response capacities. In addition, these services faced funding shortages in administrative operation, training and paying wages due to the country’s dire financial situation…”
https://english.news.cn/20230721/c2ee250239a64c96b6040bcc4aad26dd/c.html
“Peru boosts security ahead of fresh anti-government protests.
“Police in Peru’s capital guarded key government buildings and highways in and out of the city on Wednesday as the government prepares for protests being organized by left-wing groups and unions calling for President Dina Boluarte’s resignation.”
“Venezuela Is Down to One Working Refinery as Lines Waiting for Gas Grow.
“Venezuela has just one gasoline refinery operating as it struggles to repair two key plants, creating a shortage so severe drivers and truckers are queuing up for hours — even days — for fuel.”
“Europe’s climate action policies threatening Ghana’s fuel supply…
“Despite being a producer of crude, Ghana is only able to refine 20% of its daily fuel needs, compelling it to rely on Europe and the Arabian Gulf for the rest of its daily fuel needs.”
“Climate and violence hobble Nigeria’s push to rely on its own wheat after the hit from Russia’s war…
“Wheat normally requires heat, but in the last three years, farmers in Nigeria’s far north, part of Africa’s Sahel region that largely produces the country’s homegrown food, have seen an “alarming” increase in heat — much more than required, said Salisu, a local leader of wheat farmers in Kaita, Katsina State. Plus, rain is irregular.”
“Malawi Faces Another Nationwide Fuel Shortage.
“Long lines of motorists are waiting for hours, sometimes overnight, in hopes of fueling their vehicles, while public transport fares have doubled. Malawi’s energy regulator says the country has depleted its fuel reserves, largely due to a lack of foreign currency.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/malawi-faces-another-nationwide-fuel-shortage-/7187496.html
“Anger boils over as Kenya’s cost of living protests shake the nation.
“A wave of deadly protests has hit Kenya as anger over tax hikes and the cost of living spilled into the streets. At least three people were reportedly killed in the latest round of demonstrations this week, with hundreds arrested, businesses attacked and schools closed.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/20/africa/kenya-cost-of-living-protests-explainer-intl/index.html
“‘All that we had is gone’: my lament for war-torn Khartoum.
“Since Sudan’s capital was engulfed by violence in April, life there has been all but destroyed. As we tried to get family members to safety, the ruination of my former home became hard to fathom.”
“Could AI Cause a Global Financial Meltdown?
“…While one might think the financial system is based on facts and hard data, the latest economic challenges, which include the Federal Reserve’s efforts to prevent a credit crunch and fight high inflation, are one illustration of the complexity involved.
“”The inputs and outputs of our financial system include an incredible number of situational scenarios and previously unencountered circumstances, which results in a very difficult training scenario for AI systems…””
https://www.informationweek.com/big-data/could-ai-cause-a-global-financial-meltdown-
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Export Land Model takes Hold
It’s the exports that matter. This podcast should wake you up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB0fyVNay_k&t=32s
Thanks, Matt. I haven’t had time to listen but I looked up Jeff’s Export Land Model on Wiki:
“Several real-world nations exhibit the characteristics of the Export Land Model… Indonesia has already shifted from oil exporter to oil importer while Egypt is hovering on the brink. Malaysia and Mexico also have the hallmarks of the Export Land Model.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
The UK turned net importer of oil around twenty years ago but I think that was more due to the fading of the North Sea boom than increased domestic consumption. It’s certainly been pretty disastrous for our increasingly rickety and debt-reliant economy.
Jeffrey Brown, the guy who came up with the Export Land Model was known as WestTexas on TheOilDrum.com (now an archive). If you’re interested in Jeff’s other stuff, search for his handle – I recall reading many absolutely fascinating articles by Jeffrey, a foremost oil producer.
You mention the North Sea – it’s a lesson in itself, as it was said to have taken 52 holes (rig, drill, strike-out) before they found a producing well in the shallow North Sea. The North Sea still has pipes running all around, its said there’s a billion dollars in cleanup to be done.
The North Sea oil exploratory costs were far less than deep sea drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Each attempt in the GOM costs upwards of $150 million dollars – entire corporate hopes/dreams are bet on each hole. It’s not hard to see how oil companies do need their billions in profits so they can spend billions to keep us all alive!
Thanks, Matt. I caught the last year or two of The Oil Drum but Jeffrey Brown didn’t really lodge in my consciousness.
“It’s not hard to see how oil companies do need their billions in profits so they can spend billions to keep us all alive!”
Yes, indeed. Of course, the dreadful irony is that they are irreplaceable in keeping us alive (and arguably, by enabling the so-called Green Revolution, they allowed people like me to be born in the first place) whilst helping slowly kill us. It’s hard not to feel like we are the butt of some cosmic joke!
“I may be going to hell in a bucket, babe
But at least I’m enjoying the ride” – Grateful Dead