“Global public debt surged to a record $92 trillion in 2022 as governments borrowed to counter crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, with the burden being felt acutely by developing countries, a United Nations report said.
“Domestic and external debt worldwide has increased more than five times in the last two decades, outstripping the rate of economic growth, with gross domestic product only tripling since 2002…
“”In Africa, the amount spent on interest payments is higher than spending on either education or health,” the report found with 3.3 billion people living in countries that spend more on debt interest payments than on health or education.
““Countries are facing the impossible choice of servicing their debt or serving their people.””
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-public-debt-hits-record-92-trillion-un-report-2023-07-12/
“Has the global trade recession already started?
“As economists fret about whether we face a big or a small global recession, and whether we’ll face it sooner or later, it is worth bearing in mind that trade is already showing signs of deep stress. Risk appetite towards emerging economies might be shaken as a result.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1695b888-95ff-4b26-b3ef-1e4dbde74cad
“There were fresh warning signs for the global economy on Thursday.
“New data for June showed China’s exports fell at their fastest pace since the onset of the global health crisis three years ago. Overseas shipments slumped by 12.4% on the year – a much bigger drop than economists had forecast. Imports also fell much more than expected. A customs service spokesman said faltering global demand was to blame.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/china-exports-tumble-global-economy-095320351.html
“China invites global investors for rare meeting as economy sputters.
“China’s financial regulators have invited some of the world’s biggest investors to a rare symposium next week, three sources said, seeking to encourage foreigners to keep investing in the world’s second-largest economy despite its recent weakness and rising geopolitical tensions.”
“Industrial Hub Facing Power Crunch That May Ripple Across China.
“Extreme heat and rising energy demand risk overwhelming China’s attempts to prevent a repeat of last year’s curbs on power supply in the major industrial province of Sichuan. China’s sixth-biggest provincial economy, with a higher GDP than Poland, is heavily reliant on hydropower…”
“Relics of the Last Property Crash Are Starting to Wobble Again…
““The low cost of debt due to quantitative easing has led to the same property value expansion as observed during the previous cycle,” said Nicole Lux, a senior fellow at Bayes Business School whose research areas include real estate finance. “Lenders and investors now have to admit that they are facing the same refinancing issues for their properties.””
“Troubling developments are happening in the credit markets.
“The federal funds rate is above 5%, close to where it was in 2007, the last time the economy started to tip into a major recession and financial crisis. We are already starting to hear creaks and groans from within the markets. Commercial property loan delinquencies are at five-year highs.”
https://nypost.com/2023/07/12/federal-funds-rate-signals-big-trouble-ahead/
“The economy is in the throes of a slow-moving financial crisis thanks to ballooning amounts of debt being racked up in the US private sector, according to GMO.
“”We seem to live in an era of rolling financial crisis. I suspect this is the result of a massive build-up of private sector debt,” GMO partner James Montier said…”
“Fossil fuel workers are dying inhaling gases – despite US warnings to big oil.
“After multiple worker fatalities, the US government warned manual gauging was dangerous. The oil industry seems to have not taken note, activists say… The oil and gas industry is dangerous for its workers, with a fatality rate seven times higher than the national average, according to a 2013 study.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/13/fossil-fuel-deaths-inhaling-gas
“In Canada, deserted oil wells are environmental time bombs…
“Each one of these wells also emits methane, a potent greenhouse gas that, over a 20-year period, is “86 times more impactful compared to a molecule of carbon dioxide,” stresses McGill University professor Mary Kang, who has written a study on the issue.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-07-canada-oil-wells-environmental.html
“UK lenders passed stress tests – but no one should feel relaxed by the news.
“… if you prefer your risks to be more big-picture, go to the section of the financial stability report that reminds readers that non-bank financial institutions – think pension funds, insurers, investment funds – have grown since 2007-08 to represent about half of UK financial sector assets.”
“Andrew Bailey’s assurances can no longer be trusted… Identifying potential shocks is of little use if central bankers are unable to defuse them…
“…it’s a measure of how low the Bank of England’s reputation has sunk that even Andrew Bailey’s assurances on banks will probably be taken with a pinch of salt these days.”
“A new Eurozone doom loop?
“Over the last four years, Eurozone sovereign exposures to the corporate sector have exceeded 20% of GDP… there has been considerable economic scarring – and the risk of higher corporate defaults continues to rise (especially as governments start tightening their belts). Higher public-sector exposures raise the risk of a doom loop as weak growth puts increasing pressure on corporate margins.”
https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/eurozone-corporates.html
“Real Estate Is Most Distressed Sector in Europe, Study Finds.
“Higher interest rates, increased debt servicing costs and a fall in demand for office space “is putting intense pressure on the market,” according to the Weil European Distress Index report. The study, by law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP, aggregates data from more than 3,750 listed European firms.”
“Prescription for Disaster: Europe faces alarming medicine shortages crisis…
“A recent study by investigative journalist networks the MIIR and the EDJNet on selected EU countries found that shortage duration could amount to between 72-130 days for certain pharmaceutical products.”
“Riot fears cast a shadow over France’s Bastille Day celebrations.
“Fireworks sales have been banned over their use against security forces in riots which erupted at the end of June after police shot dead a teenager during a traffic stop, reviving anger over racism and police brutality.”
“Brawl erupts in Kosovo parliament after water thrown at PM.
“A brawl erupted in the Kosovo parliament after an opposition lawmaker threw water on the prime minister, Albin Kurti, while he was speaking about government measures to defuse tensions with ethnic Serbs in the country’s north.”
“Italy’s Meloni faces reality check as migrant flows rise relentlessly…
“Despite pledges before last year’s national election that she would cut immigration, the number of people crossing the Mediterranean in a flotilla of often decrepit old boats has doubled over the past nine months.”
“Tunisia coastguard pulls 13 bodies, 25 surviving migrants from sea off Sfax.
“”Last night, units affiliated with the Sfax maritime region thwarted an attempted illegal crossing and rescued 25 sub-Saharan migrants, but 13 bodies were also recovered,” the coastguard statement said. Sfax is the North African country’s second largest city and a departure point for migrants seeking to reach European shores across the Mediterranean.”
“War in Sudan has displaced over three million people, says UN.
“The United Nations on Wednesday said nearly three months of war in Sudan have uprooted more than three million people, and called for the warring sides to face “accountability”.”
“Egypt announces ‘record’ inflation.
“Egypt’s headline inflation for urban areas was 35.7% in June, according to official statistics, a rise of three percentage points from May. The Egyptian statistics agency, Capmas, recorded a June headline inflation rate of 36.8% for the country as a whole.”
“Police say officers kill at least 6 as Kenyans protest rising costs, and 50 children are tear-gassed.
” A police official said officers killed six people Wednesday during new protests in Kenya against the rising cost of living, while a health worker said more than 50 schoolchildren in the capital, Nairobi, were tear-gassed. The opposition leader behind the demonstrations vowed they would continue until a new law imposing more taxes is repealed.”
“Lebanon daycare abuse prompts alarm as economic despair deepens.
“The alleged abuse of toddlers at a daycare in crisis-stricken Lebanon has sparked alarm over the physical and emotional wellbeing of children in the country, where a nearly four-year economic meltdown is seeping into all aspects of life.”
“Water everywhere in Delhi, but supply crisis looms as 3 plants closed.
“With the water level of the Yamuna rising and submerging pumphouses and water treatment equipment on Thursday morning, three major water treatment plants in Delhi were shut — a move that could impact a quarter of the Capital’s water supply.”
“Hong Kong poised to ban Japanese seafood over treated nuclear wastewater.
“Hong Kong, one of the world’s biggest buyers of Japanese fish, says it will ban seafood imports from 10 prefectures in the country if Tokyo presses ahead with its plan to release treated radioactive water from Fukushima into the sea.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/13/economy/hong-kong-seafood-ban-japan-fukushima-intl-hnk/index.html
“Almost half of North Korea’s population undernourished due to food shortages: UN.
“Almost 12 million North Koreans are undernourished, a new U.N. report shows, a massive surge of more than 1 million people compared to data from the same assessment last year… the WFP projected that it will need over three times more funding for projects in North Korea over the next six months.”
“Argentines tighten wallets to fight spiraling inflation.
“Argentines are tightening their wallets to make end meets as the South American country battles inflation which could surpass 140% on an annual basis this year, hunting for the cheapest prices on basic goods to shield their income.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/argentines-tighten-wallets-fight-spiraling-inflation-2023-07-13/
“Argentina’s economic woes spark ‘supermarket tourism’ from neighbors.
“Uruguayans are crossing into Argentina to shop for cheap food and fuel in their economic crisis-hit neighbor, but the trend is plunging businesses near the border into a crisis of their own. Uruguayan supermarket manager Noelia Romero said that sales were falling fast as her customers increasingly make day trips to Argentina to look for bargains.”
“Coal-Addicted South Africa Unlikely To Hit Renewables Targets…
“South Africa had targeted lifting the share of renewable energy in its power generation mix from 11% currently to 41% by 2030 by increasing onshore wind and solar capacity… However, rising demand and new additions to its aging coal power infrastructure mean that hitting the renewables target looks increasingly unlikely.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Addicted-South-Africa-Unlikely-To-Hit-Renewables-Targets.html
“Environmental activists in Nigeria are raising alarms after the military this week burned a ship with more than 800,000 liters of stolen crude oil.
“Nigerian officials said the ship was caught smuggling the oil to Cameroon and was destroyed to set an example for would-be criminals. But critics pointed out the damage to the environment…”
“Shell considers selling green energy stake in shift back to oil and gas…
“The FTSE 100 company is said to have approached third parties about offloading part of its global renewable power operations just days after its chief executive warned cutting oil and gas production risked driving up the cost of living.”
“No ‘magic’ wand to banish fossil fuels: COP28 president and oil boss.
“Sultan Al Jaber, Emirates oil executive and president of the most important climate summit since the Paris Agreement in 2015, has a quick answer when asked when the world will stop burning fossil fuels: when there’s enough clean energy to replace them.”
“Collapse is not a dirty word…
“To assume our continued destruction of the planet’s life-supporting systems could lead to any other outcome than collapse is irrational. But, as writes Catherine Knight, the prospect of a ‘great unravelling’ does present an opportunity… If we know where to look, the signs that all is not well are everywhere… collapse has probably already begun…”
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/collapse-is-not-a-dirty-word
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Well … It was good news that someone thought it immoral to arm the Ukrainians with cluster bombs that they will use to shell Donetsk City, but of course, those people are in a vanishingly small minority.
https://news.antiwar.com/2023/07/13/house-votes-down-amendment-to-block-cluster-bomb-shipments-to-ukraine/
Shipping cluster bombs is necessary because the US has no conventional 155mm ammunition left. (as Biden admitted on camera) But, it is immoral and a huge escalation.
Here is a list of the various types of cluster munitions available to the Russians:
“RBC-250-275 AO-1SCh
RBC-250-275 AO-2.5CH
RBC-250 ZAB-2.5
RBC-250
PTAB-2.5
RBC 250-170 MA-3
RBC-500 SPBE
RBC-500 BETAB-20
RBC-500 AO-2.5RT
RBC-500 AO-2.5RTM
RBS-100AO-25-30
RBS-100AO-25-33
BKF PTM-1
BKF PTM-3
BKF ODS-OD
BKF POM-2
BKF POM-1
BKF POM-SV
BKF PTAB-2.5
BKF AO-2.5RT
BKF AO-2.5RTM
BKF PTAB-1M
BKF AS
These are all ordinary bombs, but there are also guided ones, and these are only the types, not taking into account their quantities. There are of every type: cassettes, blocks and bundles in aviation.”