“U.S., China trade blame as hopes for military dialogue fade.
“U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin rebuked China on Saturday for refusing to hold military talks, leaving the superpowers deadlocked over Taiwan and territorial disputes in the South China Sea…
““I am deeply concerned that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries,” Austin told the meeting in Singapore.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/03/us-china-trade-blame-as-hopes-for-military-dialogue-fade.html
“China’s Li says clash with US would bring ‘unbearable disaster’…
“Ties between Washington and Beijing are badly strained over a range of issues, including democratically ruled Taiwan, territorial disputes in the South China Sea and US President Joe Biden’s restrictions on semiconductor chip exports.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/4/chinas-li-says-clash-with-us-would-be-unbearable-disaster
“Taiwan Strait: footage released of near miss between Chinese warship and US destroyer…
“The US military has released video of what it called an “unsafe” Chinese manoeuvre in the Taiwan Strait on the weekend, in which a Chinese navy ship cut sharply across the path of an American destroyer, forcing the US ship to slow to avoid a collision.”
“As oil prices stagnate, OPEC Plus opts to extend production cuts.
“With gas prices stagnant and oil markets relatively flat, the coalition of oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia on Sunday opted to extend output cuts on oil production through 2024.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/04/opec-gas-oil/
“U.S. industrial recession hits energy consumption.
“U.S. manufacturing and freight activity has declined for seven months running, reflected in falling consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils as well as industrial electricity sales. Manufacturers reported another widespread downturn in May…”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/u-s-industrial-recession-hits-energy-consumption/
“Largest terminal at Long Beach, California port won’t open Monday after getting hit by labor turmoil.
“Ports and workers are locked in an unofficial dispute over wages, as well as safety, automation and pension benefits… The Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s largest port, processed 2.5 million containers from January through April.”
“Truckers Testing Positive For Cannabis At Record Rates, 129,000 Prohibited, Exacerbating Supply Chain.
“As more potential and current truck drivers test positive for marijuana, fewer of them are going through the process of getting their commercial driver’s licenses back. And the supermarket shelves tell the story.”
“[US] Shoppers are already changing their spending habits in preparation for a recession, Costco executives have warned…
“CFO Richard Galanti told investors on a call on Thursday that customers are ditching more expensive beef products and big-ticket items such as fridges and televisions.”
“Hot jobs market piles pressure on Federal Reserve to raise rates later this summer.
“Unexpectedly strong hiring across the US economy has piled pressure onto the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this summer if it skips an increase at its forthcoming policy meeting this month.”
https://www.ft.com/content/aa52cc6b-04b8-498c-b6ff-cfa9c78c258f
“US banks prepare for losses in rush for commercial property exit.
“Some US banks are preparing to sell off property loans at a discount even when borrowers are up to date on repayments, a sign of their determination to reduce exposure to the teetering commercial real estate market.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3e905e3c-697c-4109-bd9a-605e75a0cfa4
“A record share of first-time buyers [UK] are taking out mortgages with terms of 35 years or more as soaring costs force more Britons to sign up to a lifetime of debt.
“UK Finance data shows 19pc of all loans taken out by first-time buyers in March were for terms of 35 years or longer.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/04/demand-35-year-mortgages-first-time-buyers-rates/
“Why Britain’s households should expect energy bills to remain high.
“Soaring energy bills over the past 18 months have hit British household budgets hard, fuelling record double-digit inflation and a cost of living crisis… Yet at the end of last month, Jonathan Brearley, head of Ofgem, warned households not to expect bills to return to pre-crisis levels until at least the middle of the decade…”
https://www.ft.com/content/72d22af6-abf9-4c44-8a86-83b47b4edb1f
“Net zero ‘grocery tax’ will push shopping bills up by £4bn, Tories warned…
“In an open letter to The Telegraph, the British Retail Consortium suggests that a scheme to charge retailers and manufacturers for the cost of councils recycling their packaging will increase the cost of household goods when it is rolled out from April next year.”
“Mental health crisis among young people leaves 185,000 unable to work [UK]…
“A new report by the Resolution Foundation found that the number of young adults who are inactive because of health issues has risen from 94,000 in 2012 to 185,000 in 2022. A quarter of 18-to-24 year olds who were out of work last year blamed ill health, up from just 8pc a decade earlier.”
“Roiled by rising borrowing costs and falling valuations that wiped out $148 billion of shareholder value, European landlords are bracing for a new wave of pain.
“Property companies have about $165 billion of bonds maturing through 2026, while banks are reducing their exposure to the industry and credit costs are at their highest since the financial crisis.”
“France plans major police presence for June 6 day of protest.
“French authorities plan to deploy 11,000 police, including 4,000 in Paris, on Tuesday, when unions have called a nationwide day of protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s law to raise the retirement age, the interior ministry said on Sunday.”
“Hundreds of thousands march in Poland anti-government protests.
“Hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered in Poland on the 34th anniversary of the eastern European country’s first post-war democratic election – a march the liberal opposition billed as a test of its ability to end nearly eight years of nationalist rule later this year.”
“Turkey to send commandos to Kosovo in response to Nato peacekeeping call…
““Calm needs to be restored urgently,” the EU high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, said on Saturday. “The European Union condemns in the strongest terms the violent acts against citizens, Kfor [Kosovo Force] troops, law enforcement and media in the north of Kosovo.””
“New research has shed light on the staggering number of Aussies struggling with mortgages ahead of Tuesday’s interest rate decision.
“Comparison site Finder has revealed 40 per cent of Australians – the equivalent of 1.32m households – did not make their May mortgage repayment easily. This is the highest number recorded since Finder began tracking the concerning issue in 2019.”
“China’s May imports to fall again, exports slip into red.
“The pessimistic outlook for exports suggests that Chinese exporters have caught up on unfulfilled orders after last year’s COVID-19 disruptions and global demand is insufficient to sustain a recovery in outbound shipments.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-may-imports-fall-again-exports-slip-into-red-2023-06-05/
“Bangladesh power cuts may last two more weeks on fuel shortages.
“Bangladesh could face power cuts for two more weeks, its power minister said late on Sunday, as higher electricity consumption because of rising temperatures has caused a fuel shortfall for generation plants.”
“Kashmir battles alarming drug addiction crisis.
“…officials say drug addiction is becoming a serious worry in Kashmir, devastating the lives of young people. They also say there is a sharp rise in the consumption of hard drugs such as heroin.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-65744378
“Afghan women face ‘pandemic of suicidal thoughts’.
“”I just want someone to hear my voice. I’m in pain, and I’m not the only one,” an Afghan university student tells us, blinking back tears. “Most of the girls in my class have had suicidal thoughts. We are all suffering from depression and anxiety. We have no hope.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65765399
“Morocco: Hundreds in Casablanca protest high cost of living…
“Coming from all over the country, trade unionists from the left-wing Confédération Démocratique du Travail gathered in the historic center of the economic capital. “We’re here to voice our discontent at soaring prices and attacks on purchasing power”, explained Abdellah Lagbouri, a CDT member…”
https://www.africanews.com/2023/06/04/morocco-hundreds-in-casablanca-protest-high-cost-of-living/
“The death toll in the Senegal violence has risen to 15 as supporters of convicted opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and police continued to clash, the government said on Saturday…
“Rights groups have condemned the government crackdown, which has included arbitrary arrests and restrictions on social media.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/6/4/death-toll-mounts-as-unrest-flares-in-senegal
“Fighting escalates in Sudan’s capital after ceasefire expires.
“Fighting intensified in several areas of Khartoum on Sunday after a ceasefire deal expired, residents of Sudan’s capital reported, and activists said a new outburst of violence in North Darfur state had left at least 40 people dead.”
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/fighting-escalates-khartoum-ceasefire-expires-102211611.html
“Transnet seeks state intervention amid surge in corridor ‘sabotage’ [South Africa]…
“Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) is seeking state intervention after an alarming spike of cable theft incidents along the railway line that connects Durban to the economic hub of Gauteng nearly led to the collapse of its operations over the past two weeks.”
“World Financial System: Is disintegration imminent?
“The above challenges call for a substantial international and financial framework rethink. Without this, the Bretton Woods institutions and the global economic system will continue to disintegrate, which may lead to a collapse of the system.”
“Prepare for doom: AI is already taking control of your money.
“In the spring of 2020, as Covid-19 swept across the world, artificial intelligence (AI) systems working for one of the world’s biggest credit scoring companies noticed an unexpected surge in online shopping.
“The AI bots concluded that this could only mean one thing – a huge digital crime wave. They instructed the company to block millions of transactions, most of which were from ordinary shoppers scrambling for essential goods.
“In the event, human analysts at Fico noticed the errors and reversed most of them, allowing shoppers to get their toilet paper. But the incident is a vivid foretaste of what could go wrong
“With big banks and other institutions already using it for everything from detecting fraud to making high-speed trading decisions, future financial markets could become the playground of duelling AI systems “making complex investment decisions based on patterns that may not be apparent to humans”.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
I think I will need to revisit the global economy in another year, it is obviously trending down but, like the Greenland ice sheet melting, it
seems to still have a long, long way to go before it becomes a train wreck site of shredded bubbles.
Perhaps, I’m just getting impatient?
I’ve always been a bit of a rubbernecker, or disaster junkie, and perhaps I’m not getting enough “fixes” to satisfy my addiction LOL
News being same old – declining prosperity, demand destruction, inflation creep hurting more each month (although I get 3.3% pay rise next month).
The slow snail pace of the decline is getting irritating for me. I guess I will have to keep feeding on fiction instead, apocalyptic action/thrillers at least move fast 🤪
Meanwhile, I watch my little retirement “nest egg” increase a little, or at least hold steady, through Aussie stock and financial market reports at:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/
Hello Rain
Really funny… I myself always put off disaster scenarios. It only happens after I’m gone. After all, I have no appetite at all for disasters whether financial or climatic. 🙂 Panoptocon was already convinced in 2015 that ‘ things would collapse’…. Glad for him and his family that it didn’t happen. My state pension went up by a whopping 10% last year. We’ve never had it so good…..
What might be a nice theme is the question ‘ why can’t people live a simple life in our over-consumption society’?
I am currently following on Netflix an American series ‘ how to get rich’…. which is really funny. I and no moralist or anything but the emphasis and importance placed on ‘ money and matter’ is really breathtaking. And disaster scenarios are always lurking then….
To cheer you up ieta about the salaries the Saudis are going to pay to discarded EU football players :°
Football: Benzema, Messi, Modric… “More than 10” stars targeted for transfer to Saudi Arabia
With Karim Benzema and Lionel Messi leading the way, Saudi Arabia is dreaming big in the summer transfer market.
A list of “more than 10” football stars has been drawn up with a view to their recruitment by clubs in the Saudi Arabian league, with Lionel Messi and Karim Benzema topping the list, a source close to the negotiations told AFP on Monday.
Luka Modric, Hugo Lloris, Sergio Ramos, Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets, N’Golo Kanté, Angel Di Maria and Roberto Firmino are among the targets mooted for joining the Saudi Pro League, according to the same source.
Season starts on 11 August
In total, the Saudi authorities are “in contact with more than 10 players, many of whom have won the World Cup or Champions League, to join the Saudi league next season”, it said. “In addition to receiving fairly lucrative offers, they would be playing in a “very competitive league”, the source said, adding that the aim was to “conclude most of the deals” before the start of next season on 11 August.
Then we are talking about discarded footballers with salaries of 200 million a year!
Why crisis, well then you just reduce your oil output in the hope that ‘we’ will pay for it ourselves all this nonsense.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sports/football/foot-plus-de-10-stars-ciblees-pour-un-transfert-en-arabie-saoudite-20230605
“Perhaps, I’m just getting impatient?
I’ve always been a bit of a rubbernecker, or disaster junkie, and perhaps I’m not getting enough “fixes” to satisfy my addiction LOL”
I know what you mean. For me, its hard wired and while I know that it is there, and that it isn’t the healthiest thing, that need for things to *happen* rears its ugly head frequently. I used to fancy myself a fair chess player, but eventually people discovered that if they did nothing but trade pawns I would get impatient and make mistakes in a lame attempt to just move things along.
One thing is certainly moving for me – lately, I am becoming noticeably older every day. 🙂
At the moment, it is the climate that is the prime locus of shock value – but we will eventually see more financial shocks like the UK pensions crisis, Credit Suisse and US regional banking crisis. Relief over the debt-ceiling deal is casting a rosy glow, I think.
“One thing is certainly moving for me – lately, I am becoming noticeably older every day. 🙂”
Ditto. And I don’t want to miss out on seeing ‘end times’ before I pass!
As in the last of the questions in the intro of every episode of the ‘Fall of Civilizations’ –
“What would it have been like, to have lived through the end times?’. 🙂
I don’t want to miss out! LOL
Still plenty of money sloshing around here too. *Some* folks still have it, the rich folks are still rich – if record crowds at the opening season football matches are any guide. Me? I’m keeping pace, like most baby-boomer generation – but headlines are still talking about the steady increase in homeless ‘camps’ and Food Bank buses on the outskirts of our cities.
Even our housing markets have gone up? Although one pundit thought it was a temporary blip as immigration has spiked, as we open the floodgates on our borders to “skilled labour” (or the educated middle-class from generally poorer countries). Especially India and Vietnam.
Calling our PM – Anthony Albanese – “Globo-Albo” as he has been trotting around parts the globe, making very pretty speeches and big-bucks deals across SE Asia. Not just trade, but AID$ for climate mitigation/adaptation projects, and ‘easy-visa’ immigration policies.
Sooner or later, I’m guessing the rising numbers of Aussie poor & homeless from the lower middle-classes dropping below comfort levels will eventually get angry about that too.