“Global container production slumps as demand for goods sinks.
“The drop-off in demand has hit manufacturers hard. Profits at China International Marine Containers, one of the country’s largest producers of the boxes, plunged 91 per cent year-on-year to Rmb160mn ($23mn) in the first three months of this year…
“World Trade Organization economists believe export growth will stutter for the duration of this year, suggesting demand for containers will remain weak…
“Stockpiles are now at record levels across the Asia-Pacific region, Karlsen said, adding that “massive amounts” of containers were expected to continue to pile up in ports the region throughout this year.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2c3747de-7827-471e-99a0-af554cb3b4e8
“World Bank seeks grants, new capital to fight global crises.
“The World Bank will press for more grants and new capital from member countries, even as it leverages its balance sheet to scale up lending for responses to climate change and other global crises, its managing director of operations said on Tuesday.”
“The new gold boom: how long can it last?
“…Coronavirus, the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, mounting global debt, high interest rates and the banking crisis have all prompted investors to re-evaluate safe-haven assets. Gold has been the beneficiary.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2b31029a-2fed-4e22-89a5-45f881c401b
“Looming Defaults Threaten Chain Reaction From Credit Into Stocks…
““Markets appear unduly optimistic about the outlook,” says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer of Lockwood Advisors at BNY Mellon Pershing. “We don’t believe current credit spreads, especially in lower-grade credits, are compensating for cyclical, political and geopolitical risks. High-yield spreads need to move materially higher.””
“Private equity steps up lending as U.S. banks pull back…
“Shadow banks, as the private creditors are known, are able to lend with fewer regulatory hurdles. While private credit funds have grown swiftly, the risks they pose to the financial system appear limited, the Federal Reserve wrote in a report this month.”
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/private-equity-steps-up-lending-as-u-s-banks-pull-back
“The housing slowdown is a top signal that the US is headed into a moderate recession, Fannie Mae says.
“The government-sponsored mortgage agency predicted a modest recession to hit the economy later this year, pointing especially to the slowdown in US housing activity. Existing home sales have plunged to their lowest level since 2010…”
“The golden age of liquidity comes to an end.
“For the first time since the survey began, the proportion of Americans who say they would cover a $400 emergency expense completely using cash or its equivalent dropped from the previous year. That’s in large part a function of pandemic-era cash assistance programs ending.”
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/22/golden-age-liquidity-ends
“Americans’ financial wellbeing hit by higher inflation, Fed survey shows.
“Americans reported that their financial health had deteriorated sharply in 2022 in the face of elevated inflation, new data from the Federal Reserve on Monday showed… Nearly a third reported they were either “just getting by” or “finding it difficult to get by”.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ec0da083-406f-4727-ac19-b397369326d0
“Inflation tightens grip on UK services firms in worry for Bank of England -flash PMI…
“The BoE is watching prices in the services sector as an indicator of how much inflation pressure remains in the economy. It has increased interest rates at 12 meetings in a row since late 2021 and is due to announce its next decision on June 22.”
“Interest on the UK’s debt mountain hit a record high last month as the government racked up another £25.6billion of borrowing.
“Borrowing came in higher than expected as inflation pushed up charges on the £2.5trillion debt, while energy bills support and hikes in benefits added to the burden.”
“Weakest European firms face highest amount of maturing debt since 2015 – Deutsche Bank…
“The bank added that in the absence of a soft landing, weaker economic growth and a potential hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) suggest that financing conditions will remain tight, increasing pressure for corporates in the second half of the year.”
“EU’s Top Lenders Would Need Central Bank Aid in Crisis, SRB Says.
“The failure of Credit Suisse Group AG shows that Europe’s top lenders would still need liquidity assistance from central banks if they were to collapse, according a top regulator. That case made clear that the needs of a so-called global systemically important bank in crisis would outstrip the bloc’s bank failure fund, as well as a planned additional facility…”
“How Hyperinflation Heralded the Fall of German Democracy…
“So fast was the inflation that pay became worthless within days. As Berlin journalist Friedrich Kroner put it, “the spanking brand-new bank note, still moist from the printers, paid out today as a weekly wage, shrinks in value on the way to the grocer’s shop.” His advice was to “buy, buy, buy.””
“Big drop in German exports to China raises fears over EU’s economic powerhouse…
“Falling exports to China are among a number of indicators that Germany’s manufacturing sector is suffering from a sharp decline at the start of this year, including lower factory output, plummeting demand and a shrinking backlog of orders, which could slow growth in the EU’s largest economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3034d39c-118a-44d3-b9bf-6482b786018f
“Qatar’s energy minister warned on Tuesday the “worst is yet to come” for Europe’s oil and gas shortages, saying a warm winter had prevented greater difficulties in recent months.
“Saad al-Kaabi and his Saudi counterpart Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said a lack of investment in oil and gas, as the world tries to transition to cleaner fuels to prevent global warming, risked causing an energy crunch.”
“Czechs take next step to eliminate Russian oil from Polish-owned refineries.
“The Czech government is looking to eliminate all dependence on Russian oil in the coming years, and thus end its exemptions from a European Union ban on imports from Moscow last year.”
“Russia considers gasoline export ban, sources say.
“The Russian government is considering a possible gasoline export ban to prevent domestic fuel shortages and price hikes following a decision to reduce subsidies for refineries, industry and government sources told Reuters on Tuesday.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-considers-gasoline-export-ban-sources-say-2023-05-23/
“Papua New Guinea, US sign defence and maritime pact.
“The United States has signed a defence and maritime surveillance agreement with Papua New Guinea (PNG) during a visit by the top US diplomat as Washington aims to counter China’s influence in the Pacific region.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/22/papua-new-guinea-us-to-sign-security-pact-with-eye-on-china
“China opposes trade agreement reached between U.S. and Taiwan.
“China firmly opposed the agreement reached between the U.S. and Taiwan, urging the U.S. to “carefully handle economic and trade relations with Taiwan”, China’s ministry of commerce said on Tuesday.”
“Beijing hits back at U.S. allies and ‘anti-China’ G-7 summit.
“State-backed Chinese mouthpiece Global Times called the Group of Seven summit an “anti-China workshop” on Monday, after Beijing summoned Japan’s envoy and berated Britain in a fiery response to statements issued at the weekend in Hiroshima.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/beijing-hits-back-us-allies-anti-china-g-7-summit-rcna85507
“Chip war: Apple strikes major US-made semiconductor deal.
“Apple says it has struck a multi-billion dollar deal with chipmaker Broadcom to use more US-made parts. Under the multi-year agreement, the two US companies will develop components for 5G devices that will be designed and manufactured in America.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65692276
“Samsung faces threat of first-ever strike…
“The threat of strike action comes at a sensitive time for Samsung, which posted a record $3.4bn loss in its chip division in the first quarter. It has been forced to cut chip production amid an industry slump and the US-China technology rivalry.”
https://www.ft.com/content/eb3ff076-f098-40a2-9a0e-6b1a03db4970
“Power outages due to scorching heat lead to street protests in Uttar Pradesh [India].
“As the blistering heatwave continues to scorch India, the residents of Uttar Pradesh find themselves grappling with the devastating consequences of temperatures reaching up to a searing 45 degrees Celsius leading to surging demand for electricity resulting in distressing and frequent power outages across the region.”
“Israelis Blame Government for Economic Woes as Prices Continue to Soar.
“A new survey by the Israel Democracy Institute shows a clear majority of Israel see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies as the cause of their financial hardships… Nearly 60 percent of Israelis believe the Netanyahu government is to blame…”
“Argentina introduces larger bank note amid galloping inflation.
“Argentina has put a new 2,000-peso bill into circulation as the country endures one of the world’s highest inflation rates that has decimated the value of the local currency. The new bank note is worth double the previous highest bill in circulation…”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Hello Panopticon
Just a notes on the possibility of a gas export restriction by Russia. It could well be possible but devastating for their economy. Yet there was also the direction that gas and oil revenues this month for Gazprom were down 43% compared to last year. Those are significant financial setbacks
I don’t know if you are depleting and forecasting Russian oil and gas! That didn’t look so rosy anyway. There are quite a few sources and they all refer to a period of several decades with recoverable reserves. That is pretty much in line with the general picture. Those projections make future investments in Russia very problematic especially now that they do have to contend with the sanctions that undoubtedly slow down technological developments.
Several decades only ach ach… that’s a short span of time even for a lifetime 🙂
https://www.oreanda-news.com/en/tek/the-term-of-depletion-of-oil-reserves-in-russia-has-been-named/article1473316/
Zip, as far as oil goes, Russia’s government announced in 2021 that they had probably passed peak production, which was 11.3 million barrels per day in 2019 [that is still below the Soviet Union’s peak production of 12.58 million barrels per day back in 1988].
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/12/russia-may-have-passed-peak-oil-output-government-a73558
Last year, in spite of sanctions, they managed to produce 10.73 million bpd. It remains to be seen what will happen moving forwards but the war has pushed their fiscal break-even needs in excess of what the market can realistically bear:
“S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates Russia’s fiscal breakeven oil price at $114/b in 2023, up from $64.47/b before its invasion of Ukraine, as the Kremlin’s outgoings to fund the war add to its overall budget spending.”
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/013123-russias-economic-gap-with-key-opec-allies-widens-adding-to-policy-debate
And really that goes to the heart of our current problem – not enough affordable energy and a concomitant feeling of unfairness and insufficiency, so that we see discord between nations that primarily produce commodities and those that consume them. And on a smaller scale we see the discord between those producing food, especially, and those consuming it, with accusations of greedflation flying!
The financial system is no longer equipped to provide even an illusion of sufficiency.
The “MoscowTimes” article is fascinating. Dr. Morgan gives the Russians 2 years before their EOREI becomes a drag on their economy, but if they never waste* any energy building intermittent electricity generation systems, maybe they can extend that date a year or two.
*”waste” assumes that it is too late to worry about AGW.
“Russia remains poorly positioned to take advantage of the global energy transition to cleaner and renewable sources of energy, experts say. While countries in Europe and the U.S. have put clean energy at the center of their post-coronavirus economic stimulus and investment packages, Russia is reportedly planning to cut state spending on green energy. Analysts estimate that if every project currently in development is completed in time, Russia’s electricity generation from renewable sources, excluding hydro power, will be just 1% by 2024.
“While international oil [majors] are falling over themselves in their business transformation potential to become ‘clean,’ Russians are unlikely to compete with them in this renewables drive,” VTB Capital’s deputy head of oil and gas research Dmitry Loukashov said in a research note last week.”
The idea that the worlds supply of oil “will last 50 years” is silly. Of course if one could transport a drill rig 100 or 1000 years into the future one could produce oil because there will be some – as the articles said – deep under the arctic. The practical issue is the relationship between price, EOREI, and the strength of the world economy – i.e. Can the worlds economy run hot enough to afford the FFs that can be extracted? Another way to ask the same question, “Which world economy can afford $134 oil, and why would the Russians sell at a loss?”
Still, I doubt that we will starve because the price of oil will crash the world economy. Before that happens … nuclear war.
Biden is supporting F16 sales, Blinken said that the US supports Ukraine bombing Crimea and that the US will supply the missiles, Big arms sales/gifts to Taiwan, Ukrainian NAZIs crossed the Russian border near Belgorod using US supplied armor.