“Global shipping routes face a level of “threat and coercion” not seen since the Second World War, a UK foreign minister has said.
[NB I hope readers understand that I am not endorsing UK foreign policy or perspectives here; I feel the need to add that disclaimer in these febrile times!]
“Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Britain’s Minister for the Indo-Pacific, said the fight for resources and domination was having a dramatic effect on international shipping.
“Speaking at the Seapower Conference in London, she said rivalry between leading maritime countries including Russia and China was undermining free trade in the Indo-Pacific. She also warned of an environmental emergency, with the world needing to address a depletion of fish stocks that could lead to a collapse in livelihoods.”
“What do high US inflation and China’s deflation risk mean for the global economy?
“…The fire and ice situation serves to complicate a fragile global economic recovery that is already being haunted by the Russia-Ukraine war and persistent China-US trade tensions.”
“Global Economy Risks Stalling as China, Germany Juggernauts Slow…
“The latest data suggest that key parts of the upbeat case for a global pickup aren’t working out as hoped. China’s reopening, after an abrupt pivot away from Covid Zero policies, has run out of steam — and a mild winter in Europe hasn’t been enough to revive Germany’s industrial base.”
“Surveillance: ‘Discretionary Recession’ Creeps Across Retailing [US]…
“On one hand, US retail sales showed that Americans are still spending, albeit with more borrowed money and their savings. On the other, transactions are clearly slowing. We saw this today with Home Depot, which gave a disappointing forecast…”
“[US] Property owners are starting to unload troubled office buildings at fire-sale prices, a sign that the office market slump is moving into a new phase where more landlords are ready to capitulate.
“In recent weeks, Blackstone sold the Griffin Towers office complex in Santa Ana for $82 million, or about 36% less than the firm paid in 2014…”
“The former bosses of two US banks that collapsed in March, sparking global fears over the state of the financial industry, say the failures were caused by “unprecedented” circumstances. The remarks come in testimony prepared for a hearing in Washington on Tuesday.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65605251
“Bosses of failed US banks accused of putting profits over safety…
““Why did you let things get this bad? Why did you ignore admonitions from regulators?” said Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chair of the Senate banking committee. “There is a simple answer — the same answer we find to most questions about big banks’ failures: because the executives were getting rich.””
https://www.ft.com/content/26ed4163-84d3-45af-a784-8aeb4abc288b
“IEA says oil price downturn ignores looming supply crunch.
“Weeks of declining oil prices due to concerns over a possible recession clash with the outlook for scarce supply and robust demand later in the year, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.”
“‘Halt button’ hit on drilling in US oil and gas slowdown…
“An oversupply of equipment is a stark sign that drilling in US shale energy regions is levelling off, as producers respond to lower commodity prices and pressure from Wall Street to direct spare cash to shareholders.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d66f640c-babf-48e2-b13f-75006df3bc53
“Fires Rage in Canada’s Main Energy Hub, Threatening Region’s Oil Production.
“Shifting fires across Canada’s main energy-producing province are prompting drillers to throttle back production once again, more than a week after the spate of blazes began, and officials are warning of worsening conditions ahead.”
“Why Britain’s contorted planning system is forcing developers to buy up trout farms… Housebuilders warn that red tape is bringing industry to a halt…
“Developers have realised they can get around so-called nutrient neutrality restrictions, which ban them from increasing the amount of nitrates in the water supply, by buying up trout farms – and then closing them down.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/16/michael-gove-housebuilding-collapse/
“After enduring shortages, Britain to review horticulture and egg supply…
“Britain, grappling with a cost-of-living crisis and food inflation not seen for almost 50 years, will review its horticulture and egg supply chains after shoppers faced shortages, the government said on Tuesday… The tight conditions have helped to push British food price inflation to levels not seen since 1977…”
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-review-horticulture-egg-supply-chains-2023-05-16/
“A former Tory minister said families don’t have a ‘right’ to low food prices as she told people to live within their means.
“Ann Widdecombe said that people who cannot afford to make a cheese sandwich should not ‘do the cheese sandwich’.”
“ECB to hike twice more and more could come as inflation stays hot: Reuters poll.
“”The messaging from several ECB speakers … has clearly been on the hawkish side since the meeting, and their consumer expectations survey just showed higher inflation expectations,” noted Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Europe economist at Bank of America. “Unless something breaks, we can only reiterate our view that – despite the cracks appearing in the outlook – two more 25 bps hikes are the lower bound.””
“UBS flags $17 billion hit from Credit Suisse takeover…
“UBS estimates a negative impact of $13 billion from fair value adjustments of the combined group’s assets and liabilities. UBS also sees $4 billion in potential litigation and regulatory costs stemming from outflows, the bank said.”
“South Africa can keep coal fired plants running longer, climate committee says.
“South Africa’s climate policy body on Monday suggested the government could delay retiring its ageing coal-fired power plants to address electricity shortages and said a power crisis had put the country on track to meet its climate goals anyway.”
“Fighting continues to rage between government troops and rebel militia forces in Sudan, despite efforts to impose a ceasefire.
“And this programme has heard increasing reports of civilians being murdered and raped, along with large scale looting.”
https://www.channel4.com/news/sudan-reports-of-civilians-atrocities-as-fighting-rages
“Sudan: Vendors, farmers suffer amid rising prices and fuel shortages.
“North of Khartoum, in the Sudanese Nile River State, the combat zone seems far away but its destructive effects are deeply felt. The 1-month long fighting has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country, where one in three people already relied on humanitarian assistance before the war.”
“Tunisia Faces Economic Crisis Amidst Migrant Surge…
“Located at the northernmost point of the continent, Tunisia is a popular departure point for refugees attempting to reach Europe via Italy, many of whom come from Sub-Saharan Africa, Syria, and Sudan… To make matters worse, Tunisia’s political and economic situation has been struggling since its democratic turn following the Arab Spring protests in 2011…”
https://theowp.org/tunisia-faces-economic-crisis-amidst-migrant-surge/
“Turkey’s economic crisis expected to deepen after Erdoğan tops poll.
“The Turkish lira, which has devalued steadily in recent years including halving in value in one year alone, dropped close to a historic low as markets opened the morning after Sunday’s vote.”
“A French investigating magistrate on Tuesday issued an international arrest warrant for Lebanon’s central bank chief Riad Salameh, a source close to the case said.
“Salameh earlier failed to appear for questioning by French investigators who want to know how he amassed sizeable assets across Europe, his lawyer said.”
“Imran Khan’s Face Off With Pakistan Army Escalates After Arrest.
“Since his ouster as prime minister last year, Imran Khan has played a high-stakes game of challenging Pakistan’s powerful military. Now it’s reaching a breaking point… All the while, Pakistan’s historic economic crisis is only worsening, with stark examples of surging prices, poverty and desperation emerging by the day.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imran-khan-face-off-pakistan-100000153.html
“At least 16 killed as Pakistan tribes clash over coal mine…
“Darra Adam Khel is in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Kohat district, home to a large coal reserve. The area was part of the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), a semi-autonomous region that was merged with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2018.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/16/at-least-16-killed-as-pakistan-tribes-clash-over-coal-mine
“Bangladesh rocked by power cuts as Cyclone Mocha hits LNG supply…
“Millions of Bangladeshi citizens have been hit by frequent power cuts in recent months, as erratic weather patterns and high global energy prices have made fuel supply to power plants unreliable. The outages have irked residents, leading to protests across the country in recent months.”
“Argentina raises interest rate to 97% as it struggles to tackle inflation.
“Central banks across the globe are struggling to rein in inflation, but it’s a particular problem in Argentina, where the annual inflation rate soared above 100% last month. That’s the highest level since the early 1990s, and currently, Venezuela and Zimbabwe are the only two countries experiencing higher inflation than Argentina…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/15/business/argentina-interest-rates-inflation/index.html
“Venezuelan bills for power and water soar as subsidies cut back.
“Venezuelans are battling fast-rising utility bills as subsidies from the cash-strapped government dwindle, leaving many paying large chunks of their salaries for electricity and water despite regular blackouts and mains water shut-offs.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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I had been following for a couple months now the reports of pirated oil tankers, along with the US-Iran “seizures” of each other’s tankers.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/3/iran-seizes-second-oil-tanker-in-a-week-amid-us-confrontation
I wonder how long before other shipping, like freighters with foodstuffs will be pirated.
Yeah i things will get a bit crazy with everything soon. Yeah i have been watching that to with the oil being stolen its kinda interesting to watch for sure.
Rain, I read recently that a tanker was seized off Congo, too:
“Pirates who seized a Danish oil tanker off Congo last week have kidnapped six crew and abandoned ship, the French navy said Friday.”
https://www.zawya.com/en/world/africa/pirates-kidnap-six-crew-from-danish-ship-off-west-africa-o0zvjdl0
Even if foodstuffs themselves are not yet being targeted, decreasing stocks of fish may already be exacerbating piracy: “In east Africa, where fish populations are declining due to warmer seas, piracy rates have increased.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/impact-of-warmer-seas-on-fish-stocks-leads-to-rise-in-pirate-attacks