“A rare earth war simmers as China reportedly to impose export ban.
“Apart from the chip war between the US and China, a rare earth war seems to be brewing. China may impose an export ban when importers are looking to reduce their reliance on China, the largest rare earth exporter in the world.”
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230406VL206/china-rare-earth.html
“US Gets New Levers From Japan to Curb China’s Chip Ambitions.
“Japan’s decision to join the US and Netherlands in restricting exports of chipmaking gear to China is giving the allies powerful new weapons to deploy in the escalating technology war… Japanese companies control key steps in the semiconductor supply chain…”
“The US wants to elevate China to ‘developed country’ status; Beijing disagrees.
“The US House of Representatives has voted to strip China of its status as a developing country. China has condemned the move and refuses to join the ranks of developed or “wealthy” nations. At stake are critical economic and geopolitical issues for the world’s second-largest economy.”
“In the dark depths of the Pacific, US submarines patrol with an eye fixed firmly on China…
“As concerns over an accelerating nuclear arms race in Asia grow, a CNN crew was given exclusive access to the USS Mississippi, one of what Jablon said are 49 fast-attack submarines in the US fleet, to witness how Washington is stepping up preparations to deter a potential conflict in the region.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/05/us/us-navy-submarine-pacific-china-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
“If US, China really had a full-scale war, it would be suicide…
“…[the] reason why we’re now entering a very dangerous period is that there will be an election in Taiwan in January next year, and the most likely victor is Lai Ching-te. He once made it clear that Taiwan is going to become an independent country. Would Chinese military force seek to prevent that? I think so.”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1288613.shtml
“Can China’s new premier raise the birth rate and avoid a demographic collapse?
“…Just as a baker cannot make bread without enough flour, Li cannot deliver growth without enough labour. Population ageing alone could cause GDP growth to fall to 3 per cent by 2028, and that does not account for the other economic “grey rhinos” that Li is likely to face, including a housing bubble collapse and a government debt crisis.”
“Copper prices down with global growth concerns…
““General downward sentiment and continued lack of momentum out of China is bringing metals down to their fundamental levels, erasing some of the risk-on sentiment that we saw take place last week,” said Daria Efanova, head of research at broker Sucden Financial.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-prices-down-with-global-growth-concerns/
“Global diesel prices fall as economic slowdown intensifies.
“Global prices for middle distillates such as gas oil and diesel are falling as the economy slows, more refineries come onstream, and exports from Russia are re-routed and replaced by fuel from the Middle East.”
“WTO sees ‘subpar’ 2023 global trade growth…
“WTO’s chief economist Ralph Ossa …added that vulnerabilities recently revealed in the banking sector posed risks, warning that “rapidly increasing interest rates could create further strains in financial markets, (with) implications for international trade”.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wto-sees-subpar-2023-global-121019868.html
“Global economy heading for weakest growth since 1990, says IMF boss.
“The global economy is heading for the weakest period of growth since 1990 as higher interest rates set by the world’s top central banks drive up borrowing costs for households and businesses, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.”
“‘Something is going to go boom’: IMF chief warns…
““There is simply no way that interest rates would go up so much after being low for so long and there would be no vulnerabilities. Something is going to go boom,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told POLITICO’s Ryan Heath…”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/06/imf-fragile-global-economy-inflation-svb-00090797
“Bond-market’s most deeply inverted gauge is pointing to ‘large slowdown in economic growth’ and ‘deep recession’.
“…the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, which was around 155.8 basis points below zero as of Wednesday… The large difference between the two rates is pointing to the likelihood of a “deep recession,” according to Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor…”
“More signs are pointing to an imminent slowdown in the US economy….
“The ADP jobs report showed 145,000 jobs were added in March, missing expectations by 65,000 and well below February’s reading of 261,000. The weakness in economic data didn’t stop there. Job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time since May 2021…”
https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/more-signs-pointing-imminent-slowdown-225741537.html
“Major U.S. railroads hauled -10% fewer shipping containers in the first twelve weeks of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, according to the weekly traffic report from the Association of American Railroads.”
https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1643655971573575680
“Banking Crisis Adds To Shale Industry Pessimism.
“… persistent cost inflation, oil-field labor shortages, low natural gas prices, and rising fears of a recession are casting a pall over the shale patch. The banking crisis is the cherry on top, sparking concerns about capital availability.”
“North Sea Oil Production Could Fall By 80% By 2030.
“Offshore Energies found that 90 percent of offshore firms had reduced their spending in the North Sea, amounting to billions in total. It determined that the lower level of investment could result in a decrease in production of 80 percent by 2030, equivalent to 500 million fewer barrels of oil if the government cannot attract more funding to the waters.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/North-Sea-Oil-Production-Could-Fall-By-80-By-2030.html
“Britain’s energy retail sector remains in crisis territory…
“Households’ energy debts are rising fast. As a result, analysts warn cash flow will probably remain under strain at companies that don’t have access to external funding. Even well capitalised companies may cut their losses and exit. Shell, for example, is reviewing its British supply business.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5bd01c26-7f73-4e1a-92ca-355309293b9b
“Food inflation is still intensifying in Europe and may be the key driver of price growth now, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday.
““I look at food, where inflation pressure is probably its most intense. And it’s still rising now,” Lane told a university lecture in Cyprus. “I don’t think we are yet at the peak of food inflation.””
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/euro-zone-food-inflation-still-intensifying-ecbs-lane/
“Macron’s favourite Paris restaurant set ablaze in ‘Black Thursday’…
“La Rotonde – the place where the head of state celebrated his 2017 presidential election win – was hit by rioters in the early afternoon. “They arrived wearing balaclavas and used Molotov cocktails to start the blaze,” said an eyewitness.”
“Grievances mount in Europe with future wealth in doubt.
“In separate speeches last year, the leaders of France and Germany warned their citizens of hard times ahead… But if the aim was to prepare their people for future sacrifices, their messages have fallen on deaf ears — as shown by the biggest German strikes over pay in decades and widespread French anger at Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age.”
https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2023/04/896739/grievances-mount-europe-future-wealth-doubt
“‘Everything is being stripped and stolen’: South Africa’s run-down city of gold… Wealthy residents flee Johannesburg as it descends into lawlessness and infrastructural collapse…
“…rising anger over Johannesburg’s decay will be a significant factor in national elections next year, where the ANC are in danger of losing the governing majority that it has held since 1994.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7e267ded-2320-4e6c-aa26-1c4be9df192c
“Tunisia stokes fears of economic collapse after rejecting IMF ‘diktats’…
“James Swanston, an economist at Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy, said the rejection meant that “support that is desperately needed by the economy will not be coming”. He added that without the IMF loan, and as foreign reserves dwindled, “there was a greater risk of a sharp and disorderly fall in the value of the dinar”, the Tunisian currency.”
https://www.ft.com/content/b10ba70e-5644-4290-a2e8-63754d5d2cad
“Egypt inflation seen hitting all-time high in March.
“Egypt’s headline inflation rate is set to hit an all-time high in March, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, following a continued shortage of foreign currency after more than a year of devaluations of the Egyptian pound.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypt-inflation-seen-hitting-all-time-high-march-2023-04-06/
“Pakistan’s economic crisis likely turning into catastrophe, Atif Mian warns.
“Economist Atif Mian on Wednesday claimed that the $350 billion Pakistan economy is in a “tailspin, going from crisis to catastrophe” as the nation teeters on the brink of a default as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout hangs.”
“Why Argentina’s Inflation Is Up Over 100% Again…
“Argentina is on the brink of another recession this year as a historic drought comes on top of inflation. Private economists see gross domestic product, or GDP, dropping 3% in 2023. Inflation in triple-digit territory is wiping out Argentines’ paychecks, shrinking their buying power and consumer spending.”
“Phaseout of coal power far too slow to avoid ‘climate chaos’, report finds…
“Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO, said insufficient progress was being made to avoid “climate chaos” and that plans for a sharp increase in the number of coal-fired plants in China would require even steeper cuts to the rest of the global fleet to meet the world’s climate goals.”
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I will be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread, although the news-cycle may have slowed down due to the Easter break.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It is an enormous help as the cost-of-living crisis ratchets up here in the UK.
Yay, both sets of clocks must have changed, these posts are coming in at a reasonable time for me 🙂
Am currently on the mend, from a long, nasty and very (very) painful sinus infection which went ballistic and had me calling an uber into the hospital ED at 6am.
10 hours later, 3 long IV drips, blood and snot tests, CT-scan etc whatever they did – it worked. I am no longer in danger of losing an eye, having emergency nasal surgery, or worse •́ ‿ ,•̀
So can rest (pain-free) and catch up on my web-reading.
Economy(ies)? I’m actually having trouble believing it’s in such a bad way, when my Facebook Ads are trying to sell me an obscenely expensive fridge shaped like a giant cat 🙂
My Uber was quick convenient and hey? affordable! and the free public hospital system, worked well enough when I needed it. I also figure, that it might have been so slow because it’s a major teaching University hospital, so every test, scan etc has to go through about 6 med students, 4 junior registrars, 3 medical technicians and 2 senior nurses, (all with their own gaggle of trainees) and a Partridge in a Pear Tree, before being signed off by the Chief specialist 🙂
Our Reserve Bank has paused it’s hikes, but warned of more to come, inflation high but still single-digit, I can still afford summer fruits even in off-season, but no meat other than chicken or bacon. Seems our chickens and pigs are thriving in cheap enough abundance, but lamb and beef of whatever cut, are luxury items. Bacon and egg toasties – still a cheap meal.
Weather? After 2-3 months of approaching ‘normal’, the 4-day Easter long weekend is “Cold, wet and stormy” all along the south-east. And I thought the La Nina was OVER? Ha!
Perhaps I’m still a little high from the hospital meds, (no supply-chain issues there!) but I promise I will be back to my usual gloomy-doomerism by next week 🙂
Rain, I was just thinking we hadn’t heard from you in a while. I am very sorry to hear of your sinus woes. It all sounds hideous and of course pain and infection up there are bound to cause alarm, given proximity to brain and eyes. Long may the rosy afterglow of your hospital meds last!
I often wonder what will happen to all the people dependent on psych meds of various kinds when they become unavailable. I recall that there were shortages of Adderall and the schizophrenia med, Aripiprazole in the US last year, and at some point more gaps will surely appear. The numbers are mind-boggling. Google tells me that, “65 million Americans (1 in 5) are now prescribed medication to help them cope with stress, anxiety or depression.”
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2021/04/22/610924.htm
There will be a lot of suffering. 😬
Do you know of Max Berman? He’s an energy analyst who has 2 truths to share that the rest of the world is in denial about: there’s no “energy transition”, renewables are but another fossil fuel-enabled energy paradigm; lack of energy-investment infrastructure makes a recession inevitable, and therefore, as you say, there will be a lot of suffering. One other point he makes that is obvious, but since mainstream economists, including Nobel prizer Paula Krugman, insist there can be economic growth w/out growth in energy production, it needs to be stated: there has never been economic growth w/out growth in energy production, and no growth, no ability to pay off the world’s debilitating level of debt.
Rob, I agree! The de-coupling myth has been roundly debunked; Jeavons’ Paradox holds sway. Only by looking at individual nations can you fool yourself into thinking that energy consumption and economic growth are not symbiotic.
I follow Mr Berman on Twitter, as his in-depth knowledge of the oil industry nicely complements Gail Tverberg’s work. He, or least his on-line persona, seems quite prickly at times though, so I don’t engage with him personally. I may be horribly misjudging him!
“”I often wonder what will happen to all the people dependent on psych meds of various kinds when they become unavailable….There will be a lot of suffering.”
A common trope in post-apocalyptic fiction, is mentioning chronological ‘waves’ of mass deaths in the more industrialised societies.
From all I’ve read, the first wave will be the “medically dependent”, ie those needing medications, including street drug users. The junkies, the elderly, the diabetics, the mentally ill, the chronic diseases – eg chronic heart disease, Crohn’s disease.
The second wave, apparently will be untreated injuries and infections. Antibiotic dependent conditions that we take so much for granted for the last 60+ years. Including oral health, rotting teeth from poorer nutrition, abscesses etc and increase in vermin bites, fleas, lice and parasites from poor living conditions. We take modern sanitation so much for granted 🙂
Third wave will probably hit children, with ancient childhood scourges making a comeback with no more baby shots. Diphtheria, scarlet fever etc etc and polio in adolescents – 10-16 age group hit hardest by polio (because active growth hormone and thyroid hormones of pubescent growth spurts, increase the polio virus reproduction rate)
Hello Panopticon
A word about those coal plants from the Guardian….
It remains startling that such a newspaper keeps posting the same story year after year, referring to the Paris treaties that were already nonsensical when they were ‘signed’ with much fanfare.
Surely, the energy editors of this newspaper should fall asleep at some point when reading so many almost ‘Gregorian energy mantras’ that really slide off like water on your skin.
Coal and the UK… you’d say ‘ that rings a bell’ but nope….Same goes for that eternal lament about North Sea oil…. yes yes guess who is coming to ‘dinner to night’ ? That Oil.com is quite infromative by the way but it also really sticks to one ‘ energy paradox’ after another.
I guess that has to do with the deeply human need…. who knows, we might invent something…. then let’s set fire to ‘Macron’s restaurant’… didn’t work by the way was nothing but everyone was talking about it.
Really primitive by the way… just like that whole ‘extinction rebellion’ movement.
‘ There must be some kind of way outta here
Said the joker to the thief
There’s too much confusion
I can’t get no relief
The interesting question remains why that newspaper keeps beating that same drum.
Could nobody on that editorial staff think of anything ‘new’ about energy and raw materials?
The Guardian’s gonna Guardian, Zip. 😂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLV4_xaYynY
Ha! Excellent choice Zip!
but personally I prefer the Dylan version to Hendrix one 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7zQE2NpkZU
“didn’t work by the way,, was nothing but everyone was talking about it.
Really primitive by the way… just like that whole ‘extinction rebellion’ movement.”
Yeah – even we saw that all the way *upside-down-under* on the other side of the planet – we have a LOT of high-profile national news bubbling away at the moment (not related to climate, economy/social unrest) — yet they found time to shove in the report on Macron’s restaurant? Like *we* are going to care?
Not knowing much about French politics, culture or history, I don’t understand, let alone empathise with complaints about the pension reforms in particular, although a French friend of mine, told me, that France has not only contracted wages over time, (just like everywhere else), but has also increased taxes over the same timeframe – which other countries haven’t, or at least not to the same degree – making the “loss of prosperity” and “cost of living pressures” feel worse in real economic terms. And besides, everybody hates Macron, he only got in because he was slightly better than Le Pen, or so they tell me.
Only thing i can think of this morning thread is that it looks like a bunch of dogs fighting over a bone and pissing on each other. McDonald’s has layoffs and Disney troubles might just be starting. Word has it from an insider that they were caught in the ftx crypo crash now they have lots of debt they are covering up. I do not think the crypto crashes are far from done. I can only use the line from Jurassic park when things go wrong when the computer is shuts everything down hold on to your butt!
“Only thing i can think of this morning thread is that it looks like a bunch of dogs fighting over a bone and pissing on each other.” That about sums it up, Heather. 😂
Btw, my apologies – your comments keep being held up in moderation and I have no idea why.