“Businesses are increasingly witnessing the impact of protest movements and civil unrest on their operations, a trend that is forecast to grow according to insurance company Allianz Global…
“Anger over growing social inequality and the cost-of-living, foundering faith in governments and institutions and increasingly polarized politics, together with a rise in activism and environmental concerns, are the main factors expected to fuel ongoing incidences of strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) around the world, according to the new report.”
https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/strikes-riots-and-protests-expected-to-rise-globally/
“Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, dubbed “Dr Doom”, has warned that the world is facing a looming “stagflationary debt crisis” that will be “the worst of all worlds for workers”.
“Speaking with ABC’s The Business on Thursday, Dr Roubini said the “perfect storm” of high inflation and rising interest rates could trigger a cascade of recession and debt defaults this year.”
“Major central banks return to inflation fight in February…
“February saw six interest rate hikes across six meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies. Policy makers in Australia, Sweden, New Zealand and Britain joined the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in lifting key lending rates by a total of 250 basis points (bps). All banks expected more hikes ahead.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/major-central-banks-return-inflation-fight-february-2023-03-02/
“[US] Mortgage rates jump back over 7% as inflation fears drive yields higher.
“Growing fears that inflation is not cooling off are pushing bond yields higher. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury… As a result, mortgage applications from homebuyers have been falling for the past month and last week hit a 28-year low…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html
“UK house prices last month saw their biggest annual decline since November 2012, in the latest sign of the lasting pain that the ill-fated “mini” budget conceived by former Prime Minister Liz Truss inflicted on Britain’s property market.
“The average price of a house fell 1.1% to £257,406 ($310,000) in February compared with a year earlier, lender Nationwide said Wednesday.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/economy/uk-house-prices-nationwide/index.html
“Europe’s warm winter could mean food shortages in UK…
“Farmers across southern Europe are alarmed at the prospect of heavy losses following a succession of northern high-pressure systems that have blocked seasonal rains from blowing in from the Atlantic. The low levels of rainfall during the winter months follows a severe drought and record heat last summer.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/europe-drought-water-food-shortages-summer-2023-t6jx9x8cz
“Protests force Norway’s energy minister to cancel UK trip.
“Norway’s energy minister on Wednesday canceled a trip to the U.K. because of a protest against a wind farm that campaigners say hinders the rights of the Sami Indigenous people to raise reindeer in Arctic Norway.”
“Energy crisis prompts further warnings by German chemical groups.
“Evonik and Covestro, which together employ more than 50,000 people, both said on Thursday that profits would fall in 2023 because of slowing demand for some products and high prices. Last week BASF, the world’s biggest chemical group by revenue, announced plant closures in Germany…”
https://www.ft.com/content/e936118a-eb9c-4269-a2f9-8fe64d14ba87
“Pressure mounts on ECB after inflation increase.
“A closely watched measure of inflation in the eurozone rose unexpectedly last month, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to double-down on its monetary tightening in the months to come.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pressure-mounts-on-ecb-after-inflation-increase-kr8gpdz79
“Corruption scandal rocks Spanish politics ahead of elections.
“A corruption scandal in the Canary Islands involving Socialist Party members, local businessmen, and former members of the military police has rocked the Spanish political arena three months before key regional and municipal elections.”
“‘An unimaginable tragedy’: Greece train crash death toll likely to rise…
“The Greek railway system was among an array of public utility companies that were privatised when the debt-stricken country narrowly avoided economic collapse a decade ago. With the network forced to work with a lack of staff, inadequate infrastructure and little automated signalling, officials in the transit sector warned a disaster was waiting to happen.”
“Migrants on Turkey-Italy route doubled in 2022.
“Turkey is accusing Greece of blocking migrants in the Aegean Sea, forcing them to take longer journeys directly to southern Italy. Crammed in the hold of large sail ships or rusty fishing boats, migrants travel on desperate journeys that can last as long as a week, with little food and water, after having paid smugglers thousands of euros.”
https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/47176/migrants-on-turkeyitaly-route-doubled-in-2022
“A shipwreck [off Italy’s SE coast] portends a new EU migrant crisis…
“…overall migrant numbers into the EU have surged after the lifting of pandemic restrictions around the world, and after the economic effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine hit many developing countries. Catastrophic flooding in Pakistan and the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan have only added to the numbers of people fleeing their home country.”
https://www.ft.com/content/74735c34-84f9-41eb-81f0-ba4107ef6879
“Migrants made homeless in Tunisia purge plead for help.
“Natasha has nothing to return to in her native Sierra Leone, and nowhere to go but a grim camp in Tunisia’s capital since President Kais Saied announced a crackdown on migrants… Saied last week ordered “urgent measures” against them, sparking mass evictions by landlords fearing heavy fines and even prison.”
https://www.africanews.com/2023/03/03/migrants-made-homeless-in-tunisia-purge-plead-for-help/
“Egypt raises fuel prices amid spiraling economic crisis
“Egypt’s oil ministry has announced a rise in the price of fuel effective Thursday, as the Arab world’s most populous nation struggles with inflation and is sapped dry of dollars… In under a year, the Egyptian pound has lost half of its value, propelling annual inflation in the import-dependent country to 26.5 percent in January…”
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/egypt-raises-fuel-prices-amid-spiraling-economic-crisis
“Clashes in Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camp as security void looms
“Deadly clashes erupted in the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon overnight on Thursday, leaving at least one killed, and adding to the wave of economic and political instability in Beirut.”
“Israeli Protesters Hit With Stun Grenades, Water Cannons; 53 Arrested Across Country…
“Mounted police faced off with demonstrators breaching barricades as traffic piled up, with live footage showing police dragging protesters off the road to shouts of “Shame” and “We are the majority and we are out on the streets.””
“Protests, fights break out in Georgian parliament over ‘foreign agents’ bill…
“The draft law would require any organisations receiving more than 20% of their funding from overseas to register as “foreign agents”, or face substantial fines. Critics have said it is reminiscent of a 2012 Russian law that has since been used to crack down on civil society.”
“Risk of Hyperinflation in Iran…
“The causes of inflation in Iran are complex and multifaceted; attributing the inflation to only one factor is not academically acceptable. Over the past decade, foreign resource restrictions, backbreaking sanctions and supply of money unrelated to production have darkened the prospects of inflation management.”
https://financialtribune.com/articles/domestic-economy/117312/risk-of-hyperinflation-in-iran
“Pakistani Delegation Due In Tehran For Crisis Talks Over Gas Pipeline Delay.
“A delegation from Pakistan is due in Tehran soon for crisis talks to avert a possible $18 billion fine to Pakistan for its part in delaying the transfer of Iranian gas… It is not clear why Iran is insisting on the completion of the pipeline while it has a natural gas shortage at home.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202303011378
“More than 5 million people will be close to famine as Pakistan economy verges collapse, UN says.
“Pakistanis have a proud tradition of feeding the hungry. But as the country approaches economic default, lines for free meals are growing longer even in once-prosperous cities.” [Audio]
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/03/01/pakistan-economy-famine
“Markets Brace for Pakistan Default Risk as $7 Billion Debt Looms.
“Pakistan was downgraded deeper into junk by Moody’s Investors Service this week as the country faced its worst economic crisis in decades, with foreign reserves plummeting and inflation soaring to a record high. Authorities in Pakistan are relying on a bailout loan from the IMF to stave off a default, which has remained elusive.”
“Families reduce food given to children: hunger crisis in Sri Lanka deepens.
“The economic crisis in Sri Lanka has escalated into a severe hunger crisis, with half of families in the country forced to reduce the amount of food they provide for their children, according to a survey by Save the Children.”
“Myanmar Cuts Power to Businesses So Students Can Study at Night.
“Myanmar’s businesses will be left without power for five hours a night for much of this month to allow students to burn the midnight oil, a stark illustration of how energy shortages are forcing tough choices and worsening already acute economic pain.”
“Power cut hits nearly 40% of Argentine households.
“About 40% of Argentine households were reported to have been left powerless Wednesday afternoon amid unprecedented heat following “several failures in the interconnected system” stemming from a fire that “disturbed a 500 kw high voltage line that connects Campana with General Rodríguez” in the province of Buenos Aires…”
https://en.mercopress.com/2023/03/02/power-cut-hits-nearly-40-of-argentine-households
“Violent protests cost miner $118 million in lost sales [Peru].
“Peru-based miner Minsur S.A. has lost $118 million in sales after its San Rafael de Puno tin mine was forced to shut operations in January due to violent protests that followed the impeachment of the country’s former president… The mine, which produces about 9% of Minsur’s global tin, is located near many of the most intense protests.”
“Two dead, dozens of police held hostage in Colombia in protest against oil company.
“A police officer and civilian were killed during violent protests in Colombia’s Caqueta province on Thursday, and 79 officers and nine oilfield workers were taken hostage by members of rural communities, the government said. The violence erupted in part of the San Vicente del Caguan municipality, where members of rural and Indigenous communities blocked access to an oil field…”
“Protesters in Nigeria demand action over alleged election fraud.
“Crowds of young people marched to the National Collation Centre in Abuja on Wednesday — Nigeria’s seat of power — protesting against an alleged list of problems with Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections. At the top of that list are claims that voting machines were deliberately prevented from transmitting results to Abuja, and voter intimidation by thugs.”
“Resource Shortages Likely To Disrupt Critical Supply Chains In South Africa.
“Water, electricity, and fuel supplies have come under pressure in South Africa from deficiencies in infrastructure, atypical climate patterns, and global supply chain disruptions. Manufacturing and agriculture will continue to experience power cuts in municipalities struggling to distribute water, which requires electricity for operations and transport.”
“Food Crisis Looms as Farmers Buckle Under Power Cuts [South Africa].
“Farmers in the KwaZulu-Natal province are warning of a possible food security crisis fueled by rotational power cuts, reports eNCA. Farmers are calling for interventions before the issue gets out of hand. The agricultural sector is the third-largest contributor to South Africa’s GDP and is among the worst hit by rolling blackouts.”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202303020020.html
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back over the weekend with a “Climate” thread.
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hello Panopticon
Just to start with Pakistan.
If you listen to the radio interview about the food aid and free meals restaurants you will understand the gravity of the situation.
By the way, Pakistan has been dangling over on the ladder for decades.
A while ago, I made a docu about our second-hand clothes market. The textiles and shoes we throw away used and well in recycling raffles.
That’s a whole world kind of mirroring how it all works.
1. what is still as good as new stays in Europe
2. Second quality goes to Africa
3. What is really worn out goes to you guessed it Pakistan and Afghanistan!
I followed the lines to the ‘local’ markets in Pakistan and Africa. Made a lot of money. Instructive route I can assure you 🙂
Meanwhile in France
Restos du Coeur
From 3 to 5 March, Restos volunteer teams will be present in more than 7,000 supermarkets to collect food and hygiene products. The number of people receiving food at the Restos du Cœur has increased by 22% during the “first three months” of the winter 2022/23 campaign compared to last year, to 2.4 million users with a sharp increase in families with very young children.
More than half the people hosted by the Restos du Cœur are under 25 years old. “Inflation and the energy crisis are hitting hard those who were already precarious and others who are becoming so”. The association welcomes “more and more people who are working but still cannot make ends meet”. During winter, the association noted a rise in the number of very young children among families. In November, there were 110,000 children under the age of three and their number increased by 16% in three months. The aim of the association, founded by Coluche in 1985, is to collect 9,000 tonnes of food and hygiene products.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/social/restos-du-coeur-hausse-de-22-des-personnes-accueillies-cet-hiver-20230302
That is a bleak vignette of need in France, Zip, but at least there is a social safety net of sorts and charities able, for now, to step in where needed.
Our western economies are fraying around the edges but poor Pakistan is really circling the drain. The IMF is still playing hardball with them, too:
“The Pakistani rupee has touched a record low, while a bigger-than-expected interest rate rise [now highest in Asia at 20%] has failed to revive its markets as the South Asian country struggles to unlock critical funding from the International Monetary Fund.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/3/2/pakistani-rupee-hits-record-low-amid-wait-for-imf-fund
As they say, ‘poverty is relative’.
Australia has a homelessness crisis too,
https://youtu.be/yk4eWjYVNYg
A finance news bulletin sound-bite said last night that “While officially not in recession, but it sure well feels like it!”
An example of how gross financial transaction activity artificially inflates GDP and other economic ‘indicators’.