“China is home to 16 of the 20 global regions most vulnerable to climate change, according to data published on Monday, with some of the world’s most important manufacturing hubs at risk from rising water levels and extreme weather…
“The industrialised Chinese coastal province of Jiangsu, which accounts for a tenth of China’s GDP, was ranked the world’s most vulnerable territory, followed by neighbouring Shandong and the major steel production base of Hebei. The flood-prone central province of Henan was fourth…
“The highest ranking non-Chinese region was Florida in 10th place, with California 19th and New York 46th. Nine territories from India were also in the top 50.”
“Impact on global growth from China’s reopening will be ‘limited’.
“…Pushpin Singh, economist at the CEBR, said that China would not be “carrying the world on its back” as during the 2008-09 financial crisis when Beijing turned on the spending taps to help stimulate world growth.”
“Our world is becoming economically fragmented…
“Even though globalisation may have peaked, it is far from being wholly reversed, and Western countries need to stop weaponising trade and economic policy. Nations should also lower their trade barriers.”
“I’m sticking with my prediction of a recession in Ireland and globally this year despite the optimism… Monetary data is signalling red alert regarding our economic prospects over the coming 18 months.
“In the eurozone, the six-month rate of decline of real narrow money is close to record levels. In the past, weakness in this measure has preceded economic weakness. And, across the G7 and E7 economies, real narrow money [M1 in the US] is declining at rates greater than the declines seen after the tech bubble popped in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008.”
“Empty containers are piling up at major ports around the world as slowing economies weigh on shipping demand…
“The docks in Shanghai port are filled with empty containers, and many must be moved to nearby Taicang port, a dock operator at Shanghai told. “We haven’t seen such a scene for years,” he said.”
https://indiashippingnews.com/empty-containers-pile-up-at-global-ports-as-trade-slows/
“China may be on brink of supplying arms to Russia, says Blinken.
“The US has said it believes China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine, prompting a direct warning against doing so from the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to China’s top diplomat.”
“Liz Truss urges west to safeguard Taiwan security ‘before it’s too late’…
“Her keynote speech is being seen as an attempt to rebuild her political reputation, but also to add to pressure on her successor, Rishi Sunak, to take a stronger stance against Beijing. More hawkish Conservative MPs have called on Sunak to reclassify China as a “threat” instead of a “systemic competitor”…”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/17/liz-truss-japan-china-taiwan-security
Edit: I have just removed an article I posted in which Kamala Harris accuses Russia of crimes against humanity in Ukraine and promises to bring the perpetrators to heel. I posted it, and the two above, just to illustrate that there is a ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions generally but I realise that I am treading on thin ice and I do not want to be seen to be endorsing the accusations of any one side over another, hence the deletion.
My preference is ever for the overview!
“Five arrests as thousands protest in Oxford [UK] against Low Traffic Neighbourhood ’15-minute cities’…
“The controversial LTNs have attracted huge outcry since being introduced in the city last year… Traffic filters are set to be trialled in six locations next year. There’ll be no road closures but cars will be fined if caught driving through certain areas unless they have a permit.”
“Researchers from the University of Leeds say lessons learned during wartime can be useful in the fight against climate change.
“Records from the Second World War show that compulsory food rationing was more acceptable to the UK public than voluntary changes to diet when resources ran short.”
“War, drought, staff shortages: why the price of milk has soared in the UK…
“The UK’s headline rate of inflation may be easing, according to last week’s figures, after a third successive monthly decline to 10.1% in January. However, it remains close to the highest level in 40 years as prices for food, drink and other basic essentials keep the pressure on households.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/20/why-the-price-of-milk-has-soared-in-the-uk
“Why there is a national shortage of tomatoes as supermarket shelves left bare…
“There has been a shortage of eggs on our supermarket shelves for months and now there are concerns about a national shortage of tomatoes… The current tomato shortage in the UK is reportedly down to rising energy costs, with tomato growers struggling to afford to heat their greenhouses because of the expense…”
“Britain’s medicines shortage crisis is deepening, with an unprecedented 70 commonly taken drugs now out of stock, according to the latest data.
“Over the past 12 months, supply problems have hit crucial antibiotics, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) drugs, painkillers and over-the-counter cold and flu remedies – but now certain antidepressants, stop-smoking pills and a sleeping tablet taken by millions have been added to the list.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11766417/Pharmacists-warn-vital-drug-shortages.html
“Cost of living crisis: ‘Deeply concerning’ rise in prescriptions left uncollected.
“The RPS survey of almost 270 pharmacists found half said they had seen an increasing number of patients ask them which prescription medication they could manage without because they could not afford to pay the charge. The survey also found one in two pharmacists reported an increase in the number of people not collecting their prescriptions…”
“Ireland’s central bank governor has defended the country’s world-beating economic growth against accusations that it is an artificial product of big US companies taking advantage of Dublin’s low taxes…
“The debate about Ireland’s economic outperformance flared up recently after the country’s 3.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP single-handedly prevented the eurozone economy from stagnating in the final three months of last year.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e1cfecd4-e429-4151-963e-0d172ed0e028
“IEA’s Birol warns of tighter energy supply [for Europe] next winter…
“”For this winter it is right to say that we are off the hook. If there are no last minute surprises, we should get through…maybe with some bruises here and there,” said Birol. “But the question is…what happens next winter?””
“Euro Area Braces for Era of Central-Bank Losses After QE Binge.
“The euro area’s central banks will disclose their first significant losses from a decade of money printing in the coming weeks, heralding a new era of scrutiny and the prospect of taxpayer bailouts… Euro-area losses would add to a list of examples globally…”
“A shift in fund flows from Japan will be felt around the world…
“Why has the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida nominated a comparative outsider to lead the BoJ, breaking with a long-held tradition of rotating between appointments from the Ministry of Finance and from within the ranks of the bank itself? Perhaps others did not want the job.”
https://www.ft.com/content/64ddc873-0458-4df4-ad1e-cdee396c9dd3
“India’s Economic Activity Cools in January Amid Slowdown Fears.
“India’s economic activity cooled off at the start of the year as higher borrowing costs tempered demand at home and abroad, signaling more pain ahead as the global economy slows down… Domestic recovery, that has been driving momentum so far, is getting wobbly.”
“Unprecedented financial crisis; dues of pension and dearness allowance will not be paid [Kerala, India].
“The Finance Department issued an order clarifying that the state government is in an unprecedented financial crisis and therefore cannot fulfill its promise to pay the pension revision arrears and dearness allowance arrears in the financial year.”
“Fuel shortage threatens power generation [Bangladesh]…
“… at the end of the day, industrial production is bound to suffer if energy supplies cannot be ensured. The problems with sourcing foreign currency might deepen as Bangladesh enters into an uncertain 2023, marked by soaring energy prices.”
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/editorial/fuel-shortage-threatens-power-generation-1676736278
“Sri Lanka income tax protests: unions threaten to shut country down.
“A collective of trade unions and professional associations representing high-income earning public servants has threatened to launch a nationwide general strike on March 01 if the government doesn’t address their concerns about a personal income tax hike.”
https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-income-tax-protests-unions-threaten-to-shut-country-down-112644/
“Pakistan economic crisis; Suzuki, GSK among other big firms to halt operations as raw materials, demand dwindle.
“In the past few months a number of Pakistan’s largest companies have had to halt operations due to raw material shortages and currency shortages, compounding the troubles of the nation’s struggling economy.”
“Economic crisis stalls China-Pakistan Economic Corridor programme.
“The CPEC project that was commenced a decade ago was held as a harbinger of prosperity for Pakistan. However, seven years later, many projects under the CPEC still remain non-starters while some of those being operational have become liabilities and are incurring losses.”
“President Kais Saied of Tunisia ordered Europe’s top trade union official to leave the North African country after she addressed protesters at a demonstration organized by an influential labor union…
“She called on the Tunisian government to negotiate with the UGTT leadership and to improve the economy, which has teetered on the brink of bankruptcy amid political instability that deepened after a parliamentary election last month in which only 11% of voters cast ballots.”
“Moroccans defy ban to protest surging cost of living.
“Moroccan trade union activists protested Sunday in the capital Rabat and other cities to denounce surging costs of food and fuel, defying a government ban against marches. Protesters from the Democratic Labour Confederation staged rallies outside their offices.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2254181/middle-east
“Since its launch in 2021, the usage of the eNaira — Nigeria’s digital currency — has refused to pick up, the International Monetary Fund has disclosed.
“According to the fund, only about eight per cent of eNaira wallets are in use, with an average transaction value of N53,000… When Nigeria launched its central bank Digital Currency, it became the second country after The Bahamas to launch a CBDC.”
https://punchng.com/enaira-adoption-slow-eight-per-cent-of-wallets-used-imf/
“Eskom has announced that power cuts will remain on stage 6 [South Africa] until further notice due to the breaking down of more generating units at several power stations.
“…the utility has been battling to keep up with the high number of system failures that have tripped a further eight units on Sunday. Spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said that six units had suffered breakdowns and were taken offline for repairs.”
https://ewn.co.za/2023/02/20/eskom-ramps-up-power-cuts-to-stage-6-until-further-notice
“Mass blackout in Cuba: a large part of the country is without electricity due to an electrical failure.
“A power outage This Saturday affects eleven of the 15 provinces of Cuba reported the state-owned Unión Eléctrica, after another blackout in half the territory this week… On Monday another blackout lasted five hours and it affected seven provinces also from the center to the east of the island due to a fault in the 220 KV (kilovolt) network.”
“From a secret safehouse, Peru’s Indigenous revolt advances.
“Two months into Peru’s angry insurrection, emotions have hardened. While the unrest has barely disturbed the late-night revelry in Lima’s beachside enclaves, roadblocks still rage across the countryside, scaring away foreign tourists and leading to shortages of gas and other staples… The impasse has given a jolt of self-confidence to Peru’s Indigenous movement.”
“The Developing World’s Coming Debt Crisis…
“The growing rivalry between China and the United States threatens to scupper meaningful and constructive reform of sovereign debt relief… If the Common Framework fails, toxic geopolitics will be to blame.”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/developing-worlds-coming-debt-crisis
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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Thank you. Justin, these events are non existent in my news feed and very helpful in getting a grip on world events
You are welcome, Vince!
Hello Panopticon
Thank you for the overview. In light of the ‘ big’ complex problems anyway, just a word about tomatoes and empty shelves. That might be a little more understandable for me as a simple soul. 🙂
I am referring to the situation in the Netherlands. This summer the news was full of rising energy costs and greenhouse farming. This is a major economic factor in the Netherlands. The country is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural and horticultural products after the US.
Big problems and the whole agribusiness was on insorts was the tenor. Energy costs in the semi gas Opec country the Netherlands!
I know the industry well… As in the UK a complex economy based on seasonal labor from Eastern Europe. Many illegal workers and poor housing and economic conditions…. But cheap tomatoes and peppers all year round! Tomato factory parks where mostly young Poles and Ukrainians worked 10 hour shifts.
Good thing I thought… away with that industry of glass greenhouses and lousy working conditions. the Dutch government was deaf to their wailing and would not give any ‘ energy’ support. Rightly so, because you would say that energy problems are ‘chronic’ problems.
But um… after the summer and autumn I heard little about it…. then no tomatoes and peppers in the winter. Who cares. I didn’t see any empty shelves even in France????
Well I will help you out of the dream….
…. Dutch agricultural exports in 2022: increased export value due to increased prices
News release | 24-01-2023 | 08:00
The Netherlands exported €122.3 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2022, 17.2% more than 2021. This is entirely due to price increases, due in part to the war in Ukraine and increased energy costs. Indeed, the volume of exports shrank by 0.5%. The Netherlands imported agricultural goods worth €88.2 billion, 23.5% more than 2021 – this increase is also due to price increases. This is according to the annual study by Wageningen Economic Research (WEcR) and CBS commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality…….
Now you again….. 🙂
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2023/01/24/nederlandse-landbouwexport-in-2022-gestegen-exportwaarde-door-gestegen-prijzen
“The country is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural and horticultural products after the US.”
I didn’t learn this until reading about the nitrogen protests last year and it blew my mind that such a small country was able to produce so much food.
Re the article about tomato shortages in the UK, in addition to the elevated energy costs required to grow them in UK greenhouses, it also mentions flooding and inclement weather undermining supplies from Morocco and Spain.