“‘Heat February’ likely to follow Germany’s warmest January on record so far [2022 was Germany’s joint-hottest year on record; lower gas consumption is the very thin silver lining].
“After seeing the hottest January so far since records began, meteorologists in Germany are now predicting a warmer-than-usual February, which could bring about problems for winter sports resorts…
“We are now experiencing hot spells and intensities that we would actually not have expected from climate models for a few decades,” said Andreas Becker, head of the DWD’s climate monitoring department.”
“Climate migrants: How even rich Bavaria cannot provide shelter from global warming.
““We took ketchup.” …This is the only food Karl Bretzendorfer remembers taking up to the attic where he spent 13 days trapped with his wife Irina, as the waters rose around them in what Chancellor Angela Merkel called “the flood of the century” in Bavaria, south-east Germany.”
“Netherlands on track for the rainiest January ever.
“The Netherlands is on track for the wettest January since weather services started keeping track of the rainfall. This month is already in the top 5 wettest Januaries ever recorded, and more rain is expected in the week to come, Weeronline reported.”
https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/24/netherlands-track-rainiest-january-ever
“Fish removed from ‘toxic’ Canvey Island lake where hundreds of dead fish found [Essex, UK]…
“The Essex lake was significantly impacted by extreme heatwave conditions last summer, which also caused thousands of fish to die across the UK. The lake was ‘so deprived of oxygen’ during the summer, that caused the dead fish.”
https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/fish-removed-toxic-canvey-island-8067147
“Satellite data shows sustained severe drought in Europe.
“Europe lacks groundwater – a lot of groundwater. The continent has already been suffering from a severe drought since 2018. This is confirmed by satellite data analysed at the Institute of Geodesy at TU Graz… The result of this cooperation shows that the water situation in Europe has now become very precarious.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/977646
“Water woes: Drought raises tensions between Spain and Portugal.
“In September of 2022, Spain announced that it would no longer fully honour the Albufeira Convention, a treaty on water transfers to neighbouring Portugal… Portuguese farmers are finding the decision difficult to accept, while environmentalists say it creates a major ecological risk.”
“The Costa Del Sol has been blanketed with a thick layer of snow less than a month after it registered record-breaking temperatures.
“The Spanish coastal strip recently experienced its warmest winter since records began, with temperatures reaching highs of 23°C on Christmas Day in Valencia and Castellon.”
“Similarly to Montenegro, 2022 in Serbia was also the 2nd warmest year on records (see data below).
“In Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina 2022 was instead the warmest year.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1617892604946927616
“The National Emergency Management Agency [of Nigeria], NEMA, said, yesterday, that flood disasters, in 2022, left over 2.4 million persons displaced and 662 dead.
“Director-General, NEMA, Mustapha Ahmed said… “As we are all aware, this event is taking place in the immediate aftermath of the devastating 2022 flood disaster which is unprecedented in the history of Nigeria.””
https://allafrica.com/stories/202301240193.html
“South Africans urged to bury dead within four days amid load shedding, heatwave…
“The South African Funeral Practitioners Association’s (SAFPA) national secretary-general Vuyisile Mabindisa urged people to bury their loved ones within four days of their death to ease pressure on funeral parlours, and to ensure that they are buried with minimal decay.”
“Cyclone Cheneso hits Madagascar and destroys roads to capital…
“Cyclone Cheneso continues to hit the island with more than 15,000 people affected to date. “I left my house because it was destroyed by the strong winds of the cyclone. The house tilted, so I ran away. My house was totally destroyed,” said flood victim Bonne Fehy.”
https://www.africanews.com/2023/01/24/cyclone-cheneso-hits-madagascar-and-destroys-roads-to-capital/
“Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season.
“The eastern Horn of Africa just saw an unprecedented fifth straight failed rainy season on record, making it the longest and most severe drought in 70 years of precipitation data. The region is likely headed for a sixth poor rainy season this spring, a new forecast warns.”
https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/famine-somalia-drought
“Drought hits Türkiye’s 3rd-largest city İzmir amid global warming.
“In İzmir, Türkiye’s third-largest city, which lies on the Aegean coast, levels in dam reservoirs sounded an alarm about a severe drought and no prospects of precipitation in the near future.”
“In the Middle East, temperatures are soaring. Will the region remain habitable?
“…“If we assume the business-as-usual scenario, we are going to face extreme heatwaves, the likes of which we haven’t seen before,” he says. “This scenario would be disastrous; some places can expect 60-degree temperatures [140F] from 2060, for several weeks at a time.”
“Pakistan’s Looming Water Crisis…
“The Islamic republic of Pakistan is running out of fresh water at an alarming rate, and authorities anticipate that is likely to suffer a shortage of 31 million acre-feet (MAF) of water by 2026. The shortfall will be for a devastating country with an agriculture-based economy [seems a bitter irony, given the deluge they’ve just endured – one that I am sure is not lost on the Pakistanis themselves!]”
https://islamabadpost.com.pk/pakistans-looming-water-crisis/
“Amid Pakistan food crisis, Balochistan facing acute drinking water shortage: Report.
“Amid the financial and food crisis in Pakistan, major regions of Balochistan are suffering from an acute shortage of drinking water as filtration plants installed have gone out of order due to “poor maintenance”, as per a report by The Express Tribune.”
“Warmer winters in the Kashmir Valley are leading to early flowering of the gul toor.
“The Kashmir Valley is experiencing warmer winters and as a result the flowering period for the Sternbergia vernalis flower has shifted from mid-March to mid-February. Changing climatic conditions have the potential to disrupt the plant-pollinator interaction…”
“Thousands swarm airport in South Korea and five die in Japan as snow and ice cause chaos in east Asia.
“Travellers face severe delays as planes, trains and cars are halted due to snowstorms and high winds, as temperatures plummet to -20C [-4F]. In Japan, the deaths of up to five people are being linked to the weather and thousands are forced to sleep in train carriages or stations.”
“26th January in Japan and more all time cold records fell:
“-13.3C [8.1F] Kuroiso; -16.4C Otawara (previous 11.9C ! POR since 1976); -13.5C Shioya; -14.4C Numata; -14.4C Ueda; -8.2C Yokkaichi; -12.3C Higashiomi; -16.8C Nagi ; -14.2C Imaoka. Additionally, many records of lowest max. fell yesterday.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1618369333079703552
“More than 1,000 people [now 5,500] evacuated from flood-hit Johor districts [Malaysia].
“The number of flood victims seeking shelter in relief centres in Johor state rose to 1,093 in the late afternoon on Tuesday, as several districts were inundated with rising river waters amid the heavy rain.”
“Tensions are running high in the far-north West Australian town of Derby as the clean-up begins following the state’s biggest flooding disaster on record.
“The small town of about 3000 people, more than 2000 kilometres north of Perth, has been cut off geographically from the outside world since ex-tropical cyclone Ellie hit the Kimberley region at the start of January.”
“Tolaga Bay residents still stranded as 22 roads remain closed following Cyclone Hale [NZ].
“Some families in Tolaga Bay are still stranded, two weeks on from the devastation of Cyclone Hale. There are 300 identified faults across the Tairāwhiti region, such as dropouts and damaged bridges, with 22 roads still closed.”
“January storms leave L.A. County flood-control dams at risk of overflowing.
“Now that the shock of a series of January storms has worn off, Los Angeles County officials face a herculean chore: Five reservoirs along south-facing San Gabriel Mountain slopes are filled with so much debris and soupy mud that they pose a flood risk to the communities below.”
“Texas refining facilities report upsets following tornado…
“Shell said it was experiencing an incident at its Deer Park chemicals facility following severe weather, according to a company tweet. Petroleos Mexicanos also reported operational upsets due to weather at its neighboring oil refinery, according to a company alert.”
“One more record of highest temperature for January tied today in Florida: Titusville 88F [31.1F].
“At the end of the month Florida will warm up again and might reach 90F and tie or beat the January State record of highest temperature. Stay tuned.”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1618438260937879552
“One example of this incredibly mild January in USA is New York City. Central Park hasn’t dropped below 28F/-2C this month. No trace of snow was recorded.
“Its average temperature so far is 42.86F (+9.16F above average) and it’s the warmest January on records (Jan 1932 42.0F).”
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1618318979482923009
“The US Federal Reserve is running its very first climate change experiment.
“The central bank this month announced details about how it will conduct a “pilot climate scenario analysis exercise” involving the six largest US banks: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo.”
“Climate Is Forcing the Most Risk-Aware Industry to Reinvent Itself.
“When it comes to climate impacts, the frontline of the finance industry is insurance. Last year’s payout from damages caused by extreme-weather events totaled $120 billion—about the same as the economic output of Kenya. And that’s a 50% increase over the previous decade’s average.”
“The race for resources in the Arctic.
“The Arctic ice is melting, opening up new shipping routes and exposing huge reserves of fossil fuels and rare earths.
The race to secure these natural resources has already begun.”
https://www.dw.com/en/the-race-for-resources-in-the-arctic/video-64491329
“Inuit warn of ‘rock concert-like’ noise from ships affecting Arctic wildlife…
“Ship noise can be caused by everything from propellers to hull form to onboard machinery. It can disrupt activities that marine mammals need to survive, by shrinking their communication space, causing stress and displacing them from important habitats.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/25/inuit-warn-noise-pollution-ships-arctic-narwhals
“Arctic Swedish mine poses threat to indigenous Sami.
“The indigenous reindeer-herding Sami people in northern Sweden say they are facing an existential threat from an iron-ore mine billed as a pivotal shift towards the EU’s green transition.”
https://euobserver.com/nordics/156623
“Norway plans to offer record number of Arctic oil, gas exploration blocks…
“Norway’s push to keep producing oil and gas comes as energy firms are under contradictory pressures, with a need on the one hand to produce hydrocarbons that are not from Russia, and on the other to limit the effects of climate change.”
“Faster than expected…
“This article explains why traditional climate science methods cannot keep up with rapid change. It provides an analysis of the psychological defences that prevent most climate scientists from admitting this in public when, unofficially, they all do and say they are afraid.”
https://medium.com/@JacksonDamian/faster-than-expected-9675203cf8ac
You can read the previous “Climate” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with an “Economic” thread.
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I find the Arctic fascinating. I do a lot of research on Siberia and the development of mining, gas and oil. Very complex because very little is written about it. The whole area was once developed mainly by forced labourers and later after the ‘Gulag period’ by ‘guest workers’ from many Soviet satellite states including many Ukrainians. Very bad conditions. A lot of foreign capital also flowed out this year especially from Yamal and some other explotaitesites. There is a lot of facile talk about the ‘enormous reserves’ that will be mined in no time. Surely Tverberg’s law applies here. In the few figures that come out about this, you are talking about over 120 euros per barrel to make and keep things profitable.
The Russian geological service sometimes provides reasonably reliable info on costs and extractability. To be honest, I expect that there will be many stranded assets. Fortunately because they are indeed extremely fragile ecosystems….
Should you find time I recommend watching this wonderful short documentary about my ‘favourite city’ in that area Norilsk. The big nickel mining town developed in the Stalin era and inaccessible by road. Now those are conditions…..
https://www.99.media/en/my-deadly-beautiful-city-norilsk-is-isolated-polluted-dark-but-for-many-that-call-it-home-the-beauty-of-norilsk-is-to-die-for/
Thanks, Zip. I’ve long been fascinated by Norilsk, often advertised as the most depressing place in the world to live. My assumption is that you would need a lot of vodka to make it through the day there. 😅
A lot of vodka yes 🙂 I also read *somewhere* that Norilsk was once second only to Warsaw as having the highest suicide rate in the world!
More recently, I read that with much of Siberia warming, its borders are retreating north a few metres per year, so that not only are critters like beavers moving north, but its leaving behind a rich soil and arable landscape — which China is interested in as more southern climes become either uninhabitable, desertified and no longer able to provide cropland or pasturelands. Will Siberia & southern Arctic regions become the ‘food bowl’ of the future?
Rain, I’ve heard that theory suggested but if we have runaway polar warming and collapsing jet streams, stuck weather patterns may make food production anywhere a challenge. Siberia’s future seems to be one of vast fires and thawing permafrost, the latter unfortunate both for methane emissions and local infrastructure.
Faster than expected. NS Sherlock! Ha!
https://medium.com/@JacksonDamian/faster-than-expected-9675203cf8ac
I have known it for awhile after following a handful of scientists. Even the Netflix documentary “Into the Ice” shows how many researchers do know that the ‘official’ climate models are not curving the way we expected them to, on the Greenland ice sheet. They even lost a life in confirming their suspicions with direct observations in that documentary.
We know there are too many data point uncertainties not included in the models, because we don’t have enough data or underlying knowledge to include them with enough mathematical certainty. ‘Educated guesses’ are not enough. Or alternatively, we want to think that a year like 2022, was just a ‘blip’, just an outlier on the graphs within range of natural variability. As a population health statistician, I often needed to delete the odd ‘outliers’, or any calculations around averages/trend lines etc would be skewed.
I appreciate the author’s sentiment – he means well – but I am unsure about haranguing the scientists to be more publicly outspoken – what can *anyone* do? What’s the point in telling the whole planet we are speeding up to becoming f*k*d sooner than predicted? Can individual govts or the IPCC or the UN or if ‘we all work together’ – we can somehow come up with solutions? Reminds me of the film “Don’t Look Up” (2021), which was hilarious in places, but in a gallows humour way.
Part of the problem, I suppose, is that climate scientists are highly specialised, working in silos. Independent systems-thinkers who pull the various strands together to draw conclusions about the totality are somewhat rare. Personally, in that vein, I like listening to Paul Beckwith and find most of his conclusions sensible.
If scientists en masse were more outspoken and succeeded in generating a real sense of panic then that would have all sorts of social and economic knock-on effects with markets crashing, insurance premiums and mental health problems skyrocketing… As you say, there isn’t much point as there isn’t a huge amount we can do, at least on the collective level.
Hey folks. New paper (below) with James Hansen as lead author.
For years I’ve feared for all my young nieces & nephews future even though the older ones are somewhat informed – more then their parents methinks. They’ve already seen some of that future here in BC with record smashing wildfire seasons 4-5 years ago then in Nov 2021 we had more records smashed to hell only it was unprecedented flooding (sky rivers). Months before the flooding we had deadly heatwaves and a small town {Lytton} broke the Canadian all time high temperature record 3 days in a row peaking at 49.6 C {121F} on day 3. The very next day the entire town burnt to the ground.
10C warming locked-in
New research from eminent climate scientist Prof James Hansen and colleagues suggests a planet killing event. This is based on current CO2 levels in the atmosphere, not on future emissions. ‘Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C.’
ABSTRACT
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-
feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2×CO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years. The enormity of consequences of warming in the pipeline demands a new approach addressing legacy and future emissions. The essential requirement to “save” young people and future generations is return to Holocene-level global temperature. Three urgently required actions are: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) purposeful intervention to rapidly phase down present massive geoengineering of Earth’s climate, and 3) renewed East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs.
https://justcollapse.org/2022/12/16/10c-warming-locked-in/
Welcome to the site, Famous Dr. Scanlon! That is a terrifying synopsis, although mostly in the theoretical sense as we’d all be too dead to worry about it. I did come across this study a few months ago, which gave me some, small hope that we could avoid rendering the planet Venusian:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/11/221116150633.htm
BC has been producing some staggering climate headlines these past few years. Hope you are managing to dodge the worst of the mayhem.