“The global economy is “on a razor’s edge” and risks falling into recession this year, World Bank officials have warned as the institution unveiled its latest projections for global growth…
““The risks that we warned of six months ago have materialised and our worst-case scenario is now our baseline scenario,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank economist responsible for the report…
“If the World Bank’s gloomy prognosis was realised, the current decade would become the first since the 1930s to experience two global recessions. The report follows similarly stark forecasts from the IMF.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0012b878-cdcd-446e-8c0c-c008709a11c1
“Majority of CEOs fear recession could be worse than the financial crisis.
“The vast majority of CEO respondents (98%) are bracing for an economic downturn characterized by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruption and ongoing COVID-19-related uncertainty, but appear split on its length, depth and severity. These are some of the findings of the EY CEO Outlook Pulse – January 2023 that underline the uncertainty that looks set to define the business environment in 2023.”
“A Myriad Of Uncertainties Are Set To Keep Oil Prices Volatile.
“Energy prices are expected this year to pick up where they left off in 2022—swinging wildly in volatile trading amid a whole host of uncertainties. Geopolitical uncertainties, China’s exit from three years of Covid restrictions, interest rate hikes from central banks, and looming recessions in many economies will continue to pull oil and natural gas prices in both directions, depending on the prevailing market sentiment.”
“Computer system glitch causes chaos after all flights grounded across US [a reminder of how brittle and vulnerable man-made complexity can be].
“The Federal Aviation Administration said it was working to restore its Notice to Air Missions system which alerts pilots of potential hazards along a flight route. Some 4,948 flights within, into or out of the US have been delayed, according to a flight tracking website, and 868 cancelled.”
“The average U.S. household owes more than $165,000 in debt, according to a new NerdWallet study.
“That amount of average household debt has pushed the national total to $16.5 trillion, a 7.65 percent increase from a year before. Study crafters also found that the credit card balances carried from month to month have gone up over the past year, now totaling roughly $460 billion.”
“Consumers Roll Over Debt Without Knowing Their Interest Rate.
“More US consumers are relying on their credit cards each month — and many are doing so without knowing the interest rates they’re paying. Around 46% of cardholders don’t pay off credit cards in full each month, according to data collected by Bankrate LLC in December, up from 39% a year earlier.”
“UK minister reassures Washington on restored stability, fiscal plans.
“Britain’s financial services minister sought to reassure U.S. counterparts on Wednesday that the UK’s bout of debt market instability last fall was a one-time event and it has returned to stable government and remains a solid partner for Washington and Wall Street.”
“Bank of England criticises UK banks’ risk management systems…
““During 2022, the market reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and volatility in the nickel and long-dated gilt markets, reinforced the importance of a robust risk culture and sound risk management practices at firms,” the letters stated. “However, despite regular messaging from the PRA on the subject, these events demonstrated that firms continue to unintentionally accrue large and concentrated exposures to single counterparties, without fully understanding the risks that could arise.””
https://www.ft.com/content/4758200d-4356-47f8-a8c3-8eee21b79ba8
“More than three quarters of a million UK households are at risk of defaulting on their mortgage payments in the next two years, the country’s top financial regulator has warned…
“The figures underline the pressures being felt by ever more people as a result of the cost of living crisis. If 770,000 households did default, that would mean about 9 per cent of the UK’s mortgages were overdue.”
https://www.ft.com/content/398fe5be-cf44-459c-83d1-5105adef7337
“Government introduces laws to mitigate the disruption of strikes on the public [UK government press release].
“Millions of hard-working people across the UK will be protected from disruptive strikes thanks to new laws introduced today, which will allow employers in critical public sectors to maintain minimum levels of service during strikes.”
“The NHS is not just in crisis, it’s in an emergency
“…we are facing an emergency on a national scale. This is not just about the unacceptable numbers of avoidable deaths, waiting times, bed shortages and intolerable conditions for medical staff. It is also threatening our understanding of what it means to be British.”
https://www.ft.com/content/733cc1ae-695d-4516-ac4a-5f86518fe4fb
“French people travel to Italy to buy medicines amid shortages.
“Several pharmacies in Ventimiglia, the closest accessible Italian town to the southern French border, are reporting an increase in the number of French customers visiting with prescriptions as France faces shortages of hundreds of common drugs.”
“Hardships grow for German consumers as gas shortages worsen.
“Germany’s capital Berlin and eastern regions are facing gasoline shortages and high fuel prices, as Russian oil has no longer been flowing to Europe since January 1. The PCK refinery in Schwedt, in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, which was previously supplied exclusively with Russian pipeline oil, is only running at around 50 percent capacity…”
https://www.trtworld.com/europe/hardships-grow-for-german-consumers-as-gas-shortages-worsen-64352
“German coal mine standoff escalates as police move on protesters.
“On Wednesday morning, officers in riot gear moved into Luetzerath, where hundreds of activists have been holed up trying to stop the expansion of the nearby Garzweiler coal mine run by energy firm RWE.”
“Nearly half of Europeans say their standards of living have ‘already’ declined as crises mount.
“The cost-of-living crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, the energy crunch, surging inflation and the coronavirus pandemic has become the greatest worry for European Union citizens, according to a new Eurobarometer that shows 45% of respondents are currently having “some” or “a lot” difficulties with their personal income.”
“Europe’s mild weather reprieve this winter may come to bite by summer.
“…the balmy conditions – which some meteorologists have described as the worst winter heat wave on record – come with a downside: Sharply lower snow cover and rainfall that leave the region vulnerable to drought, reduced hydropower generation potential, and possible logistical challenges on key river systems later in 2023.”
“Debt-heavy Asian companies are headed for a reckoning this year when $314 billion of bonds come due, just as refinancing costs for lower-rated firms have risen close to historic highs.
“Firms from India’s Vedanta Resources Ltd. to stressed property developers such as China Evergrande Group have US-currency debt maturing in 2023…”
“China’s Covid patients face medical debt crisis as insurers refuse coverage…
“Insurance companies have been reluctant to approve Covid-related claims after previously selling tens of millions of low-cost plans as the industry seeks to avoid liability for enormous payouts during an “exit wave” of cases. China’s health policy has also made it difficult for claimants to establish proof of infection.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c049eb2d-4455-4ed3-b775-2c6818ec5737
“Riots add to investors’ fears over Brazilian politics…
“The greater threat comes in the medium to long term. Lula won October’s election by the narrowest of margins, showing how deeply polarised Brasil has become. If the economy performs badly — and growth is certainly slowing this year — he will be less willing or able to push for unpopular reforms, especially any designed to raise government revenues or cut spending.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ebfa2685-48df-45df-af52-cffb872cb00b
“Peru protests spread to Cusco, gateway city to Machu Picchu…
“Clashes between protesters and police have broken out in Peru’s tourist city of Cusco as a month of demonstrations, which have now left at least 47 people dead, continued over the removal of the country’s ex-President Pedro Castillo.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/12/peru-protests-spread-to-cusco-gateway-city-to-machu-picchu
“Life in Cuba means living with constant blackouts.
“Electricity is being rationed in Cuba, with daily life dominated by power outages that can last 18 hours a day. It’s a frustrating situation, one that’s fuelling the biggest migration crisis since the revolution.”
https://www.dw.com/en/life-in-cuba-means-living-with-constant-blackouts/g-64277659
“South African power cuts worsen as Eskom extends worst-ever outages…
“Eskom said in a statement that 11 of its generators had suffered breakdowns since Tuesday morning. The beleaguered utility supplies the vast majority of South Africa’s electricity, relying mainly on an ageing fleet of coal-fired power stations that are unreliable and prone to faults.”
“Zambia extends electricity rationing to mining firms.
“Zambia has started rationing electricity supply to mining firms following reduced power generation after a big drop in water levels in lake Kariba, the chairman of state-owned power utility Zesco said on Tuesday.”
“Moroccan households’ confidence is at its lowest level since the 2008 global economic crisis…
“According to new data from Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP), the country’s Household confidence index, which tracks households’ attitudes on the state of the economy, dropped to 46 points at the end of 2022, down from 61 points the previous year.”
“‘Dangerous’ Tunisian droughts threaten food security…
“Since September only 110 million cubic meters of rain fell in Tunisia, about a fifth of the normal rate, and officials in the farmers union and the main trade union warn that grain crops will suffer – adding to existing problems of food supply.”
https://www.zawya.com/en/world/africa/dangerous-tunisian-droughts-threaten-food-security-nvd9qr7f
“Egypt’s pound plunges to new low as authorities try to stem currency crisis…
“Since the central bank said it would move to a flexible currency rate in October, the pound has lost nearly 35 per cent… The weakness of the pound is adding to the pain of millions of Egyptians as it fuels inflationary pressure, with urban inflation hitting 21.3 per cent in December, its highest level in years.”
https://www.ft.com/content/fa457ac5-2c92-4348-b686-3a04df721f4b
“Syrians struggle with soaring prices, currency collapse and fuel shortages.
“Syrians say they’re facing worse economic hardship than at any other time during more than a decade of civil war — even though the president’s regime has solidified its hold on much of the country.”
“People Fighting Over Sacks Of Flour In Pakistan Leads To Stampede Amid Severe Economic Crisis.
“This scarcity of wheat has led to public unrest in Pakistan. A stampede broke out as people scrambled to purchase subsidised flour, resulting in the death of a 40-year-old man.”
“Sri Lanka’s government cuts expenses as economy tanks…
“Unsustainable government debt, a severe balance of payments crisis and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a shortage of essentials such as fuel, medicine and food. Soaring prices have caused severe hardships for Sri Lankans…”
“Bangladesh opposition holds rally seeking PM Hasina’s resignation.
“Thousands of supporters of Bangladesh’s main opposition party have rallied across Bangladeshi cities to demand Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and the formation of a caretaker government to conduct general elections.”
“Coinbase cuts 20% of global workforce amid crypto collapse…
“The company has announced the third round of layoffs in a year as part of a restructuring plan. The move follows the sharp downfall in the value of cryptocurrency and has been blamed on that as well as the slowing global economy.”
https://news.sky.com/story/coinbase-cuts-20-of-global-workforce-amid-crypto-collapse-12783780
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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“Coinbase cuts 20% of global workforce amid crypto collapse…
“The company has announced the third round of layoffs in a year as part of a restructuring plan. The move follows the sharp downfall in the value of cryptocurrency and has been blamed on that as well as the slowing global economy.”
https://news.sky.com/story/coinbase-cuts-20-of-global-workforce-amid-crypto-collapse-12783780
That explains why the first time in 10+ years, Coinbase is flooding my SPAM!
A long, long time ago, (in a galaxy far, far away) I thought I would give this ‘new fad’ a try with a starting $50 investment, but could not get my head around any of it, eg the software apps were so complicated … I eventually found out, that at that particular time in its early days, that my local Aussie financial system were not touching it in any way, shape or form. So could only buy the imaginary currency, but not sell/exchange it for *real* money 🙂 I couldn’t *monetise* the assets, as they say.
I could only spend it on some non-Australian website purchases. Bought some nifty software for media piracy, with whatever 15-decimal point fraction I had in the wallet. So I shrugged it all off, thinking I had wasted a discretionary amount to disappear – through the new version of pokies, as we call slot machines. I thought I had unsubscribed, cancelled, and removed everything to do with it, many, many years ago, including ensuring anything was wiped in PC upgrades etc. But just recently it’s reappeared with a vengeance, flooding one of my oldest e-mail accounts, getting around spam filters etc. Threatening FOMO etc
Thank you, explains that sudden flooding 🙂
Sounds like they’re desperate for fresh suckers to prop up the Ponzi scheme. 🤣 …Although, to be fair to crypto, it is really the froth on the very top of the Ponzi scheme that is industrial civilisation.