In these economic threads, I generally post MSM articles to tell the story of how worsening energy and eco/resource-constraints are helping fuel dysfunction in the financial, economic, social and political domains – but it is perhaps helpful to occasionally look at how those constraints are themselves unfolding.
This is Gail Tverberg’s excellent latest analysis: “Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005…
“Now, the world is facing a very different problem. High energy prices are again feeding over to food prices and to inflation in general. But the underlying trend in energy consumption is very different.
“The growth rate in world energy consumption per capita was 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period, but energy consumption per capita for the period 2017 to 2021 seems to be slightly shrinking at minus 0.4% per year. The world seems to already be on the edge of recession.”
“Crude prices slump on global demand fears as central banks talk tough.
“Crude oil prices fell to their lowest since September on Friday, as tough talk from two of the world’s big central banks reinforced fears about the outlook for the global economy and consequently for oil demand… Such talk puts two of the world’s three biggest demand centers for oil on course for a deeper recession than priced in by markets.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-prices-slump-global-demand-101533650.html
“Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Exports By 430,000 Bpd As OPEC+ Cuts Output…
“Initial tracking and estimates suggest that so far in November, Saudi Arabia has reduced its crude oil exports by more than 400,000 bpd, while exports from OPEC could be on course to drop by 1 million bpd, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing oil flow tracking data.”
“Ocean carriers are said to be in “panic mode” as bookings from China to North Europe and the US west coast tank, causing FAK rates to plunge to new depths.
“Despite aggressive blanking that has reduced weekly capacity on the trade-lanes by more than a third, the lines have failed to slow the precipitous fall in short-term rates and, are arguably fuelling the fire by offering sub-economic spot rates via their digital platforms.”
https://theloadstar.com/carriers-in-panic-mode-as-recession-bites-offering-crazy-ocean-rates/
“Gobble, gobble, gulp! Food prices put the bite on U.S. Thanksgiving feast.
“Let the sticker shock begin: The upcoming U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, a time when families and friends typically celebrate with groaning sideboards, a stuffed turkey, and a more-is-better-than-less attitude, is going to cost roughly 20% more than last year, according to estimates compiled by the American Farm Bureau Federation in an annual survey of grocery prices.”
“The UK has fallen into a recession which will last more than a year and push half a million people out of work, while households face the biggest fall in living standards since records began…
“The drop in household spending power will be so acute it will wipe out the past eight years of growth, as wage rises fail to keep pace with inflation and interest rates rise. It will effectively turn the clock back to 2013, the OBR said.”
“In all the din surrounding Britain’s patched-up public finances, one upshot for the government’s budget watchdog is that the economy is heading for outright price deflation within three years.
“That’s quite a forecast, with UK inflation currently running at 41-year highs of more than 11%, and it likely reflects extreme base effects from flattening household energy prices or the mother of all recessions – or both.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/team-transitory-britain-headed-deflation-2022-11-18/
“Theft Is on the Rise in UK Stores as Cost-of-Living Crisis Grows…
“With more inflation set to come, theft may spread further, and retailers have become more vigilant over shoplifting or “shrink,” as the industry calls it. Stores that used to attach anti-theft devices to pricey items like alcohol have shifted to also protect unlikely products — butter, cheese, washing detergent and protein bars, some of them retailing at just £2 ($2.37).”
“Blow to Britain’s winter blackout plan as delayed repairs limit power imports from France… National Grid declined to comment on the reason for the delay…
“Plans to avert winter blackouts have been dealt a blow as repairs to a key power cable from France to Britain have been delayed until next year. National Grid’s Interconnexion France-Angleterre (IFA) cable under the Channel has been running at half capacity since a fire in September 2021 damaged its substation in Kent.”
“France Faces High Risk Of Power Grid Strain In January: Operator.
“The French electricity grid operator warned Friday of a “high risk” of network strain due to ongoing nuclear power plant outages, which could see businesses and households forced to curb usage to avoid outright power cuts… Much will depend on the weather and “a possible cold wave, even a moderate one,” RTE said.”
“Germany is trying to draw up agreements with major users of electricity to reduce consumption this winter in case gas is rationed for power generation.
“The two biggest grid operators in the south of Germany are approaching huge manufacturers like BASF SE to find out how much electricity demand they can cut if needed, perhaps for a few hours a day as winter approaches.”
“Germany warns of local oil shortages after EU ban on Russian imports.
“Germany has warned of local oil shortages when the EU-wide ban on Russian oil comes into force in January, in a further sign of the disruption Europe’s energy crisis is wreaking on the continent’s largest economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/16a518df-44f8-4cff-a723-67143594a8b7
“Hungarians widen protests over teachers’ pay as cost-of-living crisis deepens…
“Fuelled by the fallout from the war in neighbouring Ukraine and falls in the forint currency to record lows, Hungarian inflation is on track to scale a 26-year-high next year, while analysts polled by Reuters expect economic growth to stall.”
“Massive blackouts that temporarily hit more than a half-dozen cities across Moldova this week highlighted the impact Russia’s war in Ukraine is having on Europe’s poorest country…
“Moldova’s pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, said Moscow’s decision to cut her country’s gas supplies amounted to “political blackmail” and was an attempt to “cynically exploit people’s hardships” and to turn the country away from its path toward joining the EU.”
“A ‘barbed wire curtain’ rises in Europe amid war in Ukraine..
“In 2015 and 2016, Russia ushered thousands of asylum-seekers, mostly from the Middle East, to border checkpoints in northern Finland. Then in 2021 the EU accused Lukashenko of luring migrants to his country on false promises of passage into Europe, before pushing them to the Polish border and forcing them to make illegal crossings.”
“‘Brother, Help Me’: People Are Losing Limbs in Europe’s Forgotten Migrant Crisis.
“VICE World News spoke to the family of a Sri Lankan migrant who had his leg amputated and lost his five other toes to frostbite after being trapped in no-man’s land between Belarus and Lithuania.”
https://www.vice.com/en/article/7k8qqg/lithuania-belarus-migrant-crisis
“China debt: local government ‘land grabs’ raise concerns amid tumbling fiscal revenues.
“A liquidity crisis is brewing in some local governments in China due to falling revenues and aggressive land purchases, analysts said, as Beijing steps up its efforts to control mounting debt risks.”
“Chinese investors burnt by bond slump urged to have ‘serene heart’.
“Sharp declines in Chinese bond prices as the government takes steps to boost the economy have prompted an investor outcry and a rush of redemptions, putting pressure on asset managers to restore confidence in their fixed-income products. Asset managers are urging investors to hang on…”
“Peru’s food crisis grows amid soaring prices and poverty: FAO.
“Some 16.6 million people – more than half the population — now find themselves without regular access to enough safe and nutritious food. It’s a shocking reversal for Peru, an upper middle-income country according to the World Bank, that can grow all the food it needs.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130737
“Haitian migrants spend five days on uninhabited island after being abandoned by smugglers.
“Haitian migrants are rescued from an island after being stranded by smugglers. They were rescued after five days by the US Coast Guard when a campfire on the island caught their attention.”
“‘I windsurfed for 38 hours across the ocean’: Why Cubans are fleeing…
“…by May 2021, after more than a year of severe lockdown and the absence of tourism, life in Cuba was reaching breaking point. In spite of its obvious health advantages in fighting Covid, the economy – long characterised by malaise – was in a tailspin.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/cubas-great-post-covid-exodus/
“Eskom [the South African electricity public utility] says that changes in power cut stages are unpredictable, but stage four has been implemented indefinitely [this means no power 12x over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 12x over an eight-day period for four hours at a time].
“The utility announced on Friday morning that it would be ramping up power cuts to stage four, due to generation unit breakdowns and diesel shortages.”
“The Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) has warned that Nigeria may go bankrupt due to its piling debts…
“Nigeria’s debt as of June 30 was $103billion (N43trillion), according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). Domestic debt stood at $63.24billion, while external debt stock was about $40.06billion.”
https://dailypost.ng/2022/11/18/cislac-says-nigeria-may-go-bankrupt-as-debts-hit-103bn/
“Tunisia’s milk shortage leaves farmers poor and the public angry…
“Tunisia, eager to keep prices down for ordinary citizens but also bound by promises to reduce subsidies as it seeks a bailout from the IMF, has few options. Its inability to resolve the problem has left farmers poorer and consumers fuming, adding to a sense of economic breakdown and government mismanagement in a country where frustration over politics is already simmering.”
“Tunisian police disperse protesters with teargas near Francophonie summit venue -witnesses…
“Protests have roiled Zarzis, which is connected to Djerba by a long bridge, for weeks over the Tunisian state’s response to the death of local people in migrant shipwrecks.”
“Islamic State: Lebanon’s economic collapse drives recruitment…
“In Tripoli’s backstreets, hope is in short supply. So is electricity, water, fuel, medicines and jobs. In the last year, around a hundred young Lebanese men are said to have joined IS. It’s not only about signing up to the extreme ideology the group represents. They’re trying to escape the grinding poverty of a country in crisis.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-63386636
“A senior Iranian military official visiting Baghdad this week threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north… Such an offensive, if carried out, would be unprecedented in Iraq, and raise the specter of regional fallout from Iran’s domestic unrest…
“Iran alleges that Kurdish opposition groups long exiled in northern Iraq are inciting anti-government protests in Iran and smuggling weapons into the country.”
“Protesters in Iran have set on fire the ancestral home of the Islamic republic’s founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as two months of anti-regime demonstrations show no let up.
“The house in the city of Khomein in the western Markazi province was shown ablaze late on Thursday with crowds of jubilant protesters marching past…”
“Uzbekistan Halts Natural Gas Exports Amid Widespread Power Outages…
“Deputy Energy Minister Sherzod Khodjayev said on November 16 that daily exports of gas have decreased from 10 million cubic meters to 1 million cubic meters. Imports have increased by 20 percent, he said, without specifying where Uzbekistan is sourcing the gas.”
“Kashmir to observe 8-hour daily power cut this winter, locals angry…
“The UT administration has recently hiked the power tariff by 18% and issued the eight hours power cut for Kashmir valley which has created panic among the public. The people of Kashmir are facing hardship every day following the severe power crisis…”
“Why FTX’s collapse conjures nightmares from 2008′s global financial crisis – and fears of crypto pyramid schemes…
“Because FTX is such a central player in the crypto ecosystem, the fear is that containing the fallout will be impossible. Like a forest fire that has jumped a highway, FTX’s collapse has the potential to amplify contagion across the sector.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ftx-crypto-crash-financial-contagion-2008/
“World’s largest crypto fund swept into FTX storm.
“The share price of the $10.5bn Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which owns 3.5 per cent of the world’s bitcoin, has plummeted to a 39 per cent discount to the value of its underlying assets as investors have embarked on an increasingly desperate scramble to exit. The blowout means investors in the trust have suffered an 83 per cent loss since bitcoin peaked in November 2021…”
https://www.ft.com/content/29a2f96f-6d9b-4593-abdf-ffaadc502951
Well, perhaps we’ll get to see an entertaining Netflix dramatization of FTX’s fall from grace before civilisation implodes:
“Missing Employees, a Billion-Dollar Loan, and Emoji Payments: The 9 Most Batshit Revelations from FTX’s Bankruptcy Filing… When it comes to FTX, how bad can things get? Apparently, the answer to that question is: pretty friggin’ bad…
““Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” wrote the exchange’s new CEO, John Ray III in his filing. “This situation is unprecedented.”“
https://gizmodo.com/missing-money-crypto-houses-and-emoji-payments-heres-1849797923
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with a “Climate” thread.
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Thanks for posting the article by Gail Tverberg. On the one hand mainstream media has more credibility, but on the other hand those of us paying attention know that so much of it is partial or complete lies.
Like Cassandra, thank you so much for that Gail Tverberg article, which is great and also helps in sending arrows or link-throughs onto even more informative sites as well.
I love Gail’s style of writing, simple enough, without being ‘dumbed down’ on the subject of macroeconomics that I am admittedly very poorly educated in, but because I still enjoy learning & using my brain in my retirement I found it a great base, a web-version of ‘Macroeconomics 101 for Dummies’ so to speak.
BUT – I tend to cringe when he throws in anti-vaxx rhetoric.
After all, I am a biological/medical sciences major, not an economics one – and spent 25+ years of my working life in population health statistical analysis, epidemiology, related research reporting etc – an “actuary” of bio-systems I guess 🙂
Rain, you are welcome. I’ve long been a fan of Gail’s analyses, and they helped inspire me to follow the “limits to growth” story in real time.
Absolutely.