“Fossil fuel projects were stalled a year ago. Now they’re making a comeback…
“…the fossil fuel industry is experiencing a remarkable rebound, with sudden momentum behind more than 80 projects that range from coal-fired power plants to hulking gas export terminals, many of which could lock the world into decades of new greenhouse gas emissions.
“The backsliding is occurring as nations grope for alternatives to Russian natural gas, cut off by sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine. It will be a major point of tension at this year’s global climate summit, which begins in Egypt on Sunday. It throws into further jeopardy a global carbon budget crafted to avert climate chaos…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/03/fossil-fuel-cop27-russia/
“Coal Was Meant to Be History. Instead, Its Use Is Soaring.
“Even as the globe is increasingly battered by floods, droughts and storms caused by climate change, the fuel that contributes most to planet-warming emissions is undergoing a renaissance. Global coal power generation could set a record for a second-straight year and remains the world’s biggest source of electricity.”
“OPEC: Higher Oil Investments Are Needed to Avoid Rampant Volatility…
“The significant decline in investments in the oil industry, which began with the price crash of 2015 and then again in 2020 with the first COVID wave, is exacerbating volatility in the oil market, OPEC’s secretary general said. Spare capacity globally is currently very low and in the hands of two of the major OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).”
“Hedge-fund giant Elliott warns looming hyperinflation [their analysis is purely financial; not factoring in our eco/energy predicaments] could lead to ‘global societal collapse’…
“It added that the “extraordinary” period of cheap money is coming to an end and has “made possible a set of outcomes that would be at or beyond the boundaries of the entire post-WWII period.” The letter reportedly said the world is “on the path to hyperinflation,” which could lead to “global societal collapse and civil or international strife.””
“Fed Frets About Shadow Banks and Eyes Treasury Liquidity in New Report…
“Financial stability issues are in focus as central banks around the world raise interest rates in synchrony and other markets around the world — including the government bond market in Britain — offer early warning signs that cracks are beginning to emerge.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/business/economy/fed-shadow-banks.html
“Global manufacturing PMI slips further into contraction territory as new orders decline solidly.
“The global manufacturing PMI survey’s Output Index, which acts as a reliable advance indicator of actual worldwide output trends, signalled a third successive monthly drop in worldwide factory production in October… Of the 31 economies for which S&P Global PMI data are available for October, some 21 reported falling production, which was also the case in September.”
“Chip Makers Cut Costs as Demand Slump Supplants Pandemic’s Chip Shortage…
““What has happened is that the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, and we went from a period of supply shortages to demand declines,” Akash Palkhiwala, Qualcomm’s chief financial officer, said in a call with analysts. “It’s an unprecedented change over a short period of time.””
“Air cargo market continues to deflate under global economic pressures.
“The air cargo market continued to unwind 18 months of record gains in October as the global economy slows and consumers tighten their purse strings while spending more on services. The industry is well into the typical peak season with little sign of increased shipping activity. Demand and rates are falling at a time when both normally climb.”
“The Bank of England warned Thursday that the U.K. is facing its longest recession since records began, with the economic downturn expected to extend well into 2024.
“The central bank described the outlook for Britain’s economy as “very challenging,” noting that unemployment would likely double to 6.5% during the country’s two-year slump.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-longest-ever-recession.html
“Food shortages ‘significant risk’ if energy bailout not extended, ministers warned.
“Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been warned there is a “significant risk” of food shortages and further inflation if the government fails to extend its energy bailout beyond the winter. The Cold Chain Federation has written to the Chancellor, as well as new business secretary Grant Shapps…”
“Pandemic and energy crisis are reshaping funerals in the UK…
“Last year, almost a fifth of funerals were “direct cremations”, also known as unattended funerals. There is no hearse, procession or funeral service and they can cost less than £1,000, compared with £3,700 on average for a cremation.”
https://www.ft.com/content/57d25c27-4dbf-4e27-a458-fc978be84843
“European nations delay fossil fuel finance ban, blaming energy crisis…
“The statement “recognis[es] the ongoing development of national approaches” and leaves space for ministers “to decide on a potential policy alignment between countries”. It removed a section saying that any exceptions to the fossil fuel ban must be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5C.”
“Mon Dieu! France Is Heading Toward Winter Blackouts…
“France will only avoid some form of power outage if the winter is mild… Despite all the promises by French ministers that the country’s nuclear fleet would be up and running ahead of the cold weather, it’s now clear the reactors will only be able to deliver a fraction of what’s needed on those cold nights in December and January.”
“Germany’s Manufacturing Slump Deepens as Energy Costs Soar…
“The entire Eurozone manufacturing sector has tumbled into recession, with output falling at the steepest rate since the initial COVID wave as demand for goods plummets, the S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI survey also showed this week.”
“Uniper SE reported one of the biggest losses in German corporate history, with Russia’s stranglehold on gas supplies leaving the giant utility struggling to survive.
“Uniper reported a net loss of about €40 billion ($39.3 billion) in the first nine months of the year after being forced to buy gas at prices far beyond what it paid Russia under long-term contracts.”
“Ukraine war causes spike in Estonia’s oil shale needs…
“The difficult geopolitical situation caused by the war in Ukraine has hiked the price of oil shale energy for Estonia. The need for oil shale is so great that Eesti Energia cannot mine enough of it and is forced to buy more… Increased demand for oil shale follows Estonia’s decision to start offering customers fixed prices as the universal service…”
https://news.err.ee/1608778234/ukraine-war-causes-spike-in-estonia-s-oil-shale-needs
“Poles’ winter anxiety over lack of coal in coal dependent Poland.
“Millions of Poles are still reliant on coal for their energy and heating needs, but a steady decline in the country’s production, the embargo on Russian imports, and inflation have all played their part in a looming energy crisis this winter.”
https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/03/poles-winter-anxiety-over-lack-of-coal-in-coal-dependent-poland
“Slovakia: Firewood back as energy crisis bites…
“According to the Slovak Ministry of Agriculture, the demand for firewood almost doubled in September compared with last year. Slovakia is not alone in this respect. Recently, the website Politico warned that European forests were facing “a very dark winter,” with many NGOs and scientists worrying that high demand for firewood could increase illegal logging.”
https://www.dw.com/en/slovakia-firewood-back-as-energy-crisis-bites/a-63648738
“Austrian political crisis grows as drama unfolds at corruption hearing…
“With opposition politicians calling for a new election, public anger over corruption is denting support for Austria’s governing coalition and boosting the standing of the hard-right, populist Freedom party (FPÖ) in the wealthy EU member state.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2061b421-d0d5-4fe0-8a4d-0e67a7f9484b
“Italy PM Meloni hikes govt borrowing to tackle energy crisis…
“After winning a Sept. 25 election the hard-right leader quickly made clear that most of her coalition’s more ambitious election pledges such swingeing tax cuts and higher pensions would have to wait until better economic times.”
“Greece: Unions plan 24-hour nationwide strike and protests Nov. 9…
“Major trade unions in Greece plan to strike and protest in Greece Nov. 9 to denounce the Russian offensive against Ukraine and call for government intervention to mitigate related price increases. Members of various groups, including PAME, and the General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE), will observe a 24-hour nationwide strike.”
“New Zealand the ‘kiwi in the coalmine’ as house prices slump and repayments rise.
“Experts say New Zealand has become the “kiwi in the coalmine” for the world’s property markets, as rising interest rates and falling house prices put some borrowers at risk of negative equity, where they owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth.”
“Japan economy set to slow sharply as global inflation, recession risks hurt.
“Japan’s economy is expected to have slowed markedly in the third quarter as global recession risks hurt external demand while rising inflation and a weak yen’s impact on imported prices forced consumers to keep their wallets shut.”
“China, Japan and South Korea ramp up winter fuel stockpiles to cut costly LNG amid global energy crisis.
“Key Asian economies are stockpiling fuel, diversifying sources and conserving power to ensure adequate supplies for winter, as an unprecedented global energy crisis makes spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases costly.”
“Barclays cuts China GDP outlook after forecasting U.S., Europe recession…
““China’s share of global exports has been shrinking this year,” the analysts said. “Foreign companies are seen to have shifted their orders away from China to its Asian neighbors, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh and India, for the production of some key labor-intensive goods.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/barclays-cuts-china-gdp-after-forecasting-us-europe-recession.html
“Bolivian civic group threatens national strike as census protests escalate…
“In recent weeks, protesters have set up road blockades in the city of Santa Cruz, the country’s wealthiest, while another regional town this week saw clashes break out on the street, with fireworks thrown and police using tear gas.”
“Indigenous people in Peruvian Amazon detain tourists in oil spill protest.
““[We want] to call the government’s attention with this action. There are foreigners and Peruvians, there are about 70 people,” Watson Trujillo, the leader of the Cuninico community, told RPP radio. French, Spanish and Swiss citizens are also among the detained tourists…”
“The Metals for Your EV Are Stuck in a 30-Mile Traffic Jam.
“In order to get a truckload of copper out of Africa and into the hands of tech-hungry buyers, Chanda Kulungika must spend a week sitting in one of the world’s longest traffic jams… Africa’s metals are no good to anyone if they can’t get out. The 1,900-mile journey from mines in Congo and Zambia to the ports is so riddled with bottlenecks and jams that it can take more than a month.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-africa-copper-supply-chain-snarls
“Ghana’s Credit Rating May be Cut By Fitch If Debt Restructured in IMF Talks.
“Ghana’s sovereign credit rating may be downgraded closer to default by Fitch Ratings should talks with the International Monetary Fund on a record new $3 billion funding package lead to debt restructuring… Investors have been concerned about the financial health of Africa’s second-biggest gold producer…”
“Nigeria: Debt distress and fears of a recession…
“In a last-ditch attempt at reining in liquidity, the board of the central bank has decided to call over 2.7 trillion banknotes in circulation, within a 90-day period. However, it was excessive government spending to fund the deficit and pay for direct intervention programmes that led to the doubling of the cash in circulation in the first place…”
https://www.theafricareport.com/255667/nigeria-debt-distress-and-fears-of-a-recession/
“Cop27: Egyptian authorities arrest scores of people calling for cost of living protests…
“Egyptian authorities have tightened their grip over protesters in recent weeks as the country prepares to host the Cop27 summit in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh between 6 and 18 November… Egypt’s currency, the pound, has lost almost 25 percent against US dollar since January, while banks have struggled to salvage foreign currency to import essential goods such as tea.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/cop-egypt-authorities-arrest-people-cost-living-protests
“Cleric killed in restive Iranian city, protests rage on.
“A cleric at a Shi’ite Muslim mosque in the restive, mostly Sunni Muslim Iranian city of Zahedan has been shot dead, the official news agency IRNA said, threatening a spike in sectarian tensions complicating government efforts to contain widespread unrest.”
“Protests erupt across Pakistan after attack on Imran Khan.
“Protests erupted in multiple cities across the country after Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan and other PTI leaders were injured in a gun attack…”
https://www.siasat.com/protests-erupt-across-pakistan-after-attack-on-imran-khan-2448954/
“Pakistan’s economic condition worsens as default on borrowing spikes.
“Fast deteriorating CDS [credit default swap] is signalling the foreign investors that Islamabad is precariously near default. Rather than taking SOS measures for economic revival, Islamabad is still pinning its hope on assistance from Saudi Arabia and China which have dried up in the recent past.”
“Last handful of fish: Crisis pushes more Sri Lankans into poverty… “In her outstretched palms, 49-year-old Nilanthi Gunasekera holds her family’s last remaining handful of dried fish – a reminder of Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis in decades.
“She is just one of the millions of Sri Lankans battling a calamitous decline in living standards as they find themselves forced to skip meals, ration medicines and turn to firewood in place of cooking gas.
““Now fish is out of the reach of our family, and so is meat,” Gunasekera said, grasping the shards of fish. “For two weeks we couldn’t afford any meat or fish. This is our last protein.””
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-food-poverty-b2216780.html
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with a “Climate” thread.
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