“Fuel protests gripping more than 90 countries…
“By analysing data on demonstrations worldwide, collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, the BBC has established that between January and September this year people in more than 90 countries and territories took to the streets over the price or availability of fuel [and, of course, plenty protesting because they want it left in the ground; these are confused times].”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-63185186
“The global economy is sinking. No one’s sending lifeboats…
“While a “sense of dread” surrounded last week’s IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, our Kate Davidson and Victoria Guida report that the U.S. is struggling to mount a coordinated response. The problem is that the U.S., like other nations, is largely focused on trying to contain domestic crises.”
“Global economic warning lights are flashing red…
“Last week the International Monetary Fund underscored how multiple clouds — including the European energy crisis, rapid interest rate rises and China’s slowdown — have been gathering over the global economy. What has seemed like separate crises emerging from many different regions and markets are now coalescing: we may be facing a polycrisis on a global scale.”
https://www.ft.com/content/48d674a8-ae51-4f75-909c-0e5b6e38475c
“Are we heading for the next global financial crisis? All signs point that way. China real estate and global debt woes show problems that led to 2008 financial crisis remain [and, obviously, they are far worse now as we are more leveraged, and at the same time more energy and resource-constrained].
“History shows that easy money inflates asset values but everything eventually comes crashing down in a reversion to the mean.”
“Economic & financial risk insights: financial stability risks rising as liquidity tide goes out…
“Financial markets are under stress, triggered by a feedback loop of monetary tightening, inconsistent fiscal policies and the excessive debt legacy of past crises. Heightened volatility and uncertainty are pushing more economies into severe recessions.”
“Tug of War That Markets Fear Is Central Banks Versus Governments…
“When monetary authorities look at soaring prices, they see inflation that must be stamped out — by driving economies into recession if needs be. But politicians in charge of budgets see something different, because voters hit by a cost-of-living squeeze expect their governments to help out, which typically means spending more or taxing less.”
“The largest US banks reported relatively solid third-quarter earnings on Friday. But within those reports, investors found ominous clues about the future of the housing market, underscoring fears of an upcoming crisis.
“What’s happening: JPMorgan (JPM) reported that third-quarter home lending revenue plunged 34% from a year ago, and Wells Fargo logged a drop of 52% over the same period.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/17/investing/premarket-trading-stocks/index.html
“Hedge Fund Titan Warns UK Pension Crisis Is Just the Start…
““The UK LDI industry is the first casualty of the end of the ‘money for nothing’ era — the first dead fish to float to the surface as rising central bank interest rates act like dynamite fishing in global asset markets,” Paul Marshall said in a letter sent to clients this month.”
“Over 50,000 small businesses in London collapse as SME bloodbath rages…
“The figures illustrate how roaring inflation and higher costs are forcing small firms to the wall… Turmoil on UK financial markets sparked by prime minister’s Liz Truss’s botched mini budget in which she and her former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng launched £45bn of unfunded tax cuts will heap even more pressure on businesses.”
https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-over-50000-small-businesses-in-london-collapse/
“[UK] Trade unions threaten winter of mass strikes in most militant showdown since 1970s…
“Opening the delayed TUC conference in Brighton, outgoing general secretary Frances O’Grady… [claimed] Liz Truss’s proposals for new anti-strike laws – to combat disruption of vital services like trains, schools, post and the NHS – would break international law and trade deals, she says defiantly: “See you in court.””
“Blackouts may be imposed on cold weekday evenings, [UK] National Grid chief warns.
“The head of Britain’s electricity and gas systems’ operator has told households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on weekdays during “really, really cold” days in January and February if gas imports are reduced.”
“Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe’s coasts unable to unload… If the backlog is not cleared soon those ships may start looking for alternative ports outside Europe to offload their cargo.
“There are more than 35 LNG-laden vessels drifting off Spain and around the Mediterranean, with at least eight vessels anchored off the Bay of Cadiz alone…”
“Gazprom chief threatens total halt in EU gas supply if price cap is imposed.
“Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, speaking on state television and cited by news agency Tass, said Gazprom was guided by contractual terms in its supply arrangements with EU buyers and that a price cap would be a breach of contract.”
“Truckers grow anxious as AdBlue shortage applies brake to German industry…
“AdBlue, a mixture of urea and deionised water, is the lifeblood of logistics. But stocks are drying up after SKW Piesteritz, a company in the east German town of Wittenberg, which is one of Germany’s biggest sources of the solution, halted production to cope with the soaring price of gas.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c2dd5b8a-2e65-40bd-a09f-218037cff528
“Tens of thousands of passengers affected by first day of Eurowings strike.
“Pilots at Lufthansa’s Eurowings began a three-day strike over working hours, their union said, affecting tens of thousands of the budget airline’s passengers on Monday. “It’s begun. And so far there is no new offer,” said a spokesperson for the Vereinigung Cockpit (VC) pilots’ union.”
“Hundreds of people affected by Germany’s cost-of-living crisis gathered outside the Federal Chancellery in Berlin over the weekend to protest what they say is the increasingly worsening situation in people’s lives.
“Some demonstrators held signs calling for “immediate help for the poor” while other placards read, “We need healthy food. Abolish poverty!”
“French government in crisis talks as fuel shortages worsen.
“…commuters could be facing days of travel chaos if planned strikes in the Paris public transport network and parts of the national rail network go ahead. Beaune said that in the worst affected regions, only one in two trains will be running on Tuesday. The industrial action takes place against a backdrop of rising living costs in France…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/17/business/france-crisis-fuel-shortages/index.html
“Massive protest in Paris against inflation and climate crisis…
“Organisers say 140,000 people attended the march against the rising cost of living and alleged government inaction against climate change… It was a show of anger against the bite of rising prices and to crank up the pressure on the government of President Emmanuel Macron.”
“Italians take to streets for anti-government protests.
“As the energy crisis continues to bite in Italy, people from all walks of life have been staging protests across the country… Italy is in the process of installing a new government as the Mario Draghi government collapsed in July leading to snap elections.”
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/10/16/691025/Italy-anti-government-protest-energy-crisis-Rome-EU
“Australia’s economic outlook to be downgraded in budget amid global ‘deterioration’.
“Increasingly dire forecasts for the global economy will see last-minute downgrades to Australia’s economic figures in next week’s federal budget, with the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, warning of “an increasingly perilous path” for world markets and key trading partners.”
“Japan repeats warnings on yen as market watches for intervention.
“Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Tuesday that Japan would take appropriate and decisive action against excessive, speculator-driven currency moves, keeping alive the possibility of more market intervention after the yen hit a new 32-year low.”
“China has unexpectedly delayed key economic data scheduled to be published just as President Xi Jinping bids for another five years in power.
“Third quarter economic data, including GDP figures, were due to be published on Tuesday but have been delayed without explanation. It comes as the country’s leadership gathers in Beijing for the Communist Party’s twentieth congress this week.”
“China Halts LNG Sales to Foreign Buyers to Ensure Own Supply.
“…a move by China to secure its own supply could drain shipments to Europe and exacerbate the region’s energy crunch in the case of a cold winter. China holds large contracts to purchase LNG from exporters like the US, with the Asian nation’s traders diverting some of that supply to Europe this year amid lackluster demand at home.”
“Sri Lanka struggles to recover economically… further economic hardship could send protesters back to the streets [picture is of QR code for rationed fuel].
“The nation appears to have settled into an uncomfortable status quo. The IMF’s recent bailout package of $2.9 billion, along with $4 billion that India has already provided, will temporarily sustain the Wickremesinghe government. However, the IMF loan is contingent on the government enacting strict economic measures that will be challenging.”
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/sri-lanka-struggles-economically/
“Lebanese Pound Hits New Record Low…
“The pound’s market value fell to over 40,000 to the greenback, according to money exchangers who spoke to AFP, after it had stabilised at around 38,000 for weeks… The crisis has pushed most Lebanese into poverty, while talks with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in loans have stalled…”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/lebanese-pound-hits-new-record-low-01666002307
“More and more Egyptians online are calling for anti-government protests on 11 November to coincide with COP27 as human rights abuses in the country continue…
“In September 2020, dozens of anti-government protesters took to the streets holding banners calling on Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi to stand down. One year earlier Egyptians took to the streets as discontent over human rights abuses and strict austerity measures plunged hundreds of people into poverty.”
“Tunisia: Thousands Protest Demand President Kais Saied’s Resignation.
“Tunisia’s commemoration of the 59th anniversary of the Evacuation Day was marked by a massive protest against President Kais Saied, calling for him to take responsibility for the country’s deteriorating economy which has resulted in fuel and food shortages.”
“Zimbabwe, Rwanda and Ghana are the three African countries among 10 nations with the highest food price inflation in the latest World Bank assessment.
“Zimbabwe, Lebanon, Venezuela and Turkey ranked first four countries in the assessment while Iran, Sri Lanka, Argentina, Moldova, Rwanda and Ghana were the remaining countries in the list published by the World Bank on Sunday.”
“Kenya may need pre-emptive debt restructuring to avoid default, economists say…
“The country’s “constrained access” to capital markets, and inability to diversify to alternative financing sources, may challenge successful eurobond rollover, with a visible trade deficit forecast at 11% of GDP from 2022 to 2024 further clouding the outlook, Erasmus writes.”
“Ghana’s Cedi Slumps to World’s Worst Performer Amid IMF Talks…
“The currency of the world’s second-biggest cocoa producer depreciated as much as 3.3% Monday, before paring the loss to 11.2750 per dollar at 3:30 p.m. in the capital Accra. That took its losses this year to more than 45%, the most among 148 currencies tracked by Bloomberg.”
“Nigeria LNG declares force majeure as flooding disrupts gas supply.
“The declaration could worsen Nigeria’s cash crunch and will curtail global gas supply as Europe and others struggle to replace Russian exports due to the invasion of Ukraine in February. NLNG said all of its upstream gas suppliers had declared force majeure, forcing it to make the declaration as well.”
“Miners’ Losses Mount as Ports Strike Drags on for Twelfth Day in South Africa.
“Negotiations to reach a pay deal have been unsuccessful, even after the government and an arbitration body joined the discussions between Transnet and its biggest labor unions. The virtual shutdown of South Africa’s monopolistic logistics company has taken a broad toll on not only mining and agricultural exports, but service businesses and others involved in supply chains.”
“Cuba replaces energy minister as hours-long blackouts stir unrest.
“Cuba´s communist-run government replaced its energy and mines minister with Vicente de la O Levy, head of the state-run electronics company, official media reported on Monday, as the country struggles to contain hours-long blackouts that have stirred rare protests across the island.”
“Venezuela crisis: 7.1m leave country since 2015.
“More than half of them face challenges accessing food, housing, and stable employment, the UN says. But despite the difficulties facing them abroad, the flow of Venezuelans escaping turmoil in their homeland has not let up. Aid agencies warn that these migrants risk being forgotten amid other crises.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-63279800
You can read the previous “Economic” thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread.
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