“Global economy slides into contraction, price pressures ease to 1½ year low.
“Global economic output contracted in August for the first time since June 2020, according to the latest PMI survey data. Although only modest, the downturn reflects an increasingly broad-based deterioration of output and demand conditions both by sector and region…
“…central banks are hiking interest rates into an economic downturn which, while bearing fruit in terms of helping lower inflation, is adding to the risk of a deepening global contraction and possible recession.”
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/global-economy-slides-into-contraction-price-pressures-ease-to-1-year-low-August22.html
“Shipping rates are still falling, in another sign that a global recession may be coming…
“Freight rates have continued to fall as global trade volumes slow as a result of shrinking demand for goods, the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed.”
“Alarm Bell Sounds on Treasury Market Trading Conditions.
“Analysts at Bank of America are worried about the state of the U.S. Treasury market. “In our view, declining liquidity and resiliency of the Treasury market arguably poses one of the greatest threats to global financial stability today, potentially worse than the housing bubble of 2004-2007,” they wrote in a report Wednesday.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/alarm-bell-sounds-on-treasury-market-trading-conditions-11662578202
“More Americans tapping buy now, pay later services for groceries ‘shows the height of personal desperation,’ Harvard researcher says…
““The fact that there’s a large number of Americans that simply can’t afford to buy food highlights the desperation that this economic climate creates,” said Marshall Lux, a fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/07/harvard-fellow-using-bnpl-for-food-shows-personal-desperation.html
“Canadians are turning to credit cards for financial stress relief — and debt is on the rise.
“As high inflation rates drive up the cost of essentials, consumers are putting purchases small and large on their credit cards to alleviate some immediate financial pressure. A Tuesday report by credit bureau Equifax Canada shows the practice is driving Canadians into debt as balances begin to outpace the ability to pay credit off.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rising-credit-card-debt-in-canada-1.6571516
“The UK is preparing a huge energy bailout that could cost $172 billion.
“The United Kingdom’s new prime minister is reportedly preparing to commit as much as £150 billion ($172 billion) to shield households and businesses from soaring energy bills, increasing government borrowing at a time when investors are already on edge about the country’s finances.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/07/energy/uk-energy-crisis-liz-truss/index.html
“Major warning on [UK] economy as gilt yield curve turns upside down.
“A key warning sign of looming financial disaster was flashing red today as nervy investors bought heavily into long-term dated government debt. Yields on UK gilts have been moving higher for weeks, a sign that investors expect a higher rate of return for lending to the government.”
“Welcome to Liz Truss’ Britain. Everyone’s going on strike…
“Across the country, rail workers, barristers, dockhands, bus drivers, garbage collectors, Amazon employees, and even journalists at the infamously anti-union Daily Express newspaper are walking out over stagnant wages in the face of soaring inflation…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-strike-liz-truss-prime-minister/
“Brits must NEVER face rocketing energy bills again, Liz Truss to pledge as she unveils energy revolution that will freeze bills at £2,500, launch a new dash for North Sea gas, and restart fracking…
“‘Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and weaponisation of the gas supply in Europe is causing global prices to rise – and this has only made clearer that we must boost our long-term energy security and supply.””
“You’ll ‘freeze,’ Putin warns West over energy sanctions.
“The European Union’s effort to slap a limit on the price of Russian pipeline gas drew a furious response from the Kremlin on Wednesday. “We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing.””
“Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential…
“Inventories are likely to end the refill season at their third-highest level since 2011, enabling the region to cope with even a colder than normal winter. But the volume of stored gas will not be enough to ensure supply in the event pipeline deliveries from Russia are ended completely.”
“Europe’s banks dim lights as they brace for winter blackout.
“Some of Europe’s biggest banks are preparing back-up generators and to dim the lights as they brace for potential power cuts and energy rationing that threaten the money system underpinning the region’s economy.”
“Europe’s Reaction to the Energy Crisis Is Turning into A ‘Ponzi Scheme’.
“The European Union is struggling to find effective ways to alleviate its ongoing energy crisis. Countries have already passed windfall taxes and energy subsidies to little avail. Some are warning that the bloc’s proposed solutions are comparable to a Ponzi Scheme.”
“Energy Trading Stressed by Margin Calls of $1.5 Trillion.
“Aside from fanning inflation, the biggest energy crisis in decades is sucking up capital to guarantee trades amid wild price swings. That’s pushing European Union officials to intervene to prevent energy markets from stalling, while governments across the region are stepping in to backstop struggling utilities. Finland has warned of a “Lehman Brothers” moment, with power companies facing sudden cash shortages.”
“Germany’s Energy Crisis Deepens as Local Utilities Cry for Help.
“Germany’s fears that soaring power and gas prices could trigger a deeper crisis is starting to get real. Several hundred local utilities are coming under strain and need support, according to the head of Germany’s largest energy lobby group.”
“No tulips from Amsterdam? Gas crisis hits Dutch greenhouses.
“Greenhouse owner Pieter Wijnen would like to focus on growing vegetables, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, his life has revolved around gas and electricity prices rather than his red and yellow bell peppers or mini cucumbers.”
“Some farmers in Europe are shutting operations and reducing production because of the energy crunch, adding to the global food crisis.
“Nordic Greens Trelleborg, a top Swedish tomato producer, said it will not be planting a winter crop this year because it would be running at a loss given current electricity prices, Swedish newspaper Afton Bladet reported on Sunday.”
“Polish Households Face Energy Poverty as Gas Prices and Inflation Bite…
“According to analysts, skyrocketing energy bills, which could leave many more struggling to heat their homes this winter, are still an “optimistic scenario” as the country might soon face fuel shortages and blackouts.”
“Firewood prices, shortages spell cold winter for Europe’s poorest.
“High prices are seen across Europe but could hit central and eastern European harder, as many households in these countries, particularly in the lowest income brackets, rely on biomass for heating. ““Energy poverty is a major danger this year, and people are going to die.””
“Japanese Yen Plunge Worsens Despite Strongest Government Warnings Yet.
“The yen has slumped to a level that leaves it on track for its worst year on record, prompting the strongest warnings to date from senior Japanese government officials aimed at stemming the slide… Japan’s currency has slumped 20% this year, and fell past its previous worst annual drawdown in 1979.”
“China’s Big Four banks feel property pinch from failing loans.
“China’s biggest four banks have been hit by a more than 50 per cent increase in overdue loans from the property sector over the past year, as the real estate market’s liquidity crunch spills into the financial sector.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2f0eb985-ac20-4b09-8955-3be8925f1a12
“China export growth slows sharply in August, as global demand weakens…
“The weakness in trade comes as global demand for Chinese products weakens with energy prices soaring and the United States facing the threat of recession. At the same time the domestic property sector — which accounts for about a quarter of the world’s number-two economy — continues to struggle with firms staggering under vast amounts of debt.”
“Emerging Markets debt crisis around the corner…
“The dollar’s rise has been turning the screws intolerable tight this year, up some 20% since the start of this year. And much of this debt is owed to International Financial Institutions (IFIs) that usually don’t accept haircuts when doing debt restructuring deals. Of distressed sovereigns, multilaterals hold more than 25% of the debt of Mozambique, Tunisia, Ecuador, Ukraine and Tajikistan, reports Oxford Economics.”
https://www.bne.eu/em-debt-crisis-around-the-corner-255795/?source=russia
“Chile students disrupt metro with protests in wake of constitution defeat
“Chilean students protested in several subway stations in the capital on Wednesday, demanding reforms to the education system days after voters rejected a proposed constitution that had roots in student demonstrations three years ago.”
“Thousands of people in Haiti’s capital and other major cities organized new protests on Wednesday to demand safer streets, more affordable goods and the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry.
“The occasional crack of gunfire mixed with the shouting and clapping of protesters as they marched through streets blocked by rocks, trucks and burning tires.”
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/thousands-haiti-demand-ouster-pm-protest-89473620
“Tunisian shops and supermarkets are struggling with massive shortages of basic food supplies such as cooking oil, sugar, coffee and bottled water.
“Most of the goods running short are state-subsidised, which analysts say highlights the growing dysfunction in the state-administered purchasing and distribution of food. They also say there is a growing black market in subsidised goods.”
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/09/06/tunisia-hit-by-subsidised-food-shortages/
“Power Cuts Resume in South Africa After Three-Week Respite.
“South Africa announced its first rolling blackouts in almost three weeks on Tuesday, hours after the nation’s statistics office published data that showed the economy contracted in the second quarter when was hit by record power outages.”
“Malawi Seeks to Raise $50 Million as Fuel Crisis Deepens.
“Fuel shortages, which have plagued the southern African nation since April and dragged on the economy, have worsened in recent days, with motorists across the country sleeping at pump stations and forming long queues to refill.”
“No kerosene, no food, say Sri Lanka’s fishermen.
“Fuel shortages and runaway inflation mean they are struggling to procure kerosene oil, needed to power the boats that provide their livelihood. “Everything’s difficult at the moment – there’s no kerosene, there’s no food at home,” said 73-year-old Soosaipillai Nicholas, nicknamed Sornam.”
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/sri-lanka-fishermen-kerosene-inflation-fuel-shortages-2924406
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My reading this morning brought me to your stuff after I read the Global Times, RT and some others that are typically considered eastern propaganda. Unfortunately, since you (i think) do not visit those sites to get your summary, you might miss some very important trends. (I know, this comment will sound like I am telling you how to run your business, and since I dont know any details, my input probably sounds a little silly. Forgive me, please.)
For example, we get these two headlines from the western media:
“Shipping rates are still falling, in another sign that a global recession may be coming …”
“Global economy slides into contraction, price pressures ease to 1½ year low“
While in the Global Times, the lead story is:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274853.shtml (Which in my opinion is not propaganda, but a factual report of policy in China and Russia.)
The stories from western sources that indicate an economic slump in China is worse than it really is, and ignores the progress Russia, China and the global south in general is making in their efforts to move away from the dollar as the reserve currency. In other words, the western media headlines that we read here are indicating a problem for the west that (while really scary) is actually much worse given that US/NATO policy is pushing Russia and China toward a formal alliance both militarily, and economically.
In other words, Lou says, “Ha ha, you missed one??”
Hi Lou. Thank you for your thoughts.
The splintering and fracturing we are seeing of the global economy and the multi-polar world that is emerging from that is certainly an important story – I’ve posted quite a few articles on it over the months. Likewise the move away from the dollar, the strength of which is causing huge discomfort in the emerging markets and even now in the rest of the developed world. Something is going to have to give there.
China and Russia are certainly being pushed closer together out of necessity and that does indeed bode ill for the West. It doesn’t really bode well for China and Russia either but perhaps it bodes temporarily less ill. You can at least make a case that those nations are being managed with more strategic competence.
As to how bad China’s slump is, we cannot know for sure – not least because China is itself often opaque with its data. I thought it was interesting though that Carbon Brief observed an 8% drop in China’s CO2 emissions for Q2 versus last year. That suggests a serious reduction of economic activity. Likewise, the satellite data tracking truck movements at distribution centres used by Chinese e-commerce companies, which saw even less activity than in 2020. Tim Morgan, who crunches numbers far better than I can, sees China as a major locus of risk now.
Seems like we are in the midst of trade barriers similar that caused the great Depression and FX dislocations that resulted in a world war conflict, which the planet can I’ll afford.
Never mind the man made environmental crisis that is well addressed here and other sources…
Indeed, we are sitting on a razors edge