“Why This Global Economic Crisis Is Different… This is the first time since World War II that there may be no cooperative way out…
“One of the remarkable things about the global economic order since World War II has been the flexibility of governments in responding to serious crises… This time around, that lucky streak may finally break.
“The current concatenation of problems—the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, global food and energy shortages, unwinding asset bubbles in the United States, debt crises in developing countries, and the lingering impacts of COVID-19-related shutdowns and supply chain bottlenecks—may be the most serious crisis of them all, not least because central banks can’t print wheat and gasoline.
“Yet there are few signs of the collective responses that will be needed to meet these challenges. Global cooperation has never been more urgent—and seemed less likely.”
“Oil Prices Spike As OPEC Reveals Production Loss For May.
“Not only did OPEC not lift its production as agreed for the month of May, its production actually decreased, according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Tuesday… OPEC produced a total of 28.508 million bpd in May—down 176,000 bpd from April 2022.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Spike-As-OPEC-Reveals-Production-Loss-For-May.html
“Diesel Crisis Likely to Stay Unfixed by Oil Refining Revival.
“A wave of new oil refining capacity that’s coming on stream won’t be enough to solve a global shortage of diesel, jet fuel and similar petroleum products. That’s the takeway from the Paris-based International Energy Agency’s monthly report on Wednesday.”
“Biden calls on oil refiners to produce more, cut profit margins.
“Biden made the appeal in a letter delivered on Wednesday to major refining companies, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, and British Petroleum. While he said the Russian invasion of Ukraine is “principally responsible” for the financial burden US residents are facing, “historically high refinery profit margins are worsening that pain”.”
“U.S. to sell up to 45 million bbls oil from reserve as part of historic release.
“The U.S. Department of Energy on Tuesday said it was selling up to 45 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the Biden administration’s previously announced,largest-ever release from the stockpile.”
“[US] Consumers pull back spending due to high gas and food prices.
“The high cost of gas and food is causing US consumers to pull back spending on other items, suggesting a slowdown in the economy’s main driving force… More concerning is the details about where consumers are — and are not — spending money.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/15/economy/retail-sales/index.html
“Fed hikes its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point, the biggest increase since 1994…
“FOMC members indicated a much stronger path of rate increases ahead to arrest inflation moving at its fastest pace going back to December 1981, according to one commonly cited measure.”
“Fed begins quantitative tightening on unprecedented scale…
“While the Fed has flagged its plans for so-called quantitative tightening well in advance, investors are not clear what the impact will be of a process that has never been attempted at such scale before.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2496105a-d211-4abe-ab5d-46a91876428f
“UK food price rises could hit 15% over summer, report says.
“Meat, cereals, dairy, fruit and vegetables are likely to be the worst affected [Jeez, what else is there?! Pulses?] as the war in Ukraine combines with production lockdowns in China and export bans on key food stuffs such as palm oil from Indonesia and wheat from India, the grocery trade body IGD warns.”
“Summer of Strikes Don’t Auger Well for Europe.
“Are we on the eve of new industrial unrest? With a summer of industrial discontent looming in the UK and unrest across several sectors in various EU member states, it is a moot point… it is again the public sector which is the most militant in terms of strike action and, despite declining membership, trade unions have attempted to regain some of their former influence.”
https://intpolicydigest.org/summer-of-strikes-don-t-auger-well-for-europe/
“Eurozone emergency as another debt crisis looms… Christine Lagarde’s ECB accused of doing ‘bare minimum’ to prevent turmoil…
“… the outcome of Wednesday’s meeting largely failed to alleviate concerns. The ECB pledged to accelerate work on a new bond-buying plan to tackle surging borrowing costs in weaker eurozone economies.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/15/eurozone-emergency-another-debt-crisis-looms/
“Gazprom to further cut gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream…
“Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister and vice-chancellor, said the move was intended to drive up prices. “It is obviously a strategy to unsettle and drive up prices,” he said on Wednesday, adding, “We can currently buy the necessary quantities from the market, albeit at higher prices.””
https://www.dw.com/en/gazprom-to-further-cut-gas-supplies-to-germany-via-nord-stream/a-62143155
“Poland to subsidise coal for households as shortages hit…
“Under measures approved by the government on Tuesday, consumers will be able to buy up to three tonnes of coal per household at a maximum price of 996.60 zlotys ($223.84) per tonne, climate minister Anna Moskwa said.”
“Romanian drivers protest high fuel prices by blocking gas stations.
“Gas stations in several Romanian cities were blocked at the beginning of this week by drivers protesting high fuel prices.
“The price of diesel fuel in Romania has increased by about 80% in the last 12 months, reaching over RON 9.2 (EUR 1.85) per liter.”
https://www.romania-insider.com/romanian-drivers-protest-fuel-prices-june-2022
“Energy Crisis Hits European Factories Where It Hurts…
“Europe’s industrial energy costs have skyrocketed in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, severely denting manufacturers’ ability to compete in the global marketplace, with natural gas three times more expensive in Europe than in the U.S.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Energy-Crisis-Hits-European-Factories-Where-It-Hurts.html
“Australia power market halted in dramatic move to avert blackouts.
“Australia’s energy market operator took the unprecedented step on Wednesday of suspending the electricity spot market across eastern Australia to ensure it can keep the lights on, amid a string of outages at coal-fired plants.”
“China City Accused of Using Covid Health Codes to Stop [Bank] Protests.
“A manufacturing hub in central China is allegedly abusing its Covid control measures to prevent investors who say they have been swindled out of billions of dollars in a suspected financial scam from returning to the city to protest.”
“Asia’s Energy Crunch Turns From Bad to Worse on US Export Fire…
“A new timeline presented on Tuesday to restart a key US liquefied natural gas export plant was much longer than traders had anticipated, while lower deliveries from Indonesia to Russia tightened global supply… Global gas supplies were already slated to be tight this winter…”
“Laos hit by fuel shortages and growing default risk…
“Laos was already having trouble paying its bills before the recent surge in global food and energy prices precipitated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and western countries imposing sanctions on Moscow in response.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1f53abbd-2e49-4fe2-809c-f6dde97632fe
“Fertilizer shortage puts Nepal on the verge of food crisis.
“Nepal is beginning to experience a food crisis triggered by a dramatic rise in prices of fertilizers and a global shortage – with Russia and Ukraine being major exporters…
“…which could result in massive losses to the farmers of the Himalayan country.”
https://www.laprensalatina.com/fertilizer-shortage-puts-nepal-on-the-verge-of-food-crisis/
“Sri Lanka government workers get Fridays off to grow food ahead of shortages…
““It seems appropriate to grant government officials leave for one working day of the week and provide them with the necessary facilities to engage in agricultural activities in their backyards,” said a cabinet statement.”
“Gujarat [India]: Fuel shortage prevails on fourth straight day…
“For the fourth consecutive day, on Wednesday, the shortage of petrol and diesel across fuel outlets prevailed in Ahmedabad as well as other parts of Gujarat with many outlets running out of either petrol or diesel or both… The supply of fuel to retailers from oil companies, both private and public, has reduced over the past fortnight.”
“Pakistanis told to drink less tea as nation grapples with economic crisis…
“The country’s Federal Minister for Planning and Development, Ahsan Iqbal, on Tuesday told reporters that Pakistanis could reduce their tea consumption by “one or two cups” per day as imports are putting additional financial strain on the government.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/15/asia/pakistan-tea-economy-intl-hnk/index.html
““Turkey on the verge of total bankruptcy”, warns ex-Economy Minister Babacan…
““Bankruptcy means widespread and long-lasting power cuts throughout the country. Imagine that electricity is out for six hours, 10 hours per day. That’s the danger. They don’t know. Bankruptcy means total economic and financial collapse. Bankruptcy means chaos,” he warned.”
https://ahvalnews.com/ali-babacan/turkey-verge-total-bankruptcy-warns-ex-economy-minister-babacan
“Increasing food prices: Nigerians groan under burden of inflation…
“Mrs. Michael, a trader in paint buckets told Nigerian Tribune that “There is nothing we can do about the increase in food prices. We are all trying to survive. What I do is that I buy my foodstuff in bulk.””
“Millions face starvation in South Sudan as aid funds dry up.
“Approximately 1.7 million people face starvation in South Sudan after the United Nations World Food Programme has been forced to suspend part of its food assistance programme. It comes amid critical funding shortages…”
“Cryptocurrency ‘bloodbath’ threatens multibillion-dollar hedge fund.
“The “bloodbath” in the cryptocurrency sector may claim another victim, with the co-founder of multibillion dollar hedge fund Three Arrows Capital using Twitter in an attempt to battle rumours that the company is insolvent following the market collapse.”
“Bitcoin miners stung as fallout from price collapse widens…
“Bitcoin miners are scaling down production as sinking cryptocurrency prices and rising energy costs squeeze profits and slam their shares… The crypto market has come under strain following months of declines in its biggest coins, shrinking the value of the market from a high of $3.2tn in November to just under $1tn.”
https://www.ft.com/content/60a8a0ad-3946-4aeb-a0f5-f32a1b3d2637
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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TPTB keep hammering the inflation meme and always tie it to classic inflation which is too much money in the economy bidding up the price of things. They do this knowing full well that the prices are going up because of shortages and systemic supply chain issues.
We started a trade war with China in 2018 which started it all. Then C-19 GLobal lockdowns slammed the global economy halting production, manufacturing, shipping, jobs. Then add on the self inflicted pain of sanctioning Russia.
Before all this the average American was losing wealth, stagnant wages and salaries, and 64% of the population was living paycheck to paycheck. Then nearly 2 years of forced economic lockdown/slowdown. Sure the Gov sent out a couple thousand dollars to folks but who can go a year without income and live on a few thousand?
No there is not too much money flowing around driving up prices but who is in charge of handling inflation? The Fed. What is their one and only response to inflation??? Pull money out of the economy, drive down wages, make poor people poorer and they will not buy anything and the price of things will go down. Oh and the wealthy won’t feel a thing.
First by inflation (faked) then by deflation (all too real) the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.
Hi Jef. Thank you for commenting. I know you from Gail Tverberg’s blog. I agree that a deflationary crash is where we are headed but God knows how that plays out. My primary concern is that the entire financial system could seize up under the stress of cascading defaults.