“Global growth optimism at all-time low, fund manager survey finds.
“Optimism among fund managers over global economic growth has hit an all-time low while concerns of possible stagflation have risen to the highest since August 2008, a monthly survey by investment bank BoFA Securities showed on Tuesday.”
“Risk of Global Recession by End of Year Rises on High Inflation.
“The global economy is set for a step back by the end of the year, and recession risks are elevated against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid-19 shutdowns in China, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.”
“Dangerous Global Debt Burden Requires Decisive Cooperation…
“…the war in Ukraine is adding risks to unprecedented levels of public borrowing while the pandemic is still straining many government budgets. The situation highlights the urgent need for authorities to undertake reforms…”
https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/11/dangerous-global-debt-burden-requires-decisive-cooperation/
“Cardboard crisis looms as Putin’s war threatens packaging shortages…
Soaring wheat prices mean manufacturers may not be able to obtain the starch they need… governments are likely to have to prioritise food over paper if the situation persists.”
“US inflation climbed to 8.5% in March, highest rate since 1981.
“Driven up by continuing supply chain problems, soaring demand and rising energy prices, inflation is now at levels unseen in the US since Ronald Reagan took the White House from Jimmy Carter. The price increases are broad…”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/12/us-inflation-rate-march-2022
“UK inflation hits 7% as fuel prices surge.
“Inflation in March was more than three times the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, and higher than the rate of “around 6 per cent” that it forecast at its last meeting. The BoE said it expected inflation to climb to 8 per cent in April…”
https://www.ft.com/content/1e659559-c9b8-48fe-9f8f-590ae1cfed3b
“Food bank providers ‘deeply concerned’ about suffering across UK amid ‘ relentless’ demand.
“More than 550 independent food banks have called on Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak to act urgently to combat “rapidly rising levels of poverty, destitution and hunger”. Many are reaching breaking point as families struggle through the cost-of-living crisis…”
“A Russia-Germany ‘trade rupture’ could trigger a financial shock, says S&P chief economist…
“A trade rupture between Germany and Russia could put a dent in German manufacturing – one of three global manufacturing centers besides the U.S. and China, Gruenwald said.”
“Russian Railways becomes first company to officially default in the country…
“A global financial committee has ruled Russian Railways has tumbled into default after the company failed to make interest payments on $268 million of bonds, due to Western sanctions that have stymied Russia’s access to the global financial system.”
“China’s Credit Market Reaches Inflection Point as Stress Builds… Losses are among the worst ever. Borrowing costs are at a record high and big investors are cutting positions… China’s property industry has been rocked by at least 17 offshore defaults…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/china-credit-2022-04/
“Chinese Developer Sunac Misses First Bond Payment Deadline…
“China’s fourth-largest developer by sales in the first quarter of this year faces $1.6 billion of other offshore and local bond payments due through June, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. That includes three more interest payments due this month on dollar notes.”
“As Shanghai lockdown drags on, fears grow for global trade…
“Ominous signs are already emerging. An April 7 report by Hong Kong-based experts of Spanish financial services firm BBVA shows that vehicle freight traffic at Shanghai port has plunged during the lockdown, while the congestion of vessels waiting outside the port is growing.”
“Less rice for the same price: inflation bites Asia’s food stalls.
“Households in Asia, where tasty and affordable street food is an integral part of society and the economy, are feeling the pressure… Some businesses are dealing with the cost pressures by cutting portion sizes.”
“Indonesia police fire tear gas as students protest cooking oil prices…
“Indonesian police fired tear gas and water cannon on Monday to disperse hundreds of university students protesting high cooking oil prices and a mooted extension of President Joko Widodo’s stay in office.”
“Forex reserves declining in Nepal: Is the Himalayan kingdom going south the Sri Lanka way?
“Nepal’s economy seems to be heading south, the Sri Lankan way. The country is facing an economic crisis that has sent the prices soaring and the foreign exchange reserves diving nose down. And things seem to be heading for worse.”
“Inside Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis, people are dying in line for fuel.
“Newspaper stalls are empty because Sri Lanka doesn’t have enough paper for printing. Food sellers can’t get the ingredients they need for their products. For some vendors, even going to the toilet during their shift is too expensive.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-12/inside-sri-lankas-worst-economic-crisis-in-history/100975192
“India to face more power cuts due to coal shortage, soaring demand [current heatwave a factor there, I’m sure].
“Power cuts could stifle industrial activity in Asia’s third largest economy, just when economic activity was starting to recover after months of COVID-related lockdowns… Coal accounts for nearly 75% of India’s power output.”
“Punjab heading for financial disaster…
“Punjab is one of the most heavily indebted states of India today with its debt exceeding 47 per cent of its Gross State Domestic product (GSDP) which itself had contracted by 1.85 percent in the last fiscal.”
https://www.dailypioneer.com/2022/columnists/punjab-heading-for-financial-disaster.html
“Fuel shortage in Kenya escalates ahead of price changes…
“Delays in the payment of subsidies to the companies by the government have pushed up prices in the wholesale market where oil majors resell fuel to the smaller independent fuel retailers, who control 40 percent of the market.”
“BlackRock urged to delay debt repayments from crisis-torn Zambia.
“BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, has come under pressure to delay demands for debt interest payments from Zambia to prevent the crisis-hit African country’s finances from spiralling out of control.”
“Lebanon disburses funds to temporarily avert bread crisis.
“Lebanon’s government has agreed to disburse $15 million to temporarily resolve growing bread shortages in the country, Economy Minister Amin Salam told Reuters, while saying that the funds would only last a few weeks.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2062061/middle-east
“Saudi Arabia leads OPEC decision to drop IEA data as US ties fray.
“A decision driven by Saudi Arabia that OPEC+ should stop using oil data from the West’s energy watchdog reflected concern about U.S. influence on the figures, sources close to the matter said, adding to strain on ties between Riyadh and Washington.”
“OPEC has told the EU it’s ‘nearly impossible’ to replace Russian oil cut off by sanctions or boycotts…
“Last month, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, said that OPEC+ — which includes OPEC and other major producers such as Russia — will leave politics out of its decision-making, per CNBC.”
“War Gives Oil Producers Greater Clout at Global Climate Talks…
“United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei summed up the industry’s change in fortune at a conference in Dubai last month. “Oil producers felt unwanted in COP26, felt like we were in a corner,” he said. “Now, we’re like superheroes.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-11/war-gives-oil-producers-greater-clout-at-cop27
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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