“The war in Ukraine will create a global food crisis, the boss of one of the world’s biggest fertiliser companies has warned.
“Yara International, which operates in more than 60 countries, has warned of disruption to supplies from Russia of essential raw materials for fertiliser production.
“Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, said: “For me, it’s not whether we are moving into a global food crisis – it’s how large the crisis will be.”“
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60623941
“Rising oil prices could affect thousands of products.
“Climbing prices at the pump are the most visible reminder of the rising cost of oil. But what people can’t see is also costing them. Petroleum derivatives hide in thousands of everyday goods and household products, from microfiber to moisturizer to medicine.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/rising-oil-prices-affect-thousands-products-rcna18985
“Russia-Ukraine war sparks surge in coal price to unprecedented levels.
“The spot price for shipments leaving the Port of Newcastle in New South Wales soared to US$418 ($564) a tonne late last week, eclipsing the previous record of US$269 ($362) a tonne, which was set only four months ago.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-08/russia-ukraine-war-drives-high-global-coal-prices/100889762
“Nickel Tops $100,000 as Big Short Tests 145-Year-Old Exchange.
“Nickel spiked briefly above $100,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange amid a short squeeze that’s embroiled a major Chinese bank and encouraged rule changes from one of the world’s top commodity exchanges.”
“Gold hits $2,000 amid market scramble for precious metals.
“The price of gold broke through $2,000 an ounce on Monday as London’s market suspended the sale of Russian bars. Gold crossed the threshold on Monday morning, with some analysts predicting it will surpass a record high struck during the early months of the pandemic.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/07/gold-hits-2000-amid-market-scramble-precious-metals/
“IMF says war in Ukraine will have ‘severe impact’ on global economy…
“”While the situation remains highly fluid and the outlook is subject to extraordinary uncertainty, the economic consequences are already very serious,” the IMF said in a statement after a board meeting chaired by Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.”
“Tightening financial conditions sound alarm for world economy…
“Financial conditions is the umbrella phrase for how metrics such as exchange rates, equity swings and borrowing costs affect the availability of funding in the economy. How loose or tight conditions are dictate spending, saving and investment plans of businesses and households.”
“US gasoline hits a record: $4.14 a gallon.
“US drivers have never paid this much for gasoline. The price for a gallon of regular gas now stands at $4.14, according to the Oil Price Information Service, the firm that collects and calculates prices for AAA. That breaks the previous record of $4.11 a gallon that has stood since July 2008.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/energy/record-gas-price/index.html
“All farmers [Ireland] to be told to plant crops amid fears of food security crisis.
“All Irish farmers will be asked to plant some of their land in wheat, barley and other grains, as part of emergency plans being drawn up by the Government to offset a predicted food security crisis in Europe amid Russia’s ongoing assault on Ukraine, according to a report in the Business Post.”
“UK risks falling into ‘dystopian economic collapse’ over gas supply, former Tory minister says.
“Sir Alan Duncan, who has also worked as an energy trader, said “we have to pull the emergency cord” in order to sustain gas supplies across Europe. He warned the government to be cautious “not to sanction ourselves” amid calls for further measures against the Kremlin for its brutal invasion of Ukraine.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/russia-ukraine-gas-uk-alan-duncan-b2029995.html
“Ukraine crisis triggers ‘stagflationary shock’ for European stocks…
““Europe is probably already in recession,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “Consumers aren’t going to go out and spend the savings they’ve built up when there’s a war happening on their doorstep, and that’s before you consider a big increase in inflation.””
https://www.ft.com/content/73b3f45e-b096-436c-b6d0-3402a1e2b053
“Shell Starts to Limit Sales of Heating Oil in Germany.
“Shell Plc is limiting sales of heating oil to some wholesalers in Germany, the latest sign of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing chaos in the European energy market… German heating oil is a near-identical product to diesel in Europe, prices of which point to a market that’s running low on inventories.”
“Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Monday has said that Russia could cut natural gas supplies to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
““In connection with unfounded accusations against Russia regarding the energy crisis in Europe and the imposition of a ban on Nord Stream 2, we have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo…” Novak said.”
“Ukraine invasion fuels ‘fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since second world war’ … the UN’s high commissioner for refugees has warned.
“Filippo Grandi said on Sunday that “more than 1.5mn” refugees had fled Ukraine in the past 10 days, and officials in neighbouring countries said they expected the number to rise rapidly.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7772e7b4-4bbb-464b-be18-d27c58bf155e
“Russia braces for deep recession amid corporate exodus.
“With the Russian ruble sinking to fresh lows and global companies exiting the market, forecasts of a looming collapse of the $1.7 trillion Russian economy have grown since the Kremlin launched its military attacks on Ukraine less than two weeks ago.”
“A Russian debt default could spill over into emerging markets including China, according to Yale economist Stephen Roach.
“”If Russia does default on its debt…there will be broad spillover effects to sovereign debt in emerging markets around the world and China will not be unscathed from that,” he told “Squawk Box Asia” on Sunday.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-debt-default-could-spill-122724590.html
“…the global financial system looks set to split in two as Moscow turns to a Chinese payments system as a substitute for Visa and Mastercard.
“Lenders including Sberbank and Alfa Bank plan to move to China’s UnionPay for their customers’ bank cards – although an expert today said the move would take time and cause severe economic disruption. Russia has also been recently ejected from Swift…”
“China can’t count on global markets for food security, Xi Jinping says…
““The world has entered a new era of turbulence and change which makes domestic reform and development a challenging task,” state broadcaster CCTV quoted Xi as telling the members of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.”
“Taiwan foundries may be haunted by power shortage.
“A recent unexpected large-scale power outage in Taiwan has rekindled worries among foundries that they could suffer not only insufficient power supply during the peak power-consumption season in summer but also more blackouts without warning…”
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220304PD203/ic-manufacturing-power-outage-tsmc.html
“Hundreds of bakeries shut in Sri Lanka after cooking gas runs out.
“Nearly 1,000 bakeries have closed in Sri Lanka due to a severe shortage of cooking gas, an industry association said on Monday, as the impact of dwindling foreign exchange reserves ricochets through the country’s economy.”
“Oil Shock Risks Becoming ‘Nightmare’ for India’s Central Bank.
“The Ukraine war’s impact on global supply chains could force India’s central bank to raise its inflation forecast, but may leave little scope for it to tighten monetary policy amid a deteriorating global growth outlook…”
“The cost of insuring [Turkey] against a default hit its highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008 on Monday…
“The war threatens to stoke inflation, which had already hit 54% in February… As oil prices soar, major energy importer Turkey is facing a higher fuel bill and the loss of tourists from Russia and Ukraine, two of its key market…”
“‘We need bread’: fears in Middle East as Ukraine war hits wheat imports.
“Concerns are growing across the Middle East and north Africa that the war in Ukraine will send prices of staple foods soaring as wheat supplies are hit, potentially fuelling unrest.”
“Forty Moroccan cities see protests over spiralling living costs, caused by drought and Ukraine war…
“”We call for annulling the skyrocketing increases in many vital goods, and we demand an increase in the wages of workers and employees,” said the Moroccan Social Front, a non-governmental organisation that led Sunday’s protests.”
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/morocco-40-cities-erupt-protest-over-cost-living
“Rising fuel costs are crippling Africa’s economies.
“Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a record surge in fuel prices as the Russian invasion of Ukraine drives up already steep energy costs… Rising fuel prices are hitting Africans hard at a time when the prices of basic foods have also risen dramatically.”
https://www.dw.com/en/rising-fuel-costs-are-crippling-africas-economies/a-6096427
“Will the Ukraine war derail the green energy transition?
“…Economist Dieter Helm, professor of energy policy at Oxford university, says the shift away from fossil fuels has rarely looked more complicated. “The energy transition was already in trouble — 80 per cent of the world’s energy is still from fossil fuels,” he says.”
https://www.ft.com/content/93eb06ec-ba6c-4ad2-8fae-5b66235632b2
“Oil industry pleads with Wall Street to stop holding back investment. Oil industry chiefs have called on Wall Street to stop holding back investment in new crude supply as “chaos” and “bedlam” threaten to overwhelm energy markets amid fears the west will ban Russian oil exports following the invasion of Ukraine.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e45ab85c-f211-46d4-ba44-6b30de548ab4
“Inflation’s last fling… Imagine how quickly inflation could turn to deflation when the oil-price blow-off ends, as it must…
“…the only investable assets that won’t be collapsing will be the dollar and gold. The former will soar not because it is no longer crap, but because urgent demand from borrowers unable to roll loans will put it in a short-squeeze of epic dimensions…
” Deflation will impose hardships far more difficult to avoid than merely curtailing spending on certain items. It will be bankruptcy writ large, a rebuke to excesses that have been accumulating in the financial system for more than 30 years.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/inflations-last-fling-202203070325
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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Unfortunately so.