Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

Daily updates on climate change and the global economy.
Stay current with what’s happening around the world with a quick scan of top news.

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Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Spur Another Global Chip Shortage… Ukraine is home to half of the world’s neon gas, which is critical for manufacturing semiconductor chips

“Among Putin’s first targets was Odesa, a seaside city huddled around the Black Sea, and one of the country’s busiest ports. But it is also home to a little-known company called Cryoin, which plays a big role in the global production of semiconductors.”

https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-chip-shortage-neon/


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Ukrainian conflict will lead to more supply chain woes…

“… companies have no choice but to consider the implications of international trade relationships. Companies have had to overorder due to concerns about tariffs or scarcity of product for the past three years. The pandemic ordering behavior has driven warehouse prices up as capacity has contracted nearly every month since March of 2020, according to the Logistics Managers’ Index.”

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ukrainian-conflict-will-lead-to-more-supply-chain-woes


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The war in Ukraine looks set to have global consequences particularly in the farm patch…

“…the crisis will likely exacerbate an existing problem: A dearth of fertilizer used to feed crops, a recent report warns. “We don’t see the global fertilizer shortage situation abating anytime soon,” states a note from New York-based CFRA.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2022/02/28/ukraine-crisis-fertilizer-shortage-to-boost-plant-food-stocks/?sh=313e41377cf4


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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is threatening shockwaves through two of the world’s staple grain markets…

“In Tunisia, the agriculture ministry said it’s looking to Uruguay, Bulgaria and Romania for supplies of soft wheat to shield itself from possible supply disruptions, while Indonesian flour mills are also hunting for other origins due to the escalating crisis. A Moroccan millers group said it would turn to Argentina, France and Poland.”

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy-business/war-in-world-s-breadbasket-leaves-big-buyers-hunting-for-grain-1085589.html


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Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis. Even without sanctions, Russia’s war will increase the shortage of oil and gas…

“Even if the current sanctions imposed on Russia do not explicitly target the energy trade, sanctions on banks and other entities will impede Russia’s oil, natural gas, and coal exports, wreaking havoc on global energy markets.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-sanctions-crisis-prices-energy/


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Oil prices jump as Ukraine conflict stokes supply concerns.

“Oil prices surged on Tuesday as concerns over potential supply disruptions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions outweighing talks of a coordinated global crude stocks release.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-climb-market-weighs-release-reserves-vs-russia-disruption-2022-03-01/


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Iraq has stopped oil production from two southern fields with a combined capacity of almost half a million barrels a day.

“The shutdowns curtail the ability of OPEC’s second-largest member to pump crude just as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tight supplies globally send prices soaring.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/iraq-shuts-down-oil-fields-able-to-produce-almost-500k-b-d


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Ukraine war piles more complexity onto Fed’s tough inflation fight…

“”It just makes a time that was always going to be challenging all the more so,” Erica Goshen, a former senior Fed official, told the Agence France-Presse. Fed policymakers will be “watching the data very carefully.”

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/finance/ukraine-war-piles-more-complexity-onto-feds-tough-inflation-fight


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Stagflation Threat Rattles Bond Traders as Fog of War Descends.

“The world’s biggest bond market is signaling concern that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to an economic outcome the Federal Reserve is eager to avoid: persistent inflation and weak economic growth.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/stagflation-threat-rattles-bond-traders-as-fog-of-war-descends


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On cusp of Biden speech, a state of disunity, funk and peril…

“America’s strength is being sharply tested from within — and now from afar — as fate, overnight, made Biden a wartime president in someone else’s conflict, leading the West’s response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine that makes all the other problems worse.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-vladimir-putin-congress-barack-obama-washington-b2024371.html


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Will the permacrisis ever end [UK]? Brexit started it, the pandemic exacerbated it, war in Ukraine is adding to the sense of dread — and social media is amplifying it…

“We are living, it seems, in an age of permanent crisis; stumbling blindly from one calamity to the next.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/permacrisis-ever-end-covid-pandemic-brexit-ukraine-crisis-latest-fpznr05qk


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Transport for London has encouraged people to work from home on Tuesday and Thursday as thousands of tube workers went on strike, crippling the capital’s transport network.

“The Rail, Maritime and Transport union said its members were “solidly supporting” the industrial action with picket lines mounted outside tube stations.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/01/london-tube-strike-workers-stage-24-hour-walkout-in-jobs-dispute


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Kwasi Kwarteng warns Britons that energy prices WILL go up again and there is nothing the government can do about it…

“The Business Secretary delivered a grim message, pointing out that although the UK is not reliant on Russia for supplies wholesale gas prices have quadrupled.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10560237/Kwasi-Kwarteng-warns-Britons-energy-prices-again.html


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Europe looks to fossil fuels as Russian invasion sends energy shockwaves.

“Italy is turning to coal power to replace Russian gas, while Germany is fast-tracking LNG import terminals and considering extending the life of coal and nuclear plants as the impact of the Ukraine war is felt across Europe’s energy market.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/europe-looks-to-fossil-fuels-as-russian-invasion-sends-energy-shockwaves-20220228-p5a0de.html


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European Industry Faces Shrink or Shut Decisions on Energy Pain.

“Europe’s biggest industrial firms have been banking on spring to bring down soaring energy costs. Those hopes faded this week as Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/european-industry-faces-shrink-or-shut-decisions-on-energy-pain


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European subsidiary of Russia’s Sberbank ‘failing or likely to fail’: ECB.

“Sberbank Europe AG, headquartered in Austria and with branches in Croatia and Slovenia, has “experienced significant deposit outflows as a result of the reputational impact of geopolitical tensions”, the ECB said.”

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220228-european-subsidiary-of-russia-s-sberbank-failing-or-likely-to-fail-ecb


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Russia default ‘extremely likely’ if Ukraine crisis worsens, banking lobby says…

“The Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimated that half of the Russia’s central bank’s foreign reserves are held in countries which have imposed freezes on its assets, severely shrinking the bank’s policymaking firepower.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-extremely-likely-default-debts-if-ukraine-crisis-worsens-iif-2022-02-28/


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Russian markets were paralysed on Monday and traders struggled to price the rouble as international sanctions shook the country’s financial system.

“The Russian currency lost a third of its value in offshore trading at one point and hit an all-time low of 109.185 per dollar in Moscow. Quotes were infrequent and volatile… traders warned that low liquidity was making it difficult to match buyers and sellers.”

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3168713/ukraine-crisis-russian-rouble-plunges-30-cent-against-us


The West’s Sanctions Barrage Severs Russia’s Economy From Much of the World. Western banks and businesses added to the governments’ actions by halting operations in Russia and sales to Russian companies. Many cited the risks of potentially violating sanctions. More broadly, businesses prize stability, and invasions create chaos.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-ruble-financial-markets-are-hammered-by-sanctions-11646038133


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Shell joins BP and Equinor in pullback from Russia.

“Shell is pulling back from Russia and ending its involvement with the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project as the corporate backlash against Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine gains momentum. The decision comes a day after rival BP said it would sell its near 20 per cent stake in Russian oil company Rosneft…”

https://www.ft.com/content/cf7f4bc0-f3a1-4863-809f-c08f6e48642a


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Maersk, one of the world’s largest shipping container firms, said on Monday that it may suspend all deliveries to and from Russia in light of sanctions against the Kremlin following its invasion of Ukraine.

“The Danish shipping giant said it was “closely monitoring and preparing to comply with the ever-evolving sanctions and restrictions” imposed against Russia…”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-crisis-maersk-says-it-may-suspend-all-deliveries-to-russia.html


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Russia is dry run for bigger China sanctions test…

“If China did move on Taiwan, it would make the challenges of structuring Russia-Ukraine sanctions look like a cakewalk… Targeting China’s biggest banks could (also) harm the global economy. It’s home to four globally systemically important banks, according to the Financial Stability Board’s 2021 list.”

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russia-is-dry-run-for-bigger-china-sanctions-test


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US-China trade war: was the phase-one trade deal a ‘historic failure’, and what’s next? …according to a report, China bought only 57 per cent of the US exports it had committed to purchase over the two years of the deal…

“The US Chamber of Commerce also said that the White House was considering a new tariff probe and other options, such as taking actions with its allies, if current talks failed to persuade Beijing to meet the terms of the deal…”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3168399/us-china-trade-war-was-phase-one-trade-deal-historic-failure


Japan’s Output Falls as Supply Snags Add to Contraction Risk. Japan’s factory output fell for a second straight month in January as supply shortages continued to hurt manufacturers, adding to concern that the economy could shrink this quarter…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/japan-s-output-falls-as-supply-snags-add-to-contraction-fears


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South Africa Must Act to Avert Economic Ruin, Risk Managers Say.

South Africa risks becoming a failed state if its “lack of decisive, ethical, and courageous leadership” persists and no action is taken to bolster economic growth and address high levels of poverty, unemployment and inequality.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/risk-managers-urge-south-africa-to-act-to-avert-economic-ruin


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Turkey crippled by worst strikes since 1970s as workers struggle to buy bread… amid soaring inflation…

“Sevda, 27, stopped working at supermarket chain Migros this month in protest after management fired 257 of her colleagues for walking out to demand a pay rise of four liras (20 pence) an hour, the equivalent of a loaf of bread.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/turkey-crippled-worst-strikes-since-1970s-workers-struggle-buy/


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Breakaway north Cyprus reels from Turkish lira collapse.

“The lira’s slide, alongside surging global energy and food prices, sent inflation in northern Cyprus skyrocketing to 46 percent last year. “Two days after receiving my salary, I’m left with nothing,” said a hotel worker who asked not to be named.”

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220227-breakaway-north-cyprus-reels-from-turkish-lira-collapse


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Ukraine Crisis Risks Pushing Sri Lanka Closer to Default.

“With Covid shutting off tourism from much of the West, Russia and Ukraine had become an increasingly important source of foreign currency for Sri Lanka. The conflict threatens to turn off that tap as key bond repayments come due.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/ukraine-crisis-risks-pushing-sri-lanka-closer-toward-default


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Desperate Afghans sell kidneys amid poverty, starvation.

“Jobless, debt-ridden, and struggling to feed his children, Nooruddin felt he had no choice but to sell a kidney – one of a growing number of Afghans willing to sacrifice an organ to save their families.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/desperate-afghans-resort-to-selling-kidneys-to-feed-families


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Prepare for deflation…

“Although it’s true that higher oil prices will raise the cost of nearly everything, this will eventually choke off demand so tightly that only deepest recession (a.k.a. Depression) could conceivably result.

“That would cause financial assets that are hyperleveraged to energy resources to implode, deflating a $2 quadrillion derivatives edifice as well as paper assets that lie outside this market.”

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/prepare-for-deflation-202202280802


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What Is Fueling Our Century’s Global “Disorder”?

“…If we want a comprehensive explanation for the last decade’s disruptions, Thompson asserts, we need to examine the large-scale societal shifts—such as how the world produces and consumes energy—that are causing the international political system to be recast.”

https://www.thenation.com/article/culture/helen-thompson-disorder-interview/


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.

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