“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has begun meaning Britain will impose sanctions on Moscow, Sajid Javid has said this morning.
“Russian tanks and troops entered Ukraine’s breakaway eastern regions last night under the guise of a peacekeeping force after signing decrees recognising their independence. The order sending “peacekeeping missions” into Donetsk and Luhansk amounts to a de facto military invasion of the eastern corner of Ukraine.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-sends-tanks-into-ukraine-75dj973v8
“What’s at Stake for the Global Economy if Russia Invades Ukraine…
“An outright attack by Russian troops could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/business/economy/ukraine-russia-economy.html
“Oil marches towards $100 a barrel as markets watch Ukraine crisis deepens.
“Market commentators say the coming hours will determine the direction for energy costs – with any move towards sanctions and, worse, military conflict tipping oil and gas costs towards a big spike because of Russia’s hold over European supplies.”
“Russia Is A Major Supplier Of Oil To The U.S…
“… the U.S. economy is more vulnerable to oil price shocks, while higher oil prices are a net benefit to Russia and Saudi Arabia. Various talking heads have suggested that there will be a $5-$20 premium on oil prices if Russia invades Ukraine.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/02/21/russia-is-a-major-supplier-of-oil-to-the-us/
“U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks are on course to fall critically low between now and the middle of the year, creating conditions for a potential spike in both crude and fuel prices, unless demand from freight firms falls.
“Distillate inventories slipped by another 2 million barrels last week to 120 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/u-s-diesel-stocks-set-to-fall-critically-low/
“Drivers face fuel shortages as workers at UK’s largest refinery vote on strike action.
“Unite, the union, is balloting contractors at ExxonMobil’s Fawley refinery in Southampton following an “insulting” pay offer. The plant is one of the UK’s six major crude refineries which together supply the bulk of its petrol stations and airports.”
“Transport for London has a “matter of days” to avoid bankruptcy after again failing to agree a long-term funding deal with Government, Sadiq Khan has warned.
“The emergency funding deal agreed in June last year was again extended over the weekend until February 25. It is the fourth short-term extension to be agreed.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tfl-funding-crisis-government-sadiq-khan-b983628.html
“Bankruptcies return with a vengeance as British business comes off life support…
““There are some deep-seated challenges in the UK economy,” says Colin Haig, head of restructuring at accountancy firm Azets. “There are a number of supply chain issues. There are inflation pressures on the economy. And what’s happening in Eastern Europe is rattling people’s marginal propensity to spend.””
“As inflation hits 30-year high, UK households start to buckle.
“After work in the evenings, Nicola Frape turns off the heating and huddles under a blanket with her daughter and a hot water bottle. Adding a layer costs nothing, she says, but leaving the boiler on drains her inflation-hit bank account.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/inflation-hits-30-year-high-uk-households-start-buckle-2022-02-22/
“Germany Tipped Into Second Recession by Virus, Bundesbank Says…
““In contrast to previous waves of the pandemic, it’s not just the services sector that’s hit by restrictions and adapted behavior,” the Bundesbank said. Pandemic-related absence by workers will “markedly” hit activity in other areas too.”
“Soaring Energy Prices Pose An Existential Threat To German Businesses.
“Nearly one-fourth of Germany’s medium-sized enterprises fear they might not survive the soaring energy prices, a survey by the Federation of German Industries, BDI, showed on Monday. Industries across Europe have been suffering from the surging energy prices…”
“How Europeans Are Responding to Exorbitant Gas and Power Bills.
“High energy prices in Europe are upending people’s lives. While some are installing solar panels, others are stoking their wood-burning stoves… The flow of gas could be interrupted now that the Kremlin has ordered Russian troops into separatist territories of Ukraine.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/business/europe-power-gas-bill.html
“Switzerland at risk of EU blacklist after Credit Suisse leak.
“The fallout from a huge leak of Credit Suisse banking data threatened to damage Switzerland’s entire financial sector on Monday after the European parliament’s main political grouping raised the prospect of adding the country to a money-laundering blacklist.”
“The $5 Trillion Inflation Time Bomb No One’s Talking About [Japan]…
“Earlier this month, the BOJ intervened to enforce its “yield-curve control” policy for the first time since 2018. For this, there are two clear takeaways. One, the idea the BOJ will be tapering anytime soon is rather fanciful. Two, Japan’s bond market could become a bigger risk to global financial stability than investors realize.”
“China’s Great Economic Weakness…
“Now it seems that 20% of China’s housing stock is unoccupied. Even if China now razes these excess structures, the debts will remain. Evergrande’s debt overhang is a part of this more general picture. Nor is housing the only area where central planning has missed the mark and created great waste.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2022/02/21/chinas-great-economic-weakness/
“‘Go home’: Protests against foreigners resurface in South Africa.
“They turned up in a mob of several hundred at a migrant centre in South Africa’s Soweto township — unemployed, wielding weapons and angry with foreigners they accuse of taking their jobs.”
https://www.wionews.com/world/go-home-protests-against-foreigners-resurface-in-south-africa-454770
“Thousands of Moroccans protest against soaring fuel prices and other costs…
“The North African kingdom is the latest of several countries where public anger has erupted over high global energy prices, which are driving inflation to decade-high levels around the world… The Moroccan demonstrations coincided with the anniversary of the wave of protests known as the February 20 movement, inspired by the Arab uprisings that took place around the region in 2011.”
“Russian invasion risks pushing families across Middle East and North Africa into severe hunger.
“Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world, while Ukraine has significantly climbed the ranks in grain exports over the last decade. Families who already face skyrocketing food prices could see the cost of staple items climb even higher if supply chains are disrupted…”
“Ethiopia dismisses ‘rumours’ Nile mega-dam will ‘starve Egypt and Sudan’…
“The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is set to be the largest hydroelectric scheme in Africa but has been at the centre of a dispute with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan ever since work first began in 2011.”
“Middle Eastern Oil Nations Hike Prices As Production Falters.
“When OPEC+ agreed on its 400,000 b/d monthly increases back in August 2021, the overwhelming expectation for the first months of 2022 was a gradual return to normality… Fast-forward to today and the world is facing a completely different picture…”
“Scandal deepens as Lebanon’s central bank chief ducks court appearance.
“… last week, the veteran banker appeared to have vanished as State Security forces, charged with bringing him before a judge to be questioned over allegations of corruption and misconduct, struggled to locate him… The extraordinary events shocked even Lebanese…”
https://www.ft.com/content/cf36ce25-5b52-4341-afa8-2a11aebdbcee
“Farmers in Pakistan are holding sit-in protests in Lahore against a massive increase in petroleum prices.
“Protesters say the price-hike will financially squeeze middle- and working-class farmers who are already suffering from fertilizer shortages. In the Parliament, coalition partners and opposition alike criticized the decision to raise prices…”
https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/pakistani-farmers-protest-rising-fuel-prices/
“Sri Lanka inflation hits record high as crisis worsens.
“Sri Lanka’s inflation hit a record high for the fourth consecutive month, official data showed Tuesday (Feb 22)… The record highs came as the South Asian island struggles to find dollars to finance essential imports, including food, fuel and medicines.”
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/sri-lanka-inflation-hits-record-high-crisis-worsens-2512651
“Huge protests in Nepal sparked by US offer of $500m grant with no strings attached.
“Police used tear gas shells, water cannons and rubber bullets to disperse protesters who crashed into barbed wire barricades outside the parliament, leaving several injured on both sides.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/nepal-kathmandu-protests-us-grant-b2019526.html
“Soaring fuel prices complicate aviation sector’s recovery from the pandemic.
“The aviation and shipping sectors are among the most fuel-sensitive sectors. Airlines face challenging times and high fuel costs can influence their profitability path, while shipping companies operating vessels ‘on the spot’ are most vulnerable to rising costs.”
“The global climate attention crisis.
“In November, governments committed to revisit their emissions goals in 2022… But with the threat of a war in Europe, the ongoing pandemic and a global energy supply crunch, there are concerns the climate crisis will slip off the global priority list.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/cop-26-progress-global-climate-crisis-cop-27/
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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