“White House Helpless As Oil Prices Climb Higher… Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude to reach $90 per barrel later this year… JP Morgan recently said that crude could reach and exceed $100…
“What this means for the Biden administration and its efforts to keep gasoline affordable for voters ahead of the midterms is nothing good… The reason for this is structural. The supply problem is not a temporary issue that can be fixed quickly or easily.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/White-House-Helpless-As-Oil-Prices-Climb-Higher.html
“Oil climbs to more than 7-year high on Mideast tensions, tight supply…
“”Analyst forecasts expect demand to outstrip supply this year as the world opens up from 2 years of lockdowns and resumes a more normal trajectory for demand,” said Ash Glover at CMC Markets. The tight supply-demand balance is unlikely to ease, analysts said.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-more-than-7-year-high-mideast-tensions-2022-01-18/
“Hundreds of UK construction businesses are going bust every month as materials prices have risen and the pool of skilled workers has shrunk after Brexit.
“An average of 266 businesses per month collapsed in the three months to October, the largest number since before the pandemic and a 29 per cent rise on the previous period, according to the latest Insolvency Service data.”
https://www.ft.com/content/68be174d-3e3b-441f-b72f-2282adc29e7f
“Millions [UK] face second record energy price hike this year, analysts warn…
“Millions of households could face a second record energy price hike this year which would lift the average gas and electricity bill to £2,255 from October, intensifying the UK’s cost of living crisis.”
“Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary.
“Britain is supplying Ukraine with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence after Russia amassed about 100,000 troops on its border, the defence secretary said. Ben Wallace told MPs a small team of British troops would also be sent to Ukraine to provide training.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012
“If the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, gas prices in Europe – which soared to highs last year – could surge further, research firm Capital Economics said…
“William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics pointed out that in addition to Europe’s reliance on Russia for gas, stock supplies are also low right now.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/russia-ukraine-crisis-could-spark-rise-in-europe-gas-prices.html
“Gazprom’s daily gas exports to its main markets shrank in the first 15 days of the new year to the lowest since 2015 while criticism is growing that it’s withholding supplies to Europe…
“Russian gas shipments to Europe have been closely watched as a shortage of the fuel — and soaring prices — hurt economies across the continent.”
“Russia’s Gazprom has no Europe gas exports planned in February via Yamal pipeline.
“Russian state energy giant Gazprom said on Monday it has not booked any capacity to pump gas to Europe through the Yamal pipeline next month, underscoring a sharp drop-off in Russian exports to the region so far this year.”
“Eurogroup nations seek path between high inflation, slower growth.
“Eurogroup finance chiefs are engaged in a high-wire political balancing act prompted by conflicting economic forces: a weaker growth outlook and stronger inflation.”
“Fewer beans for your buck: Food price spike forces rethink in Eastern Europe.
“Central and Eastern European governments are scrambling to stave off anger from voters over skyrocketing food prices, with some politicians advocating measures that critics liken to communist-era policies.
“Inflation has sent the costs of pantry staples soaring…”
https://www.politico.eu/article/food-price-inflation-eastern-europe-poland-romania/
“A Balkan Crisis Looms As Ethnic Clashes In Bosnia Worsen.
“Ethnic divisions in Bosnia-Herzegovina have continued to widen this week as Bosnian Serbs, encouraged by their leaders, reportedly harassed Bosniak Muslim neighborhoods, sang songs in the streets celebrating war criminals, and even fired shots near mosques.”
https://theowp.org/a-balkan-crisis-looms-as-ethnic-clashes-in-bosnia-worsen/
“Albania’s state-owned electricity-producing company is planning to lease a thermal power plant from a third party in the hopes of combatting the energy emergency declared back in October.
“Currently, Albania produces almost exclusively hydropower, however, this is only the case during the spring and summer. During the winter, it is forced to import power from neighbouring countries.”
“The number of newborns in China fell for a fifth straight year to the lowest in modern Chinese history, despite Beijing’s increasing emphasis on encouraging births.
“Births of 10.62 million, down from 12.02 million in 2020, barely outnumbered deaths, which came in at 10.14 million, bringing the date ever closer when China’s population starts to shrink.”
“China’s economic growth slowed last quarter as consumer spending took a dive, giving the central bank cause to cut its key interest rate for the first time in almost two years…
“The outlook for 2022 is still unclear, with global demand forecast to slow, the omicron variant still spreading inside and outside the country, and no end to the housing market crisis…”
“China’s Property Sector Contraction Worsens in Blow to Economy…
“Output in the real-estate sector shrank 2.9% in the fourth quarter after a 1.6% contraction in the previous three months, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday in a supplemental report on gross domestic product. That was the first consecutive quarterly decline since 2008.”
“Financial contagion is roaring back in China’s property industry, putting renewed pressure on Xi Jinping’s government to do more to insulate the nation’s stronger developers.
“Monday was the worst day on record for dollar bonds of Country Garden Holdings Co., China’s largest developer by sales.”
“Evergrande – has the bubble already burst?
“… It may seem a somewhat fanciful notion, but few identified the systemic fault lines in the US property market which undermined the global financial system in 2008… the real estate industry accounts for around 30 per cent of China’s economic output, so its health is entwined with prospects for the global economy.”
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/01/17/evergrande-has-the-bubble-already-burst/
“China’s Xi calls on nations to secure global supply chains… Leader of world’s No. 2 economy makes remarks amid preparations to secure unprecedented third term in power…
““The global industrial and supply chains have been disrupted,” Xi said. “Commodity prices continue to rise. Energy supply remains tight. These risks compound one another and heighten the uncertainty about the economic recovery.””
“Toyota [world’s largest automaker] cuts February output, expects to miss annual production target on chips crunch…
“In a statement on Tuesday, Toyota said the semiconductor shortage would force it to reduce worldwide output by 150,000 units in February to about 700,000 vehicles. Toyota put the blame for the February downturn on the ongoing microchip crisis.”
“Stagflation looms large [for Nepal]…
“Decreasing remittances, dwindling forex reserves and widening balance of payment deficit are impossible to be reversed overnight… inflation has spiralled upwards, with the entire banking industry suffocating with a severe crunch of loanable funds in the market, commonly termed as a ‘liquidity crisis.”
https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2022/01/17/stagflation-looms-large
“Pakistan resists Covid lockdown as economic anxiety mounts…
“Imran Khan’s government is resisting Covid-19 restrictions despite the rapid spread of infections in Pakistan, as his government tries to avoid exacerbating an economic crisis that is challenging his popularity.”
https://www.ft.com/content/45f7b0a3-d050-4afc-9c12-bdb966d971f6
“Sri Lanka on the edge as debt burden mounts…
“Hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, Sri Lanka is facing its most serious financial crisis in years, raising doubts about its ability to pay its creditors… The country also needs around $20 billion for essential imports such as fuel, food and intermediate goods for exports.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/sri-lanka-edge-debt-burden-mounts-2022-01-17/
“Sudan’s inflation accelerates to 359.09% in 2021.
“Sudan’s headline inflation rate averaged 359.09% in 2021, up from 163.26% in 2020, the Central Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday… Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food, increased to 443.48% in December.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/sudan-economy-inflation-idUSKBN2JQ0CH
“State collapse is the most likely threat for the next two years for Tunisia, showed the results of a perception survey on the various global risks…
“Only five other countries (Lebanon, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Peru and Honduras), put state collapse as the first risk, “said the Arab Institute of Business Managers (IACE), official partner of the World Economic Forum…”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202201180197.html
“Beirut internet blackout adds to turmoil in Lebanon.
“The state-run internet company in Lebanon has warned of rolling blackouts as its generators run out of fuel, in the latest sign of the country’s political and economic collapse. Ogero said that generators in west Beirut were out of diesel…”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beirut-internet-blackout-adds-to-turmoil-in-lebanon-rhpsc8x7h
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a patron of my work via Patreon. And if you are already a subscriber or have donated – thank you! It really means a lot.
