This is useless, “head in the clouds” academia and stagflation is not where we are ultimately headed. Rather we face losing the ability to grow food at scale and possibly the total implosion of the financial system via deflationary death spiral even in advance of that.
But FWIW: “Climate crisis will bring global stagflation… Central banks must rethink and expand analysis…“Whatever policies central banks do have at their disposal need to be implemented soon if they are to be of any use. ‘I wouldn’t recommend postponing preparation,’ was the advice given by Jaromír Tonner, a senior economist from the Czech Central Bank.”
OH DEAR. My car appears to have stagflated.
Could An Energy Crunch Lead To A Worldwide Financial Crisis? [Yes, it could]…“
“There is a case that can be made that the present day liquidity profile and reduced capital investment in upstream sources for new supplies of petroleum, match the similar scenario of the 2008-9 financial crisis.”
“The Bakken oilfield in North Dakota, the birthplace of America’s oil boom a decade ago, is struggling to recover from last year’s market crash even as crude prices have surged back to $80 a barrel.
“…analysts say the Bakken faces a bleak future after years of intensive drilling.”
US Coal Prices Soar to 12-Year High as Energy Crisis Deepens. The price of coal hit the highest in more than a decade, further adding to out-of-control inflationary pressures that are turning out to be anything but transitory…“
“Central Appalachia coal prices soared to $89.75 per short ton last Friday, marking the highest price since 2009.”
Michigan schools are closing because of staff shortages. Get used to it…“
“…while COVID-19 infections continue to play a role in those closures, the primary problem appears to be the same one plaguing corner coffee shops and factory floors across the state: a shortage of workers.”
US school bus drivers in nationwide strikes over poor pay and Covid risk.“
“… the drivers of the vehicles that shuttle America’s children to and from school are now caught up in the wave of labor unrestsweeping across the US in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“A growing chorus of market watchers is saying the Federal Reserve may have to speed up its reduction of asset purchases in light of the fastest inflation in 30 years.
“The calls, ranging from former New York Fed President Bill Dudley to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, are coming at a tricky time for the central bank…”
UK inflation surges to a 10-year high of 4.2%, worse than expected.“
“The U.K.’s Consumer Prices Index rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to October 2021, up from 3.1% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had a expected a figure of 3.9% for October.”
Diesel price passes 150p a litre for first time [UK].“
“The price of diesel has risen to a new record high, surpassing 150p per litre for the first time, according to the AA.
“The average price on Sunday was 150.09p, after hitting a high of 150.5p the day before, the AA said.”
[UK] Energy crisis: Two more suppliers collapse as pipeline delay prompts fresh gas price spike.“
“The demise of Neon Reef and Social Energy Supply takes to 21 the number of suppliers that have collapsed since the start of September, affecting a total of more than two million customers.”
Germany suspends approval for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.“
“Germany has suspended its approval process for the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which would double its reliance on Russian gas following growing geopolitical pressure to scrap the project.” [Prices surge…]
European Central Bank warns of bubbles in property and financial markets.“
“The European Central Bank warned of stretched valuations in many asset markets, as the region continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic on the back of ultra-low interest rates and massive stimulus measures.”
Clashes erupt at Belarus-Poland border as refugee crisis worsens…“
“Earlier on Tuesday, more Polish police and security forces arrived at the border to prevent what Polish authorities claimed was an attempt by refugees to illegally cross into Polish – and European Union – territory.”
Russia’s central bank chief warned Monday that record-breaking inflation was a “real disaster” for the country and urged the government to take action.“
“Inflation in Russia has been rising steeply for months, reaching 8.1 per cent year-on-year in October…”
‘We don’t deserve this’: Inflation hits Turkish people hard…“
“Market-stand owner Kadriye Dogru makes do with stale, sesame-covered bagels, known as simit, for lunch these days. The widowed mother of two says she goes without lunch so she can put food on the table for her family later in the day.”
Why Is Central Asia Suffering From Severe Electricity Shortages?“
“Central Asians from western Kazakhstan to southern Tajikistan are suffering from power and energy shortages that have caused hardship and emergency situations affecting the lives of millions of people.”
“Japan Offers Financial Aid to Oil Refiners Amid Rising Costs. Japan is stepping in to bear some of the burden faced by its oil refiners as higher crude feedstock costs threaten to flow through into fuel prices and inflation.”
Sri Lanka shuts only oil refinery to manage forex crisis.“
“Sri Lanka has temporarily shut its only oil refinery as part of efforts to manage dwindling foreign exchange reserves, the energy minister said on Tuesday, triggering long queues at petrol stations.”
Thousands of people protest against economic crisis in Sri Lanka.“
“Thousands of people took to the streets of Sri Lanka’s capital to protest against worsening economic conditions including shortages of fuel and essential goods.”
“High inflation returns to Brazil: ‘each week there are different prices’…
“Over the past 12 months, Brazilian shoppers have witnessed sharp rises in products ranging from refined sugar (48 per cent) and cooking gas (38 per cent) to airline tickets (50 per cent).”
“Brazilian economic activity contracted in the third quarter, a central bank indicator showed on Tuesday, signaling a possible recession for Latin America’s largest economy.”
“Argentina faces painful adjustments if it is to end its debt crisis…
“What next? One option, unpalatable to many, would be to dollarise the economy…
“However, since Argentina has been unable to manage its inflation, and the black-market rate is again double the official rate with net official reserves low, are there other viable options?”
Bolivia protests to continue until contentious law is formally repealed.“
“Protests continued Monday in Bolivia for an eighth straight day as part of an indefinite strike until parliament fulfills President Luis Arce’s promise to repeal a controversial law considered contrary to civil liberties.”
“Wrangling over Eskom debt compounds South Africa’s energy crisis.
“After years of wrangling, South Africa appears no closer to finalising a plan to cut Eskom’s R402-billion of debt to more sustainable levels… The lack of consensus between the key players bodes ill for a speedy end to power outages that have hamstrung the economy since 2005.”
“Zimbabwe has an energy crisis. North bank of Kariba dam power station had tripped out…
“It is now clear that our failure to invest in power generation and distribution over the past 40 years has caught up with us in a big way.”
Dirty dollars: how tattered US notes became the latest street hustle in Zimbabwe…“
“Shortages have led to the government telling banks and retailers not to reject old or worn US dollars, but many defy the order. A lack of exports means fewer new notes in circulation, and Zimbabweans are re-using increasingly grubby notes.”
“Nigerian oil union threatens strike action over pay issues.
“One of Nigeria’s main oil and gas unions said on Tuesday it had issued a 14-day warning of strike action over several labour disputes, including those with oil majors Chevron and Eni.”
“Investors Seek Reassurance on Debt from Ghana’s 2022 Budget…
“Investors are concerned about Ghana’s ability to service its loans with the average extra premium sought on dollar securities sold by the government now close to distressed levels.”
“Kenya Debt Costs to Rise as Shilling Hits All-Time Low Against the Dollar.
“Kenya’s debt service costs, which are expected to surge by 22% this fiscal year, are set to rise even further as the East African economy’s currency sinks to all-time lows against the dollar.”
Ironically, more than 2.4 million Kenyans face acute starvation while cereal farmers in the North Rift region, the country’s food basket, are experiencing market challenges for their produce.“
“The farmers are staring at heavy losses due to the deteriorating prices of the cereals — maize and wheat…”
Container Shipping Rates May Take Two Years to Fall to Normal.“
“Ocean freight rates, which have pummeled retailers and manufacturers throughout 2021, may take more than two years to return to normal levels if past market cycles are any guide.”
“Slackflation Beckons as Global Growth Goes Off the Boil…
“How about a little slackflation? Asia’s recovery is losing its footing, with potentially significant consequences. Slowing world growth that’s not quite stagnant, combined with a prolonged period of uncomfortably quick price increases, might be with us for a while.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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