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Fertilizer Prices Rocket to Fresh All-Time Highs on Tightening Supplies. Fertilizer prices keep soaring to unprecedented heights, signalling escalating costs for farmers and consumers around the world…

“Crop-nutrient prices have been soaring as an energy pinch in Europe makes natural gas, the main feedstock for most nitrogen fertilizer, more costly.

“China and Russia are restricting nutrient exports to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. U.S. consumers already are seeing the steepest inflation since 1990.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/fertilizer-prices-rocket-to-new-record-for-second-week


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Oil cost $147 the last time U.S. gasoline was as expensive as now.

“U.S. retail gasoline prices are poised to average more than $4 a gallon in three states for the first time in 13 years as energy prices surge and fan fears of inflation. The average price of gasoline is already above $4 a gallon in California and Hawaii…”

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/11/12/oil-cost-147-the-last-time-us-gasoline-was-as-expensive-as-now


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[US] Consumer Anger About Inflation Can Make a 1970s Rerun Real.

“The last U.S. CPI report was a doozy, with inflation coming in at the highest in three decades.

“But Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is equally worrying for what it says about inflation’s impact on the economy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/consumer-anger-about-inflation-can-make-a-1970s-rerun-real


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America’s savings are trapped in a bubble.

“Stocks have become grotesquely overvalued as a result, and it is delusional to think any significant portion of the hoarded capital can ever be freed up to rebuild America’s dilapidated cities, highways, bridges, transit systems, railways and airports. The savings are illusory to begin with…”

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/americas-savings-are-trapped-in-a-bubble-202111150057


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The [US] Student Loan Crisis Is Worse Than You Think… Today, according to the latest student loan debt statistics, there are 45 million student loan borrowers who collectively owe $1.7 trillion of student loans.

“Without reform, student loan borrowers and their families will continue to be saddled with student loan debt and the federal government will be financially liable if student loan borrowers default…£

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/11/13/the-student-loan-crisis-is-worse-than-you-think/


Meet a [US] therapist with $81,000 in student debt, who worked in public service for 20 years, and can’t get loan forgiveness: ‘People in the helping professions are getting totally screwed over’.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/meet-therapist-81-000-student-111500548.html


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[UK] Student loans will have to be repaid back faster, under new government plans to make an extra £2.5billion a year.

“Presently, student loans only have to be paid back if graduates earn £27,295 annually. But, under new plans, the salary threshold could decrease to £22,000 and force those on average incomes to pay an extra £475 to the Treasury per year.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10198029/Graduates-start-repaying-student-loans-salary-hits-22-000.html


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UK business sentiment hits 12-month low amid supply chain and inflation woes.

“British business sentiment dropped to its lowest level in a year in October, dragged down by fears of looming inflation and supply chain pressures that could undermine a sustained recovery from Covid disruption.”

https://www.cityam.com/uk-business-sentiment-hits-12-month-low-amid-supply-chain-and-inflation-woes/


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Third of UK’s remaining energy suppliers are at imminent risk of collapse.

“Fourteen electricity and gas suppliers are now deemed ‘maximum risk’ under their credit score, according to accountant Price Bailey.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/14/third-uks-remaining-energy-suppliers-imminent-risk-collapse/


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Is Russia Sending Enough Natural Gas To Europe?

“…Overall, the increased Russian gas flow isn’t any more than it should have been at this time of year under contractual agreement. It’s not enough to assure Europe that it can avert an energy crisis.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Russia-Sending-Enough-Natural-Gas-To-Europe.html


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A shock invasion of Ukraine would trigger economic chaos for Europe.

“Energy prices would explode and the euro would implode if Russia repeats its 2014 annexation of Crimea on a far wider scale… there can be no question that a serious conflict is brewing on Europe’s Eastern frontier along the border between Russia and Ukraine.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/13/shock-invasion-ukraine-would-trigger-economic-chaos-europe/


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Thailand: International Tourism May Take Years To Recover – Analysis…

“The partial opening of borders to visitors from 63 countries, comes at a time when bars, entertainment businesses remain closed across the country, and restaurants in most parts of the country are not allowed to serve liquor with meals.”

https://www.eurasiareview.com/13112021-thailand-international-tourism-may-take-years-to-recover-analysis/


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Without tourists Kyoto is on the verge of bankruptcy.

“Tourism in Japan’s former imperial capital fell by 88 per cent in 2020. The deficit in the current fiscal year hovers around US$ 440 million. While the mayor is trying to avoid bankruptcy with a restructuring plan, some see it as not ambitious enough.”

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Without-tourists-Kyoto-is-on-the-verge-of-bankruptcy-54495.html


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Japan’s economy shrinks more than expected as supply shortages hit.

“Japan’s economy contracted much faster than expected in the third quarter as global supply disruptions hit exports and business spending plans and fresh COVID-19 cases soured the consumer mood.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-economy-shrinks-more-than-expected-supply-shortages-hit-2021-11-14/


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Squid games reflects reality for indebted South Korean households…

“We’ve put together six charts that show the tough reality of life in South Korea, where household debt is among the highest in the world and where house prices in the capital rose by 22% last year.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/squid-game-reflects-reality-south-korean-household-debt-charts-2021-11?r=US&IR=T


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Yellen says economic slowdown in China would have “global consequences.

“The Biden administration is closely watching the situation unfolding in China with the world’s most indebted property developer, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who warned that its struggles to pay back billions in loans could have repercussions for the global economy.”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/janet-yellen-china-evergrande-global-consequences-face-the-nation/


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China home prices fall as property slowdown threatens economic outlook…

“New home prices in China fell for the second consecutive month in October, as a property slowdown and mounting distress at real estate developers clouded the country’s economic outlook.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3d923307-8aed-4150-84f6-3ee2faca36dc


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Singles’ Day sales hit by rising anti-consumerism sentiment, China’s youth warn of ‘vicious circle’…

“Anti-consumerism sentiment among young people in China concerned with overindulgence dominated the world’s largest online shopping festival this year, adding to the recent social phenomena of “lying flat” and “involution”.”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3155887/singles-day-sales-hit-rising-anti-consumerism-sentiment


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How China’s hard landing could expose Australia as a one-trick export pony hitched to one wagon.

“Since May, iron ore prices have slumped 60 per cent from then-record levels, as construction and infrastructure have tanked with prices for our most valuable export last week crashing below $US90 ($123) a tonne. It’s not just iron ore. Coal prices… are in free-fall.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-15/how-china-hard-landing-will-hit-australia-one-trick-export-pony/100620020


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Amid the severe energy crisis in Pakistan, domestic and industrial consumers will suffer shortages during the winter season as Imran Khan-led government decided to continue gas supply to the power and fertiliser sectors, local media reported…

Pakistan is on the verge of a massive shortage of gas and rationing…”

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/pakistan-domestic-industrial-consumers-to-face-gas-shortage-in-winter20211113030837/


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Tunisians protest against President Saied’s power grab…

“Tunisian police have clashed with protesters near the chamber of the suspended parliament as demonstrators marched against President Kais Saied’s seizure of political power four months ago.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/14/tunisians-protest-against-president-saied-near-parliament


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Al Jazeera bureau chief arrested in Sudan amid deadly anti-coup protests…

“The European Union on Sunday condemned “in the strongest terms the violence perpetrated against peaceful civilian protesters” on Saturday, and said it was “very worried” by the detention of journalists.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/15/al-jazeera-bureau-chief-arrested-in-sudan-amid-deadly-anti-coup-protests


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Nigeria’s crude oil production has been declining steadily in the last few months… sources told The Nation yesterday.

“The situation has made the country lose its No.1 position in oil production in Africa to Libya. One of the sources said some of the multinational oil companies are discreetly withdrawing their investment in the industry.”

https://thenationonlineng.net/why-nigeria-crude-oil-production-is-declining-by-experts/


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OPEC+ oil ministers point to a massive surplus early next year as their justification for sticking to a plan of only modest production increases. But those forecasts are built on fanciful numbers — and they’re wrong

“[and] based on highly inflated estimates of the group’s own future production.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-14/opec-s-fears-of-an-oil-glut-are-built-on-faulty-forecasts


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Why Are Oil Prices So High When The U.S. Remains One Of The World’s Largest Producers?

“…What is explicitly holding U.S. producers back from drilling and fracking more with prices at $85 and some experts anticipating $100 soon? It’s mainly investor demands for higher financial returns.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2021/11/13/why-are-oil-prices-so-high-when-the-us-remains-one-of-the-worlds-largest-producers/


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Lithium Shortage May Stall Electric Car Revolution…

“The electric car revolution will stall in the West if supplies of crucial battery elements like lithium fail to keep up with the forecast huge increase in demand. This will drive battery prices higher [and] decimate profit margins…”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/11/14/lithium-shortage-may-stall-electric-car-revolution-and-embed-chinas-lead-report/


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Ships at California ports are now waiting a record 17 days to unload: Supply crisis gets worse after Biden vowed to fix it.

“There were as many as 83 ships at anchor and in a holding pattern outside ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach as of Friday night, a new record.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10199137/Backup-container-ships-outside-California-nearly-17-days.html


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The supply chain crisis could last up until 2023, Associated British Ports (ABP) – the UK’s biggest port operator – has warned

“The global supply chain crisis is not only affecting the shipping industry but it’s also undermining the country’s economic growth, City A.M. reported.”

https://www.cityam.com/supply-chain-crisis-last-2023-uk-ports-warn/


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Budget Cuts Will Take a Big Chunk Out of World Economy Next Year.

“Financial markets are fixated on how the world’s central banks will adjust monetary policy as they grapple with inflation. But it’s fiscal tightening — the withdrawal of pandemic spending — that will likely have more impact on the global economy next year.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/budget-cuts-will-take-a-big-chunk-out-of-world-economy-next-year


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Central banks enter dangerous new territory…

“The Fed managed to dance on the head of this pin following the global financial crisis as inflation was dormant, the lift-off was gradual, and its portfolio was much smaller… This time, the set-up is different, not just for the Fed but also for central banks around the world.”

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/central-banks-enter-dangerous-new-territory-20211114-p598r0


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.

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