“Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warns of a looming global food crisis… “It is obvious that a world food crisis is coming. Food prices are on the rise everywhere, food inflation is accelerating,” Medvedev said in an article published by the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper.
“He emphasized that the world economy is suffering from a recession, which is much more serious than during the financial crisis of 2008-2009.”
“China’s Latest Crackdown Targets Binge Eating and Wasting Food.
“Beijing released an action plan on Monday that tells diners not to order more than they need and encourages consumers to report restaurants for wasting food… The plan through 2025 follows calls by President Xi Jinping to reduce food waste and bolster food security.”
“China Faces Unprecedented Petrol And Diesel Price Surge In Backdrop Of Power Crisis.
“Reports suggest that across China, signposts “Sorry out of use” have turned more common at the petrol bunks reflecting the dire fuel crisis situation.”
“The Global Energy Crunch Has Sent Steel Production Crashing.
“Metals producers around the world have felt the burden of rising energy costs… Top producer China saw its output fall from 83.2 million metric tons to 73.8 million metric tons in September.”
“Lab-Grown Diamonds Are Latest Victims of China’s Power Crisis.
“The lab-grown diamond industry is the latest sector to feel the effects of China’s energy crisis — and if the situation gets worse, consumers may find that special Christmas gift is suddenly a lot more expensive.”
“China Developers’ Dollar Bond Sales Fall to Lowest in 18 Months. Chinese real estate firms’ sales of dollar bonds tumbled to their lowest level since pandemic worries roiled markets last year, as default risks have effectively frozen borrowers out of the offshore market.”
“Chinese developer Yango offers to swap dollar bonds to avoid defaults.
“Chinese developer Yango Group said on Monday it has launched an offer to exchange some of its U.S. dollar bonds and is seeking the support of investors to change the terms of the remaining ones to improve its liquidity and avoid defaults.”
“China’s Home Sales Slump Persists, Clouding Economic Outlook.
“China’s major developers saw home sales tumble last month, prolonging the real estate slump and putting more pressure on growth in the world’s second-largest economy.”
“China’s property sector woes could spell trouble for prestige megaprojects in London, New York, Sydney and other top cities as the developers behind them scramble for cash.
“While China Evergrande Group’s struggles have dominated the crisis, the risk to multitrillion-dollar global property markets stems from some of its rivals that have spent the last decade competing to build ever taller and grander skyscrapers.”
“China’s economy is showing signs of stagflation, economists warn…
“China’s factory activity contracted more than expected in October, shrinking for a second month, an official survey released on Sunday showed. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for October came in at 49.2, falling below the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction.”
“[US] Wheat Prices Climb, as Elevated Fertilizer Prices Persist.
“…wheat stocks as of September 1 this year were the lowest for that date since 2007. Stocks this year are especially tight based on a smaller crop… The Outlook report stated that, “It is also noteworthy that on-farm stocks are estimated at the lowest level since 1963.””
“The U.S. Oil Supply Is Still Out Of Balance…
“…loss of supply and recovery of demand is the biggest reason we have $80/bbl oil today when it was only $60/bbl just before the pandemic… it can take months at a minimum for new drilling activity to turn into oil production.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-supply-still-balance-150000445.html
“Biden urges G20 leaders to increase energy production as coal surges, oil crunch continues.
“A senior Biden administration official said during a press briefing Friday that Biden will ask foreign leaders to ramp up their energy production. “It’s a delicate time in the global economy,” the official said. “And what’s important is that global energy supplies keep up with global demand.”
“Energy-consuming nations consider response if OPEC doesn’t boost oil output…
“…an intense campaign is being waged to persuade OPEC+ to speed up its output increases, Bloomberg reported earlier, citing multiple diplomats and industry insiders involved in the contacts.”
“Oil Majors Won’t Come Running to Help World Facing Energy Crunch…
“Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. confirmed this week that, for the most part, they’ll spend their windfall profits on share buybacks and dividends. Capital expenditures will rise next year, but the increases come off 2021’s exceptionally low base and within frameworks established before the recent surge in fossil-fuel prices.”
“Chronic Underinvestment Could Send Energy Prices Higher For Longer.
“Thanks to a perfect mix of underinvestment and rebounding demand, energy prices are soaring. The next crunch could be caused by actual shortages of fossil fuels, just like this year’s record coal prices were caused as much by the sudden spike in demand.”
“UK Ministers fear Bulb’s collapse as energy crisis worsens.
“The UK’s seventh largest energy firm is home to 1.7 million customers, and its demise would be the biggest casualty of the energy price crisis so far.”
https://www.cityam.com/ministers-fears-bulb-energy-collapse-as-energy-crisis-worsens/
“President Emmanuel Macron has warned that an energy crisis threatens the world’s post-pandemic recovery…
““I don’t think we’re going to be able to lower prices given tensions on the demand side,” Macron said. “But what we need to avoid is to have a break in supply [and further] increases in prices…”
https://www.ft.com/content/8385f5d8-b045-46a7-a822-47a9ba09e219
“Natural gas, already in short supply in Europe this fall, began moving away from Germany on Saturday and back toward the east in an unusual reversal in a major Russian pipeline, Russian media reported…
“…the reversal is playing out against a backdrop of a politically charged explosion in gas prices in Europe and accusations that the Kremlin is restricting gas supplies for political purposes.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/30/world/europe/russia-gas-pipeline-nordstream-putin.html
“Fertilizer in Europe is poised to get even pricier, adding to concerns that bigger production costs for food could add to inflation.
“A gauge of western European prices for ammonia, used to make nitrogen fertilizer, surged to a 13-year high to $910 a metric ton.”
“Antamina mine in Peru says halts operations due to protests.
“Peru’s Antamina copper and zinc mine, part-owned by Glencore and BHP Billiton, said on Sunday it had suspended operations due to roadblocks established by demonstrators who say the mine has not lived up to its commitments to support local communities.”
“Marginalised Ivorians lament ‘curse’ of oil.
“On the petroleum-rich coastline of Jacqueville, about 100 kilometres (60 miles) from Ivory Coast’s economic hub of Abidjan, locals say they have yet to benefit from a decades-old bonanza.”
https://www.africanews.com/2021/11/01/marginalised-ivorians-lament-curse-of-oil/
“Control of Johannesburg in balance as South Africa goes to polls…
“Power outages, potholed roads and water shortages so frequent that hospitals are turning to boreholes have all become part of daily life in Johannesburg. Homelessness is now so high that many without shelter sleep each night in cemeteries.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9dd43e83-13fe-4fe9-9df5-cf89dbdbd461
“Will the ailing Turkish economy bring Erdogan down?
“Erdogan is facing growing warning signals that his idiosyncratic approach to running Turkey’s $765bn economy is not working. While economic growth looks good on paper, it has not translated into jobs. Inflation reached almost 20 per cent in September, and the currency is losing value.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0563fbba-9fc7-4779-a6a5-bd013293661d
“Syrians face deportation from Turkey after posting videos of themselves eating bananas.
“Row escalates over video trend which began when Syrian refugees were accused of enjoying a more affluent lifestyle than Turks.”
“Four Gulf states including UAE pull diplomats from Beirut…
“The diplomatic row, which has also seen Riyadh suspend imports from Lebanon and both Kuwait and Bahrain expel Lebanese envoys, is another blow to a country already in the grip of crippling political and economic crises.”
“Three days could expose new global crisis – rising inflation could trigger interest rate hikes in Australia, US and England.
“… the looming decisions in Australia, the US and England this week are just three of the most noteworthy, with the central banks of a string of other nations also meeting to make their own interest rate moves.”
“Monetary authorities are in a bind. If they reduce liquidity now and raise interest rates, they will throttle an economy which is only hesitantly recovering from the biggest downtime since the 1930s Great Depression.
“If they don’t, markets will interpret such inaction as wilful neglect of its duty to price stability. Investors will then take inflation as a given and may start selling bonds and currencies at random, thereby forcing interest rates up in panic.”
“Hyperinflation Risks Are Rising…
“If it becomes clear among the public that policymakers will run large fiscal deficits indefinitely and print the difference, a collapse in the demand for money cannot be ruled out.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463952-hyperinflation-risks-are-rising
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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