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While the news about the energy crisis focuses in on Europe right now, the truth is that this is rapidly becoming a global crisis impacting global markets

The stark reality is that there will be no quick fixes from here, for the simple fact that none are available… winter is coming, and potential energy disaster is coming with it.

[Apologies for the stupid picture – I couldn’t resist.]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2021/10/03/winter-is-coming-can-energy-catastrophe-be-averted/


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Surging natural gas prices, a cold winter, and reopening of international airline travel could push oil prices to $100 per barrel and trigger the next economic crisis, Bank of America says

“…oil potentially soaring to $100 could be the trigger to a global crisis due to high inflationary pressure… BofA is bullish on oil not only in the near term, but in the longer term as well, due to the chronic underinvestment in new supply…”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Bank-Of-America-Energy-Crunch-Could-Lead-To-100-Oil-And-Economic-Crisis.html


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US shale drillers cannot contain oil price rise, Pioneer boss says.

“US oil producers are not able to increase supply to tame soaring crude prices that remain “under Opec control”, according to the shale patch’s biggest operator.”

https://www.ft.com/content/c21eb656-8d09-45ce-a13a-7d8419426b05


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Global economy facing bout of stagflation as soaring prices and chaos in supply chains and energy market wreak havoc for businesses

“‘Year to date, tin prices are up 74 per cent, gasoline prices are up 60 per cent, coffee is up 52 per cent, aluminium up 47 per cent, and the list goes on. The energy crisis is already of historic proportions, with gas prices in Italy up 385pc year-to-date.”

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10050297/Global-economy-facing-bout-stagflation.html


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Silicon’s 300% surge throws another price shock at the world.

“A metal made from the second-most abundant element on Earth has become scarce, threatening everything from car parts to computer chips and throwing up another hurdle for the world economy.”

https://www.mining.com/web/silicons-300-surge-throws-another-price-shock-at-the-world/


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Coal Surges to Record as Global Scramble for Energy Accelerates.

“High-quality thermal coal loaded on ships at Newcastle port in Australia surged to $203.20 a ton, breaking the previous record set in July 2008.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-01/coal-surges-to-record-as-global-scramble-for-energy-accelerates


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China Relaxes Coal Mine Safety Efforts on Electricity Crisis…

“The National Development and Reform Commission told miners at a meeting on Thursday that accidents will no longer result in the shutdown of nearby mines for safety inspections…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/china-relaxes-coal-mine-safety-efforts-on-electricity-crisis?srnd=economics-vp


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China’s power crisis shocks Australia’s wool industry. Price of farm inputs also tipped to rise… for Australian farmers, it could lead to fertiliser and glyphosate prices going even higher

“Australian Council of Wool Exporters president Josh Lamb [aptly named!] said Chinese buyers expected potential shutdowns for up to six months.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-02/china-power-restriction-shocks-wool-industry/100506408


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According to India’s power ministry, the 135 thermal power plants of Asia’s third-largest economy had an average of just four days of coal stocks as of Friday

“The shortage now raises the prospect of imminent, large-scale power cuts, higher consumer electricity prices… in an economy where coal-fired plants now account for around 66 per cent of power generation.”

https://www.ft.com/content/a3ca4eaa-9ecc-4a81-ad53-4902fae4bd61


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From fast food to farming, Covid-19 has accelerated the rise of the worker robots. This in turn will put more jobs at risk and makes the need to reframe society ever more urgent…

“As British farms confront the absence of seasonal workers who once flooded in from eastern Europe, interest in agricultural robots is growing.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/oct/02/robots-stealing-jobs-labour-shortages-artificial-intelligence-covid


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Robots Take Over Italy’s Vineyards as Wineries Struggle With Covid-19 Worker Shortages.

“Italian winemakers have increasingly relied on migrant workers for the autumn harvest, but travel restrictions and soaring wage costs are pushing many to turn to machines.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/robots-take-over-italys-vineyards-as-wineries-struggle-with-covid-19-worker-shortages-11633260841


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Venezuela to subtract six zeros from currency, second overhaul in three years.

“Venezuela on Friday will launch its second monetary overhaul in three years by cutting six zeros from the bolivar currency in response to hyperinflation, simplifying accounting but doing little to ease the South American nation’s economic crisis.”

https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/02/us-venezuela-economy


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Puerto Rico is on the brink of a power supply crisis. Protesters demand answers.

““It’s not normal to have blackouts, it’s not normal that our students cannot study properly, it’s not normal to have to live with generators,” a community activist said.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-brink-power-supply-crisis-protesters-demand-answers-rcna2508


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Nigeria: Protests Rock Abuja on Independence Day Celebration…

“They demanded the resignation of the president for enacting anti-people policies and for failing to provide the appropriate response to the country at the time it was facing unprecedented security challenges… The policemen led by ASP Altine Daniel, released several canisters of tear gas to disperse the protesters.”

https://allafrica.com/stories/202110020058.html


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Unrest in Sudan: Khartoum Protest Broken Up By Force…

“Sudanese security forces dispersed a protest by residents of Khartoum on Thursday, underscoring strains in the relationship between the civilian and military factions of the country’s post-revolution transitional government.”

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/unrest-sudan-khartoum-protest-broken-force-194826


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Turkish company cuts off electricity supply to Lebanon.

“The move by Turkish company Karpowership, which has provided electricity for the past eight years, was expected. It had said earlier that Lebanon’s state power company owes Karpowership overdue payments in excess of $100 million.”

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkish-company-cuts-off-electricity-supply-to-lebanon


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Iraqis march in Baghdad to mark protests anniversary.

“Iraqis commemorate the victims of a crackdown against protesters demanding an overhaul of Iraq’s ruling class, days before a new parliamentary vote.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/1/iraqis-march-in-baghdad-to-mark-protests-anniversary


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Elderly in Iran’s Kurdistan scrape by during financial crisis, pandemic…

“Iran, already suffering under American sanctions, is one of the nations hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the country’s elderly, who number around 8 million people, were left struggling with little financial support and in constant fear of the virus.”

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/031020211


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Kyrgyzstan turns off lights to prepare for crisis… There will be no escaping discontent this winter…

“Shop windows will go dark, as will advertising hoardings. Routine inspections are being organized to ensure compliance. The blackout will affect streets too, plunging large sections of the capital, Bishkek, into obscurity.”

https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-turns-off-lights-to-prepare-for-crisis


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Kabul faces blackout as Taliban falters on electricity bills payment.

“Ahead of the harsh winter season in Afghanistan, the country’s capital city Kabul could dive into darkness due to non-payment of dues of Central Asian electricity suppliers by new Taliban rulers.”

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/kabul-faces-blackout-as-taliban-falters-on-electricity-bills-payment-121100400225_1.html


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A Deep Freeze This Winter Hinges on La Nina and the Polar Vortex.

With the energy crunch worsening, scientists hunt for insights into how low the Northern Hemisphere’s temps will go.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-01/how-cold-will-winter-2021-2022-get-la-nina-polar-vortex-are-signs-to-watch


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‘A perfect storm’: supply chain crisis could blow world economy off course.

“From Liverpool to LA, shortages of energy, labour and transport are threatening recovery from Covid… economists believe central banks might have to move more quickly to raise interest rates if inflation takes hold across the developed world.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/02/supply-chain-world-economy-energy-labour-transport-covid


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Buckle up because global markets are in for a bumpy ride in the days and months ahead… Problems… are emerging on a number of fronts. And it’s not just the toll the Delta variant is exacting on growth.

“In no real order, they are as follows: the disruption to global trade from shipping constraints; a rapidly emerging energy crisis; serious concerns about China’s property market and its entire growth model; and an escalating dispute within the US Congress that threatens to destabilise the global economy.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/buckle-up-global-markets-are-in-for-a-bumpy-ride-in-months-ahead/100511020


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.

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