Here’s an Inconvenient Truth: The [US] Growth Slowdown Goes Beyond the Delta Variant.
“Everyone knew that economic growth was going to slow from the second quarter. But it wasn’t supposed to happen so soon—or so sharply. The Covid-19 Delta variant is the obvious and convenient explanation, but it’s an incomplete one.”
The [US] economic recovery has a dirty secret… Joblessness is much higher than economic data would suggest.
“The data isn’t cooked or intentionally skewed. Instead, it boils down to the fact that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ economic data isn’t well-suited to measure a labor market during a pandemic.”
Inflation watch: US producer prices surge to another record.
“Friday brought more confirmation of rising inflation after the United States Department of Labor said that its Producer Price Index (PPI) – which measures prices that businesses fetch for the goods and services they sell – jumped 8.3 percent in August yoy…”
[UK] Supermarkets could face ‘permanent shortages’, expert warns.
“The days of UK consumers being able to expect to pick up nearly whatever product they want, whenever they want from supermarket shelves are over, an industry expert has warned.”
Europe’s Power Crunch Deepens as Ireland Warns of Blackout Risk: U.K. Electricity prices surged to 2,300 pounds ($3,180) a megawatt-hour as Ireland warned of a power shortfall that could lead to blackouts and the cost of power broke records in Spain, Germany and France.
“Europe is facing an energy crunch as supplies of natural gas remain below what’s needed to satisfy demand.
Norway grapples with temptation of a ‘mini Brexit’… Norway is not a member of the EU but it is closely linked to the bloc through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement.
“The deal gives Norway access to the common market in exchange for the adoption of most European directives. Both the Centre Party and the Socialist Left… have called for the marriage of convenience to be dissolved.”
EU Austerity Battle Ramps Up as France Announces New Spending…
“Europe is far from united. On the same day France said its budget would focus on driving economic growth rather than tax hikes, eight EU nations led by Austria wrote a letter in support of cutting debt levels.”
COVID: Thousands protest nightlife ban in the Netherlands.
“Organizers claim as many as 150,000 people showed up to the “Unmute Us” protests, calling for the lifting of coronavirus restrictions that forced music venues to shut down.”
Anti COVID vaccine protesters clash with police in Greece.
“Greek police fired tear gas and water canon on Saturday to break up a demonstration of thousands of people protesting against mandatory coronavirus vaccinations.”
Evergrande investors face 75% hit as company edges closer to restructure.
“The troubled Chinese property group Evergrande has edged closer to a government-engineered restructuring which could see bondholders take huge losses as Beijing’s price for saving millions of homeowners from financial ruin.”
China’s zero-Covid stance could worsen debt problems for companies.
“China’s zero-Covid approach could worsen the debt situation of the country’s companies, some of which are already in financial distress, says ratings giant S&P Global Ratings.”
Cracks in China’s Growth Put Risk-Market Rally on Shaky Ground.
“Fissures in the Chinese recovery are replacing taper-tantrum jitters as the lurking threat to the emerging-market rally. Developing-nation currencies are increasingly vulnerable to signs of weakness in China…”
With Economies on the Brink, Southeast Asia Chooses to Reopen.
“Even as they struggle with one of the world’s worst Covid-19 outbreaks, nations across Southeast Asia are slowly realizing that they can no longer afford the economy-crippling restrictions needed to squash it.”
The spectre of high inflation returns to haunt Latin America…
“Inflation causes particular alarm in Latin America because of the region’s long history of price instability…“
“…particularly in the 1970s and 1980s.”
Argentina’s Crazy Primaries Are Looking Dangerous For President Fernández’s Peronists.
“A sustained economic crisis marked by consistent stagflation turbocharged with a global pandemic has pushed millions into poverty, as massive slums continue to grow accelerating problems like crime, drug-trafficking and addiction, and a chronic lack of education and jobs…”
Poverty in Colombia…
“According to a study by the Red de Ciudades Como Vamos, the economic crisis that followed the coronavirus pandemic had a devastating impact on poverty in all Colombia’s provincial capitals.”
Tunisia president indicates plans to amend constitution.
“Tunisia’s President Kais Saied has indicated plans to change the country’s constitution, seven weeks after he seized power in moves his opponents called a coup.”
Sri Lanka central bank chief steps down as reserve crisis deepens.
“Sri Lanka’s central bank chief to step down amid dwindling foreign exchange reserves, looming debt repayments…“
“…and the economic fallout of an extended COVID-19 lockdown.”
Explainer: How bad is the crisis in Lebanon?
“Lebanon’s financial meltdown has swiftly worsened in the last month, with much of the country crippled by fuel shortages that have ignited country-wide security incidents.”
Food price inflation heaps pressure on poorer countries – Central banks face difficult monetary policy trade-off between taming increases and risking recovery…“
“Prices have risen 40 per cent over the past 15 months, according to the latest data from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, the biggest gain since surging food prices spurred the unrest of the Arab Spring in 2010-11.”
Supply chain issues add to stagflationary winds.
“Rather than a one-off dynamic, the global economy is experiencing waves of supply disruptions suggesting that longer-term forces are also in play… all this translates into stagflationary winds for the global economy that are unfamiliar to those that did not live through the 1970s.”
Supply chain crisis will leave permanent scar, UPS warns.
“The supply chain crisis unleashed by the pandemic will inflict lasting damage on the globalisation driven by multinationals, according to a top executive at UPS, one of the world’s largest delivery companies.”
The World’s Shippers Are Earning the Most Money Since 2008…
“This boom’s causes are twofold — an economic reopening after Covid that has spurred surging demand for goods and raw materials. Alongside that, the virus continues to cause disruption in global supply chains, choking up ports and delaying vessels, all of which is limiting how many are available to haul goods across oceans.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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