“Attacks on Gulf shipping leave the global economy vulnerable…
“Last week, an oil tanker traveling through the Gulf of Oman was struck by a suspected kamikaze drone, killing two crew members. And yesterday, several vessels traveling through the nearby Strait of Hormuz reported sudden emergencies, while another was boarded by operatives suspected of being Iranian troops. A terrible situation for all affected, to be sure. But the rest of us should be concerned too…
“Yesterday, another tanker, the Panama-flagged Asphalt Princess, was reported to have been boarded by armed men, thought to be Iranian operatives, in the Strait of Hormuz, while other cargo ships also reported sudden steering problems…
“The fact that a Covid-19 outbreak at a Chinese port could bring Christmas shopping to a screeching halt should worry everyone involved in the globalized economy — meaning every one of us. It also highlights the risks associated with Israel and Iran’s potential proxy war involving cargo vessels.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/gulf-shipping-attacks-leave-global-economy-vulnerable-trade/
“[US] Private companies added 330,000 jobs in July, according to ADP, far short of the 653,000 estimate…
“Job creation at private companies tumbled in July as fears mounted over the spreading Covid-19 delta variant, payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/04/private-companies-added-330000-jobs-in-july-according-to-adp-far-short-of-the-653000-estimate.html
“US policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned about the rising price of housing for both homeowners and renters, as the broadest global house price boom for at least two decades drives up living costs…
““It has never been like this,” said Michael Jones, a real estate agent at Coldwell Banker Realty with more than 20 years’ experience in central Ohio. “It’s unprecedented.””
https://www.ft.com/content/36cdd5d2-18af-4745-88e8-b101fd4cab3f
“Bank of England Rings Alarm Bell for Sunak That Rock-Bottom Rates May Rise…
“The central bank’s announcement on Thursday that officials will need to tighten monetary policy modestly in coming years points toward a slow-burning headache for the British finance minister.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/sunak-s-rock-bottom-u-k-borrowing-gets-warning-bell-from-boe
“The UK jobs market continues to be plagued by severe worker shortages caused by the “pingdemic” and intense job insecurity, according to new figures published today.
“KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation research shows candidate volumes for unfilled jobs fell at the second fastest on record rate in July since the organisations started tracking the figures.”
https://www.cityam.com/pingdemic-plagues-uk-jobs-market/
“German car sales slump in July – 25% fewer new cars than a year ago registered in Europe’s largest market…
““The hoped for market recovery is still far off,” said Peter Fuss, a partner at EY “…the uncertainty is still large, particularly in light of the increasing case numbers and the sluggish vaccination campaign.””
https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/german-car-sales-slump-in-july.891376
“What happens when investors lose faith in Beijing? It could take China years to win back confidence after recent state intervention in tech…
“Nearly two decades ago, when I first visited China, the government was keen to demonstrate its care for shareholders and their rights. It is deeply troubling if that policy is being abandoned. As the Asian crisis demonstrated, it takes years to win back investors’ confidence.”
https://www.ft.com/content/539472f0-ce11-43b5-943a-fd53d282baf0
“Japanese firms slashed this year’s summer bonuses by the most since the 2009 global financial crisis, a survey showed on Thursday, underscoring the damage brought by the coronavirus pandemic and clouding the outlook for already weak consumption.
“The survey adds more gloom to the world’s third-largest economy…”
https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-bonus/japanese-firms-cut-summer-bonuses-by-most-since-lehman-crisis-survey-idUSL4N2PC272
“As Asian Economies Stall, World Braces for Fallout… Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other countries in the region are being forced to respond to the surging coronavirus caseloads with factory shutdowns and stricter lockdown and social distancing rules.
“The interconnectedness of the region’s economy means that shutdowns in one country have knock-on effects in others…”
https://www.voanews.com/economy-business/asian-economies-stall-world-braces-fallout
“Opposition MPs face arrest: Fiji’s climate of fear deepens in time of Covid crisis… As Fiji struggles with an unprecedented health and economic crisis, the country’s already limited democratic space is being choked off.
“Opposition MPs routinely face arrest for criticising legislation before parliament, and the international response has been found lacking.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/opposition-mps-face-arrest-fijis-climate-of-fear-deepens-in-time-of-covid-crisis/DOE6THNI2DTQ3Q7LIKOIH3QQAE/
“One week after taking office, having won election by the thinnest margin imaginable, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo finds himself “between the sword and the wall,” to use the Spanish expression, as a result of the country’s complex political realities, made worse by his early stumbles.
“Peruvians are watching anxiously, uncertain about what direction he will try to take the country and how far he will get in his efforts.”
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29859/for-peru-politics-as-rollercoaster-ride-continues-under-castillo
“Argentina’s local debt rollover flops as investors eye midterms.
“Investors sent a warning message to Argentina’s Treasury on Tuesday night – don’t expect us to finance the government’s increased spending ahead of November’s midterm elections unless interest rates go up.”
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentinas-local-debt-rollover-flops-as-investors-eye-midterms.phtml
“Guiana Dolphins Are Unintended Victims of Venezuela’s Economic Crisis…
“Although Guiana dolphin meat has historically been eaten in Venezuela—served fried, stewed, or inside pastry balls—those meals have typically been the result of incidental catch. Yet as the country has sunk into a deep economic crisis over the past decade, Guiana dolphins are increasingly falling victim to by-catch and intentional hunting.”
https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/guiana-dolphins-are-unintended-victims-of-venezuelas-economic-crisis/
“Ranks of Mexican poor swell to reach nearly half the population…
“Some 3.8 million more Mexicans fell below the official poverty line in 2020 to reach a total of nearly 56 million, compared with the end of 2018 when President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office on a pledge to prioritize the needs of the poor.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ranks-mexican-poor-swell-reach-nearly-half-population-2021-08-05/
“Save the Children is deeply concerned to find that an estimated 2.3 million children and youth, including some 700,000 children under five1, are going hungry in North-East Nigeria.
“A recent UN report found that 4.4 million people in the area are facing food shortages as attacks by militants are forcing farmers from their lands.”
https://www.africanews.com/2021/08/05/millions-of-children-going-hungry-in-north-east-nigeria-as-attacks-devastate-lives-save-the-children/
“Amid Economic Collapse, Zambians Head to the Polls.
“Zambians head to the polls on 12 August amid mounting economic challenges, reports of election-related political violence and COVID-19. The country is reeling from colossal debt, corruption, runaway inflation and a weakening currency.”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202108040463.html
“Today, Wednesday, the Central Bank of Yemen approved a new regulation to regulate the activity of banking companies, in the wake of the historic collapse of the Yemeni riyal, recording 1,017 riyals per dollar. in unofficial transactions in the temporary capital, Aden…
“The Central Bank of Yemen has confirmed its intention to take strict measures against foreign exchange companies and structures…”
https://asumetech.com/historic-collapse-of-the-yemeni-riyal-the-centrale-approves-a-new-regulation-for-banking-companies/
“Beirut Port Explosion Fuels Lebanon’s Collapse: ‘May God Save the Country’…
“Power outages have become so frequent that restaurants time their hours to the schedule of electricity from private generators. Brawls have erupted in supermarkets as shoppers rush to buy bread, sugar, and cooking oil before they run out or hyperinflation topping 400% for food puts the prices out of reach. Medical professionals have fled…”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lebanons-economy-still-reeling-from-beirut-port-explosion-falls-off-a-cliff-11628089525
“Shortages, sanctions, protests and pandemic: Daunting challenges await Iran’s new president.
“Abroad, Iran is acutely isolated and locked in a spreading conflict with Israel, including at sea. Negotiations with the United States and other world powers to revive a nuclear deal are at a standstill.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-raisi-protests-khuzestan-inauguration/2021/08/05/2fb4593a-f55a-11eb-a636-18cac59a98dc_story.html
“Afghan economy on verge of collapse as US troops depart. As the U.S. military drawdown in Afghanistan nears completion, concerns are growing over the country’s fledgling economy and weakening security.
“Nowhere is the impact of the troop withdrawal more apparent than in the local economies of cities that profited from trade associated with nearby U.S. military bases, such as Bagram and Kabul.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Afghan-economy-on-verge-of-collapse-as-US-troops-depart2
“Two years of Kashmir unrest, political void and a sinking economy… Disputed region marks second anniversary of losing special status…
“Perhaps the worst impact of the 2019 decision has been on the region’s economy, which traders and industrialists say has collapsed, with thousands of job losses and rising unemployment.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/5/kashmir-special-status-india-two-years-human-rights-economy
“Worst-Case Scenario: Firms wrestle with supply bottlenecks.
“Importers are contending with a perfect storm of supply trouble — rising prices, overwhelmed ports, a shortage of ships, trains, trucks — that is expected to last into 2022.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worstcase-scenario-firms-wrestle-with-supply-bottlenecks-china-donald-trump-mckinsey-target-washington-b1897236.html
“The flagging of stagflation [by bond markets] – high-inflation coupled with low growth – is puzzling…
“Even Fed boss Jerome Powell admitted the challenges of decoding what bond markets say. Technical factors are “where you put things that you can’t quite explain,” Powell said recently.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-bonds-yields/analysis-stagflation-recession-bond-market-messages-puzzle-investors-idUSL8N2PB78R
“What the world’s rising pile of negative-yielding debt means for U.S. Treasurys.
“…inflation worries have given way to an economic growth scare, partly due to the prevalence of the delta variant of the coronavirus, which is getting some of the blame for the renewed fall in longer-term yields.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-worlds-rising-pile-of-negative-yielding-debt-means-for-u-s-treasurys-11628189255
“The consensus priced into today’s market calls for growth and inflation to continue running hot. However, the bond market is fading the reflation consensus – pricing in an imminent bout of deflation…
“Today’s divergence between bonds and the rest of the market paints an eerily similar picture to June of 2008.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445219-the-smart-money-is-betting-on-a-market-meltdown
“Global debt has exceeded all historical levels…
“Last year global government debt has reached its highest level since World War II, many times higher than annual global economic output, and on 17th of February 2021, the Institute of International Finance announced that by the end of 2020 it amounted to 281 trillion US dollars (3) or 355% of the global GDP.
“This figure does not even include this years announcements of public borrowings.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/global_debt_has_exceeded_all_historical_levels/
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back over the weekend with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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