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As the pandemic subsides, here comes the crisis… When it comes to the economics of COVID-19, the worst symptoms may not appear until the virus has gone into remission…

Civil unrest has increased in the wake of other recent pandemics, a recent International Monetary Fund Analysis found, peaking an average of two years after the health threat passes.”

[47 jurisdictions around the world were already experiencing significant social unrest in 2019 before the pandemic started].

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-pandemic-crisis-economic-inequality/


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It’s 1979 again but with quadruple the debt burden. The Fed prays that inflation will fix itself and the mess will prove ‘transitory’ but things keep getting worse

“The Biden Administration’s attempt to shove $5 trillion in demand through America’s sclerotic supply chains has produced simultaneously a demand-side shock (sudden increase of spending power) and a supply-side shock (US firms can’t produce or ship goods on order).”

https://asiatimes.com/2021/06/its-1979-again-but-with-quadruple-the-debt-burden/


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UK Banks battle it out in mortgage price war.

The soaraway housing market rekindles memories of 2008 when a lending spree triggered the worst financial crisis for decades.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/02/banks-battle-mortgage-price-war/


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Global Economy Rebounding, Faces Multiple Threats

“The global economic rebound from the pandemic has picked up speed but remains uneven across countries and faces multiple headwinds. Most worrisome: the lack of vaccines in poorer nations, which could lead to new virus variants and more stop-and-go lockdowns.”

https://businessjournaldaily.com/forecast-global-economy-rebounding-faces-multiple-threats/


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Vietnam’s ‘very dangerous’ new hybrid variant may be fueling its worst outbreak so far

“Vietnam’s plight follows a now familiar pattern of Covid-19 surges across Asia – most alarmingly in countries like Singapore, Laos, Thailand and Taiwan that were praised for beating the virus in 2020, only to be caught out by a global vaccine shortage as new variants ricocheted back from coronavirus hotspots.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/01/vietnams-new-covid-19-hybrid-variant-replicating-quickly/


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Malaysia protests ‘suspicious’ Chinese air force activity over South China Sea.

“The foreign ministry of Malaysia has said it would summon China’s envoy to explain an “intrusion” by 16 air force planes into its airspace, after the south-east Asian country’s military detected “suspicious” activity over the South China Sea.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/02/malaysia-protests-suspicious-chinese-air-force-activity-over-south-china-sea


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While China’s borders remain closed, the global economy suffers… China’s current border policy is having a cumulative long-term effect across the global economy…

The problem is that opening the borders is hard to reconcile with Chinese people’s expectations of zero Covid cases.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/01/china-borders-covid-global-economy-winter-olympics


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Why China is reining in the renminbi.

On Monday, China’s central bank yanked a policy lever it hasn’t touched since the global financial crisis, signaling Beijing’s determination to rein in a currency rally that has seen the renminbi surge to its strongest level against the dollar in three years.”

https://fortune.com/2021/06/01/china-renminbi-pboc-reserve-requirement-exchange-rate-us-dollar/


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Nigeria’s crude oil export revenues slumped by as much as 98 percent from March to April this year because of movements in the price of gasoline…

“The oil and gas industry in Africa’s largest oil producer accounts for… as much as 86 percent of total export revenues.”

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nigerias-Oil-Revenues-Slump-98-In-April.html


Total global revenues from oil and gas taxes are set to approach the $1-trillion mark in 2021, but unlike in pre-COVID times, the world will never again see such high revenues from oil and gas, Rystad Energy said in an analysis on Wednesday.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Petrostates-Will-Never-Again-Get-1-Trillion-In-Oil-And-Gas-Tax-Revenue.html


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Colombia extends border closure with Venezuela… in recent months, the border has… been the site of violent clashes between the Venezuelan army and armed groups operating in Colombia…

Prior to the pandemic, hundreds of Venezuelans used to cross into Colombia daily to buy food, medicine and supplies that are lacking in Venezuela, a nation suffering from poverty and hyperinflation.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/1/colombia-extends-border-closure-with-venezuela-until-sept-1


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Brazilians bang pots in protest as another 2,500 die of COVID-19.

“Pot-banging protests erupted across several cities in Brazil on Wednesday evening as President Jair Bolsonaro addressed the nation, just days after protestors took to the streets across the country over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic…”

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-registers-almost-100000-new-covid-19-cases-wednesday-2021-05-31/


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Argentina navigates pandemic with 60% of children in poverty

“High inflation and Covid-19 restrictions have curbed an economic rebound, after the pandemic dealt a critical blow to Argentina’s economy, which was already going through a now three-year-long recession.”

https://www.laprensalatina.com/argentina-navigates-pandemic-with-60-of-children-in-poverty/


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Turkish lira crashes to record low on Erdogan’s call for rate cut

“Erdogan’s frequent calls for lower borrowing costs and his abrupt removal of three central bank chiefs in less than two years has eroded Turkey’s monetary credibility and left it more vulnerable to high inflation and financial crisis.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/2/turkish-lira-crashes-to-record-low-on-erdogans-call-for-rate-cut


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Eight killed in protests against Kurdish-led forces in northern Syrian city

“The protests took a violent turn when hundreds of demonstrators marched near checkpoints around the city a day after one civilian was killed in protests that swept the area demanding the end of Kurdish minority rule over a mainly Arab tribal population.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eight-killed-protests-against-kurdish-led-forces-northern-syrian-city-2021-06-01/


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World Bank: Lebanon’s crisis among world’s worst since 1850s.

“Lebanon’s severe economic and financial crisis is likely to rank as one of the worst the world has seen in more than 150 years, the World Bank said in a report released Tuesday.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-bank-lebanons-crisis-among-worlds-worst-since-1850s-lebanon-world-bank-beirut-hassan-diab-cabinet-b1857504.html


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Lebanon is a ticking time bomb the world cannot afford to ignore

“Lebanon… hosts hundreds of thousands of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. If the state collapses, these refugees could not return to their original homes in Syria and Palestine; rather, they would likely head towards Europe.”

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/lebanon-israel-palestine-world-leaders-cannot-ignore


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Pandemic plunges 100 million more workers into poverty: UN… the labour market crisis created by the pandemic was far from over, the UN’s International Labour Organization warned in a report.

Employment was not expected to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 at the earliest, it said.”

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210602-pandemic-plunges-100-mn-more-workers-into-poverty-un


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The great private jet shortage? …used cars are currently mooning because of a combination of pent-up demand and supply-chain disruption.

“And it turns out that automobiles aren’t the only used vehicles that are in short supply: the number of second-hand private jets for sale is also at an all-time low.”

https://www.ft.com/content/d0ae8b43-58e5-4f6a-8cd5-b9863c885719


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How the Covid shock has radicalised generation Z

“Like their predecessors in the uprisings that followed the 2008 crisis, this generation of young people is ready to draw systemic conclusions from the way political elites have handled the pandemic. They know they will be paying higher taxes, carrying bigger personal debts and facing more uncertainty than any generation since the second world war.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/02/how-the-covid-shock-has-radicalised-generation-z


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COVID-19 trauma has changed economics — maybe forever

In 2020, the doctrine of austerity went into rapid retreat all over the world… The IMF noted concerns about rising debt levels but said a bigger risk was that governments would curtail their spending too soon.”

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/06/01/business/covid-19-trauma-economics-changed/


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Currency debasement – lessons from Weimar Germany

“…fears over the impact of excessive state intervention have resurfaced, thanks to the support measures introduced following last year’s virus outbreak… Weimar Germany’s convulsions in the interwar years provide a sobering historical perspective for those in fear of hyperinflation and dollar collapse.”

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/education/2021/06/01/currency-debasement-lessons-from-weimar-germany/


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.

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