“Margin debt and leverage are flashing red, again.
“Much of the froth in US markets is being driven by unusual liquidity flows that may reverse soon…
“Data collected by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority shows that total margin debt across Wall Street hit $822bn by the end of March — *after* Archegos had failed.
“That was almost double the $479bn level of this time last year and far more than the around $400bn peak that margin debt reached in 2007, just before the financial crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ac7cfe19-54a5-4e9a-b059-bbce3e78e354
“Affluent Americans Rush to Retire in New ‘Life-Is-Short’ Mindset.
“The unprecedented surge in shares and home values during an economic crisis is easing the retirement path for those who have savings and investments.”
“European economies have lapsed into recession again as lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting measures further suppress economic activity.
“With voters’ patience running thin, this might be the last chance establishment governments have to avoid a populist surge.”
“Germany battles with a protracted slump as woes keep mounting.
“Lingering lockdowns and computer chip supply problems for its crucial car industry will prolong the Covid pain in Europe’s largest economy.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/30/germany-battles-protracted-slump-woes-keep-mounting/
“China’s economic growth may have ‘peaked’, will ‘wane’ for rest of 2021 after April sentiment slowdown.
“China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) dropped in April, but continued to show growth in the economy.”
“China’s Hidden Bank Assets Are Emerging from the Shadows. Lenders are being pushed to recognize $1.3 trillion of products sold in racier times. That could prove costly.”
“India COVID crisis: four reasons it will derail the world economy…
“If the leading powers fail to do everything they can to help out, India’s crisis will become a world crisis in short order, not only for health but also for the economy.”
https://theconversation.com/india-covid-crisis-four-reasons-it-will-derail-the-world-economy-160024
“India’s Covid Crisis Could Reach You, Too.
“Should the overstretched Indian healthcare system collapse, it will trigger a humanitarian crisis that would set back the global fight against the coronavirus and reshape the geopolitical map of Asia.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-crisis-could-reach-you-too-11619713949
“India’s covid crisis could result in oil glut.
“Worsening COVID outbreak is set to disturb the nearly balanced global oil market, which will show a surplus of oil supply of as much as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next month amid a sizeable loss of demand from the world’s third-largest oil importer, Rystad Energy says.”
“India’s deepening water crisis at the heart of farm protests.
“At the heart of India’s farm protests and decades-old agrarian crisis is a policy conundrum: India has been subsidizing the cultivation of rice in the north, but these are thirsty crops that have dramatically lowered the groundwater table.”
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/india-s-deepening-water-crisis-at-the-heart-of-farm-protests-1.5406882
“India Must Settle the Teesta River Dispute With Bangladesh for Lasting Gains.
“The “Golden Era” in India-Bangladesh relations must also lead to resolution of the most vexing issue between the two.”
“At least 31 people have been killed, scores injured and 10,000 evacuated after a water dispute led to some of the worst clashes in years on a disputed Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border.
“Clashes started on Wednesday when people from both sides hurled stones at each other after surveillance cameras were installed at a water facility.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56940011
“Sri Lanka declares worst economic downturn in 73 years.
“Sri Lanka announced Friday that its economy shrank 3.6 percent last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, making it the worst downturn since independence from Britain in 1948.”
““Worst economic crisis” in Tonga’s history.
“The economies of the Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa, and Tonga will continue to decline in 2021. “The COVID-19 pandemic is the worst economic crisis in the history of these countries,” said economist James Webb. “While lives have been saved, livelihoods have been lost.””
https://matangitonga.to/2021/04/30/worst-economic-crisis-tongas-history
“Brazil registers record 14.4 million unemployed.
“Pandemic-battered Brazil registered a record 14.4 million unemployed workers in the three-month period to February 2021, up two million from the year before, officials said Friday.”
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/brazil-registers-record-144-million-unemployed.phtml
“Mexico’s young workers are desperate for jobs.
“One in every six young people aged 18 to 29 in Latin America and the Caribbean has left work since the pandemic began, studies show.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/4/30/mexicos-young-workers-are-desperate-for-jobs
“South Africa’s real GDP stopped growing 14 years ago.
“Speaking at the Rotary Africa Centennial Conference, Finance Minister Mboweni said South Africa’s real GDP per capita stopped growing in 2007 and has now fallen to its 2005 level.”
“Kenya meets IMF to review policy progress on Sh255 billion.
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday started reviewing policy reforms that saw it approve $2.34 billion (Sh255 billion) facility for Kenya early this month… The fund gave Kenya a number of demands especially on fiscal and governance.”
“Tunisia to seek $4 billion IMF loan, PM says.
“Tunisia will seek a $4 billion loan programme from the International Monetary Fund in talks starting next week, Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi told Reuters on Friday, saying politicians faced a “last opportunity” to save the economy.”
“Myanmar approaching point of economic collapse: UN report.
“The turmoil following the military coup in Myanmar, coupled with the impact of COVID-19 could result in up to 25 million people – nearly half of the country’s population, living in poverty by early next year, a United Nations report said on Friday.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/04/1091002
“Tonnes of dead fish wash up on shore of polluted Lebanese lake…
“Ecological disasters are the last thing Lebanon needs as it suffers through an alarming financial collapse and the aftermath of a huge explosion that devastated Beirut port last August.”
“Starving Malagasy forced to eat leaves, locusts for survival.
“Near-total disappearance of food sources has created a ‘full-blown nutrition emergency’ in southern Madagascar, World Food Programme warns.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/30/famine-looms-in-southern-madagascar-uns-food-agency-says
“Soaring timber prices are just one more sign that inflation is on the way.
“The price of lumber has risen by more than 230% since the onset of the coronavirus crisis and timber is now trading at all time highs of around US$1,188 per thousand board feet.”
“Inflation tests pricing power of global brands.
“Some of the world’s biggest consumer goods makers are pushing up prices for branded goods, from nappies to veggie burgers, testing their ability to pass on higher input costs to households.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4a30e5c4-82f2-4070-9fa7-6769aca518fc
“Global Chip Shortage Hits Apple, BMW, Ford as Crisis Worsens.
“The global chip shortage is going from bad to worse with automakers on three continents joining tech giants Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. in flagging production cuts and lost revenue from the crisis.”
“Shipping Delays and Supply Shortages to Constrain Firms All Year.
“Companies worldwide expect supply-chain constraints resulting from logistics backlogs and the global semiconductor shortage to continue for much of this year.”
“The Economic Consequences Of Bank Credit Contraction:
“As well as financing escalating government deficits, central banks face an additional problem of replacing contracting bank credit to the non-financial private sector if a slump is to be avoided.
“The problem comes at the worst possible time in the bank credit cycle, with commercial banks’ balance sheets as highly leveraged as they have ever been.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423133-economic-consequences-of-bank-credit-contraction
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back on Monday with a “Climate” thread.
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