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The likelihood of a co-ordinated global economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic has diminished as slower vaccination rollouts and a fresh wave of infections in some countries result in “sharply divergent growth prospects”, according to exclusive research for the Financial Times…

The world economy faces sharply divergent growth prospects across various regions, as prospects of a uniform swift snapback from a dismal 2020 have become clouded,” said Professor Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution.”

https://www.ft.com/content/af5f24e8-d22a-443d-94c1-ec405301000e


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Risky Borrowers [in the US] Are Falling Behind on Car Payments:

A greater share of people [in the US] with low credit scores has been falling behind on their car payments in recent months, a sign of stress among consumers whose finances have been hit hard by the pandemic.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-recovery-subprime-borrowers-car-loans-delinquent-uneven-debt-coronavirus-2021-4?r=US&IR=T


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The Fed Summarily Rejects The Possibility Of Inflation: Itself A Risky Position:

“Bond traders and investors have begun to see troubling inflationary straws in the wind. Yields on both treasury and corporate bonds have risen accordingly. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) policy makers have dismissed these investor concerns out of hand…”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2021/04/05/the-fed-summarily-rejects-the-possibility-of-inflation-itself-a-risky-position/


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Bank of Canada: Canadians Are Piling on Debt to Chase Soaring House Prices… The Bank of Canada is sounding the alarm on mortgage debt.

“….Governor Tiff Macklen said that he was concerned Canadians are stretching their finances to buy houses. Citing higher loan-to-value ratios, he said household indebtedness is on the rise.”

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-canadians-piling-debt-230007060.html


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Leaders’ appeals for calm went unnoticed on Saturday as violence erupted in loyalist parts of Northern Ireland for yet another successive night, fuelled by anger over Brexit and the policing of a formerly senior IRA figure’s funeral…

“It came hours after Stormont’s first minister, Arlene Foster, and the Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis, called for an end to the violence…”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/northern-ireland-riots-petrol-bombs-b1826546.html


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EU and UK pledge backing to Ukraine after Russian military buildup:

“The European Union and UK have pledged “unwavering” support for Ukraine’s government amid concerns of a military escalation in the east of the country or a possible new offensive against the Nato ally after recent Russian troop movements.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/eu-sounds-alarm-at-russian-troops-ukraine-border-moves


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A wave of companies across the UK and the rest of Europe are at risk of going under with new figures showing that the default rate on corporate loans has doubled.

Businesses across Europe, including the UK, face a €1.8 trillion (£1.5  trillion) wall of debt maturing in the next four years, including €290bn in 2021…”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/04/default-rate-corporate-loans-has-doubled/


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Pandemic destroys hopes for French economy rebound:

The French government’s deficit will deepen and public debt rise after a lingering coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis smashed hopes of a rapid economic rebound, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Sunday.”

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1837626/business-economy


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Italian and French banks revive ‘doom loop’ fears with bond buying

“Italian and French banks’ exposure to the sovereign debt of their own countries has hit record highs since the pandemic started, reviving fears about the sector’s links to increasingly indebted governments.”

https://www.ft.com/content/fde7833a-8283-45b8-97ae-9104e1c974cd


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Japan’s soft household spending, wages signal prolonged COVID-19 economic strains:

“Japan’s household spending dropped for a third straight month in February, data showed on Tuesday, as emergency curbs to prevent the spread of the coronavirus hurt consumption and raised the risk of a more prolonged and bumpier economic recovery.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-spending/japan-feb-household-spending-hit-by-coronavirus-curbs-idUSKBN2BT00I?il=0


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China Asks Banks to Curtail Credit for Rest of Year:

“China’s central bank asked the nation’s major lenders to curtail loan growth for the rest of this year after a surge in the first two months stoked bubble risks, according to people familiar with the matter.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-is-said-to-ask-banks-to-curtail-credit-for-rest-of-year


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With Swarms of Ships, Beijing Tightens Its Grip on South China Sea:

After building artificial islands, China is using large fleets of ostensibly civilian boats to press other countries’ vessels out of disputed waters.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/world/asia/swarms-ships-south-china-sea.html


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At the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank this week, we can expect measures to support low- and middle-income countries’ pandemic recovery that are laudable but fall well short of what is required…

The IMF’s support measures will certainly not prevent managing director Kristalina Georgieva’s warning of a “dangerous divergence” between economies from becoming a reality.

https://www.ft.com/content/5e6a02e2-c3e4-4fd6-aa08-910bf3186f5b


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Thai households struggle with record debt, COVID-19 increases burden:

Thai households are among the biggest borrowers in Asia, racking up a debt mountain of 14 trillion baht, or 89.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of December, a sharp rise from 78.1% in 2017. And, they are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with payments.”

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/thai-households-struggle-with-record-debt-covid-19-increases-burden/


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Is Brazil Barrelling Toward an All-Out Economic Crisis?

“…Brazil’s politicians have used costly welfare programs to keep the economy and their approval ratings afloat during the pandemic, and are now adverse to putting a cap on public sector spending. Brazil’s fiscal sustainability is at risk due to rising inflation, high public debt and a recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/brazil-barreling-toward-all-out-economic-crisis


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Is Venezuela Preparing For A Military Strike On Colombia?

“…In recent weeks Venezuelan military and police have been conducting offensive operations in the southwestern state of Apure near the Colombian border. Aside from the humanitarian toll they are taking on the local civilian populace, they have sparked fears that Caracas is once again ramping up pressure on its perceived mortal enemy Colombia.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Venezuela-Preparing-For-A-Military-Strike-On-Colombia.html


Turkey’s consumer price inflation is expected to exceed 16% in March, multiple surveys estimated, rising for the sixth straight month.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkeys-inflation-expected-to-surge-above-16-in-march


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Beirut’s blast-hit silos must be demolished, experts warn… Confirmation that the silos cannot be salvaged for future use compounds an already alarming food supply outlook.

“The country, grappling with its worst economic crisis in decades, has received donations of grain and flour in the aftermath of the explosion.”

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210405-beirut-s-blast-hit-silos-must-be-demolished-experts-warn


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Nigeria’s graduates live hand to mouth as jobs crisis worsens: Unemployment rate has quadrupled to 33% since Buhari took office in 2015

Akinnouye is one of millions of jobless young Nigerians, victims of an economic crisis that is driving up poverty and sowing insecurity across Africa’s most populous country.”

https://www.ft.com/content/1fb8a9d8-6891-48ac-a79a-59318e87e828


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More than 1,800 prisoners have escaped from a prison in Nigeria after an attack by suspected militants armed with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns

“It was among a series of coordinated assaults launched in the early hours of Monday, which also targeted police and military facilities in the capital of Imo state.”

https://news.sky.com/story/nigeria-prison-break-more-than-1-800-inmates-escape-after-gunmen-attack-jail-12267362


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They cut out his heart’: Machete killers run wild in Congo’s hidden war:

Frenzied armed gangs have forced the population of an area the size of Ireland to flee in a humanitarian crisis the world has forgotten.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/congos-hidden-war/


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Powerful armed group in Central African Republic vows to leave rebel coalition

“Tensions have been high in the Central African Republic since the December election, although the surge in violence in recent months is just the latest flare-up in a civil war that has lasted eight years since the ouster of president Francois Bozize.”

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/powerful-armed-group-central-african-222032807.html


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At least 40 killed in tribal clashes in Sudan’s West Darfur: UN

“At least 40 people have been killed and 60 others wounded in tribal clashes in the Sudanese city of El Geneina, the United Nations said on Monday, in a renewal of bloodshed following a major flare-up of violence earlier this year.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/5/eighteen-dead-as-violence-escalates-in-sudans-west-darfur-region


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Ethiopian military forces are now fighting a “difficult and tiresome” guerrilla war in the northern Tigray region, prime minister Abiy Ahmed has admitted…

A wave of atrocities including massacres of hundreds committed by Ethiopian troops and their Eritrean allies have fuelled recruitment to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/04/ethiopias-pm-says-military-fighting-difficult-and-tiresome-guerilla-war


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Mozambique’s Growing Insurgency May Pose Threat to Shipping… The insurgency in Northern Mozambique is steadily morphing into a serious maritime security threat in the Western Indian Ocean…

Since their first attack in 2017, the insurgents in Cabo Delgado province have shown increasing capability in conducting amphibious attacks.”

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/mozambique-s-growing-insurgency-may-pose-threat-to-shipping


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Cargo Ship Bottleneck Off Los Angeles Nears Six-Month Mark:

Ship congestion outside the biggest U.S. gateway for Asian imports remained elevated with the wait to offload containers lengthening to eight days, adding costs and complications for companies trying to stay well-stocked in an accelerating economy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-05/the-cargo-ship-bottleneck-off-los-angeles-nears-six-month-mark


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Logjam deepens at world’s ports as pandemic strikes shipping

“The global shipping network that keeps food, energy and consumer goods circulating — and the world economy afloat — is facing its biggest stress test in memory.”

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/logjam-deepens-at-worlds-ports-as-pandemic-strikes-shipping/


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Why Shortages of a $1 Chip Sparked Crisis in Global Economy

““It’s not like you can just make do. If you have everything else, but you don’t have a display driver, then you can’t build your product,” says Stacy Rasgon, who covers the semiconductor industry for Sanford C. Bernstein.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-05/why-shortages-of-a-1-chip-sparked-crisis-in-the-global-economy


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Oil Prices Retreat Amid Demand Worries:

“Oil prices fell Monday, extending a recent stretch of volatility with some traders worried that rising coronavirus cases will halt a rebound in fuel demand.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-retreat-amid-demand-worries-11617636758


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Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time:

“No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a “Climate” thread. Btw, I’m aware that we’ve switched our days around here, so my apologies if that is less desirable. I’ll stick with it for the time being but will no doubt switch back again when there’s another bank holiday if not before.

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