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The entire US economy is about $22 trillion a year. The amount of money, as measured by M1, in the economy has …gone from $4 trillion to $16 trillion in the last year and is still rising fast

“The numbers have gotten so out of control in the M1 data that the Fed says they’re not going to publish this data set anymore…

Is The Entire U.S. Dollar Global Economic System At Risk Of Collapse?

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…Yes, as always and maybe more imminently than most people think… I hate to quote Lenin, but…

““There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.””

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415419-is-entire-us-dollar-global-economic-system-risk-of-collapse


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President Joe Biden will be briefed by advisers this week on infrastructure, climate and jobs proposals being considered by the White House that could collectively cost as much as $4 trillion, according to people familiar with discussions.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-spending/biden-infrastructure-jobs-spending-push-could-hit-4-trillion-source-idUSKBN2BE2QR


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The stock market bubble will burst and inflation will follow: the stock market is assuming that the damage the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are beginning to inflict on the recovering economy will be limited… that happy assumption will explode.

The Fed is underestimating the massive amount of money printing it will have to do to finance the largest peacetime spending the U.S. has ever engaged in.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2021/03/23/stock-market-bubble-will-burst-and-inflation-will-follow/amp/


Inflation Fears Continue To Mount… One reason behind rising interest rate fears is that import prices continue to riseOverall, import prices have risen 3% in the past 12 months, so inflationary pressures continue to build.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4415529-inflation-fears


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Canadian real estate prices are once again the focus of an international agency. An IMF annual staff audit cites home prices as one of the biggest threats to the country’s economy…

They… recommend mitigating leverage build up, and taxing speculators…”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/betterdwelling.com/imf-recommends-canada-implement-anti-speculation-taxes-cites-real-estate-as-risk/amp/


New Zealand on Tuesday (March 23) introduced a raft of measures to cool its red-hot housing market, slugging investors with new taxes and promising to boost supply after housing affordability fell to its lowest ever.”

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/new-zealand-slaps-taxes-on-investors-to-cool-housing-market


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China’s property price declines in lower-tier cities take heavy toll on middle class

“Weakened real estate market in smaller Chinese cities is weighing on people’s ability to spend, impeding government’s goal of driving economic growth.”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3126220/chinas-property-price-declines-lower-tier-cities-take-heavy


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China: More signs of slowdown… After a strong recovery in 2020, growth has slowed in early 2021…

CPI is still in deflation territory as consumer prices fell 0.2% y/y in February… The yuan appreciation vs. the USD has come to a halt as the relative economic strength is shifting back towards the US.”

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/more-signs-of-slowdown-202103231259


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China warns regional banks to brace for tidal wave of bad debt:

“China’s small regional banks are fast approaching a surge of nonperforming debt that threatens to undermine the financial health of the vulnerable lenders.”

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/China-warns-regional-banks-to-brace-for-tidal-wave-of-bad-debt


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India’s government is considering resuming fresh bankruptcy filings after the current suspension expires on March 25, people with knowledge of the matter said.

“The lifting of the halt would come even as a resurgence in virus cases threatens the nascent economic recovery. It could spark a wave of new insolvencies…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/india-likely-to-resume-new-bankruptcy-filings-after-halt-expires


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Argentina posted a 4.3% year-on-year contraction in the final quarter, the official INDEC statistics agency said on Tuesday, while the economy plunged 9.9% for the full-year, both in line with analyst forecasts.

Argentina’s economy has been in crisis since 2018 when it turned to the International Monetary Fund for a $57 billion loan. The country defaulted to private creditors last year.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-economy-gdp/argentina-economy-probably-shrank-4-4-in-fourth-quarter-last-year-analysts-say-idUSKBN2BF1DT?il=0


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Consumer confidence in Brazil registered its third largest monthly fall on record, a survey indicated on Tuesday, hammered by a deadly second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and near collapse of the public health system in several cities

“There have been only two steeper monthly declines since the data series began in 2005: October 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis, and April last year in the first wave of the global pandemic…”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-brazil-consumer-confidence-posts-123022251.html


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Turkey’s money markets face ‘liquidity squeeze’ after lira tumble… Turkey’s money market showed signs of stress on Tuesday, a day after the president’s firing of a respected central bank chief rattled investors and sparked heavy selling in the country’s assets.

“Conditions make it more challenging to unwind positions or bet against the lira, analysts say…”

https://www.ft.com/content/5bdba81e-3012-4f40-855a-42fd24211926


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Lebanon crisis escalates as last-ditch cabinet talks fail to form new govt

“Lebanon’s prime minister-designate Saad Hariri and President Michel Aoun failed Monday to agree on a new government line-up after months of deadlock, as the country sinks deeper into economic crisis. “

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20210322-lebanon-crisis-escalates-as-last-ditch-cabinet-talks-fail-to-form-new-govt


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With low interest rates for most of the past decade, it was clear from the start of the COVID-19 crisis that central banks had little room for maneuver with conventional policy tools. They would have to lean even more heavily on unconventional measures, including initiating or extending corporate asset-purchase programs…

“…the longer their market support continues, the riskier the search for yield may become. Monetary policymakers and credit investors alike are facing an unenviable dilemma.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-credit-markets-catch22-by-patrick-drury-byrne-and-sylvain-broyer-2021-03


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Beware the aftershocks of the Covid-19 recessionHistory shows that recovery from a crisis is never smooth sailing…

“The economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic… will… have aftershocks affecting companies, workers and governments.”

https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/beware-the-aftershocks-of-the-covid-19-recession


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The global chip shortage is continuing to pummel global business, with Samsung, Honda and Volkswagen among the latest major companies to warn of sustained disruption.

“On Wednesday, Samsung co-CEO Koh Dong-jin told investors that the South Korean tech giant was having trouble with its supply chain… Meanwhile, the auto industry… is pointing to worsening conditions.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/17/tech/samsung-honda-vw-semiconductor-shortage-intl-hnk/index.html


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Why the semiconductor shortage won’t end soon… these chips are highly specialized, and that limits the ability to pool supply to mitigate this crisis…

“Will we see price increases soon?

…We’ve seen shortage allocations. If you want to buy a car today, you’ll probably have to wait to get what you want. This is also true for a lot of other products. Some prices will go up and there will be more delays.”

https://techxplore.com/news/2021-03-semiconductor-shortage-wont.html


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Coffee supplies in the United States are shrinking and wholesale prices are surging, with the hard-hit market bracing itself for further fallout from a global shortage of shipping containers that has upended the food trade

“”Everybody is feeling the pinch,” said Mr Christian Wolthers, the president of Wolthers Douque, an importer in Florida, who estimates that shipping costs have more than doubled from Latin America. “These bottlenecks are turning into a container nightmare.”

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/world-facing-a-coffee-deficit-in-supply-chain-nightmare


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A vast container ship has run aground in the Suez canal after being blown off course by a “gust of wind”, causing a huge traffic jam of vessels at either end of the vital international trade artery.

“The 220,000-tonne, 400 metre-long Ever Given – a so-called “mega ship” – became stuck near the southern end of the canal on Tuesday. Several attempts to refloat it have failed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/24/huge-container-ship-blocks-suez-canal-evergreen


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Why humanity is at risk of losing the war against the coronavirus

” With “vaccine nationalism” intensifying by the day, the global effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic is at risk of faltering… the pandemic still has a very long way to go.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-humanity-is-at-risk-of-losing-the-war-against-the-coronavirus-11616525726


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Over 30 million people ‘one step away from starvation’, UN warns: The pandemic, climate crisis and conflict combining to drive ‘alarming’ levels of global hunger, says report…

“An estimated 34 million people are struggling with emergency levels of acute hunger known as IPC (Integrated food security Phase Classification) 4, meaning they are ‘one step away from starvation’.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/24/over-30-million-people-one-step-away-from-starvation-un-warns


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.

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