“How Bad Was 2020 for Tourism? Numbers alone cannot capture the scope of the losses that have mounted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Data sets are crude tools for plumbing the depth of human suffering, or the immensity of our collective grief.
“But numbers can help us comprehend the scale of certain losses — particularly in the travel industry, which in 2020 experienced a staggering collapse.
“Around the world, international arrivals are estimated to have dropped to 381 million in 2020, down from 1.461 billion in 2019 — a 74 percent decline.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/travel/covid-pandemic-tourism-data.html
“Refiners and integrated oil firms continue to struggle with low refining margins, as a part of global oil demand—jet fuel consumption—is still enormously depressed by international travel restrictions.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Crisis-Isnt-Over-For-Oil-Refiners.html
“While the unexpected rollover of the OPEC+ production cuts sent Brent Crude prices up to $70 a barrel, the highest oil prices in more than a year could dampen global oil demand recovery, which the OPEC+ group itself still sees as fragile.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/70-Oil-May-Cause-Slowdown-In-Demand-Recovery.html
“Twenty-five UK councils are at risk of going bust after Covid-19 blew a catastrophic £10bn hole in local authority finances, the Government’s spending watchdog has warned.
“The National Audit Office said that a string of the UK’s 337 councils are at “high” or “acute” risk of financial failure as they struggle to meet the legal requirement to balance their budgets.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/10/covid-crisis-leaves-councils-10bn-black-hole/
“‘Trade has collapsed’: Germany’s exports ticked up in January on robust trade with China, but trade with another key trade partner, Great Britain, plummeted after the Britain left the EU.
“The Brexit fallout has continued to hurt commerce with the United Kingdom, with federal statistics office Destatis recording a 29 percent plunge in German exports across the Channel.”
https://www.thelocal.de/20210309/trade-has-collapsed-germany-business-with-uk-slumps-after-brexit/
“The long lines of Milan’s ‘new Covid poor’: Eyes on the ground, they queue in silence for a food parcel outside Milan’s Pane Quotidiano charity. Since coronavirus swept across Italy a year ago, the line has grown and grown.
“”I’m ashamed to be here. But otherwise I would have nothing to eat,” said Giovanni Altieri, 60, who has been coming every day since the nightclub where he worked was shut under virus regulations.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210309-the-long-lines-of-milan-s-new-covid-poor
“Clashes break out in Greece after march against police:
“A Greek police officer was seriously injured on Tuesday after clashes broke out during a demonstration in an Athens suburb against police violence, prompted by a video that appeared to show a man being beaten on Sunday by officers in the area.”
“Pandemic blamed for falling birth rates across much of Europe: Sharp declines in babies being born 9 months or more on from lockdowns in France, Italy and Spain…
““What’s different this time is that the fall in births is really big,” said Arnaud Regnier-Loilier, Ined’s director of research. “It’s a bit unprecedented, but the crisis is also unprecedented.” “
https://www.ft.com/content/bc825399-345c-47b8-82e7-6473a1c9a861?
“At least 39 migrants drowned off Tunisia when two boats capsized on Tuesday, the defence ministry said, as numbers risking the dangerous crossing to Europe continue to rise…
“Tunisia had been struck by an economic crisis and skyrocketing unemployment even before the coronavirus pandemic. “Job losses, precarious conditions that have hit Tunisians have hit foreign migrant communities even harder…” said Matt Herbert from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.”
“South Africa’s weakest bond auction this year spells trouble for the government’s plans to reduce debt costs…
“Adding to traders’ concerns was data on Tuesday that showed South Africa’s economy contracted the most in a century in 2020 as restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic ravaged output and disrupted trade.”
“‘A long, dark year’: Twelve months into the Covid conservation crisis in Africa:
“…When news of the Covid-19 virus first broke, few could’ve predicted such a far-reaching, long-lasting crisis. The impact around the world has been catastrophic, not least in Africa’s wildlife areas, where people’s livelihoods and vital conservation work rely on tourism money coming in.”
“Argentina Tries to Tax and Spend Its Way Out of an Economic Crisis:
“Three years into a grinding recession, Argentina’s economy is in the worst shape it has been since a 2001 debt default that led to rioting and deaths in the streets. For Mr. Fernández, the solution is to kick-start the economy and tax a prosperous farm sector and wealthy individuals, while avoiding austerity measures such as cutbacks to billions of dollars a year in subsidies.”
“Activists are warning of a looming humanitarian crisis on the border between Chile and Bolivia as growing numbers of migrants brave the harsh terrain of the Chilean altiplano to cross the frontier on foot.
“Chile closed its land borders last year as a preventive measure during the Covid-19 pandemic, but authorities have reported a surge in irregular crossings, mostly caused by Venezuelan migrants…”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/09/chile-bolivia-border-crisis-migrants
“Panama mired in severe economic hardship after year of coronavirus:
“Tuesday marks the grim one-year anniversary of the start of the coronavirus crisis in Panama, which has registered nearly 6,000 deaths since the onset of the pandemic and is facing an economic collapse unmatched in decades.”
https://www.laprensalatina.com/panama-mired-in-severe-economic-hardship-after-year-of-coronavirus/
“Lebanon’s collapse piles strain on army, security forces:
“Discontent is brewing in the ranks of Lebanon’s security forces over a currency crash wiping out most of the value of their salaries as unrest and crime surge. In unusually outspoken comments, army chief General Joseph Aoun said his warnings that the pressure on soldiers’ earnings and morale could lead to an “implosion” had fallen on deaf ears.”
“The U.S. will drive a sharp rebound in the world economy this year, but the strength of the American bounce could unbalance weaker economies, particularly in the developing world.
“…the rise in U.S. government bond yields in response to higher growth and inflation expectations could spark capital flight from emerging economies…”
“California port pileup leaves old records in the dust: Latest crisis both lengthier and more extreme than prior congestion…
“As of Sunday, there were 29 container ships at anchor. Eleven were over 10,000 TEUs. Five of those boasted capacity of 14,000-15,000 TEU. One, the CMA CGM Marco Polo, topped 16,000 TEU.”
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/california-port-pileup-leaves-old-records-in-the-dust
“The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has caused a worldwide disruption in trade flows. According to the WTO, a 9.2% decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020 is expected.”
https://voxeu.org/article/supply-chains-and-trade-flows-volatility-face-global-shocks
“The calm before the storm: Early evidence on business insolvency amid COVID-19…
“Like many economic crises before it, the current recession has caused a marked decline in business activity, interruptions to global value chains, increased unemployment, credit squeezes, and rising government debt levels. It has also caused a liquidity shortfall for both businesses and individuals, weakening their ability to meet debt payment obligations and pushing many into a state of insolvency. “
https://blogs.worldbank.org/psd/calm-storm-early-evidence-business-insolvency-amid-covid-19
“Will the real financial bubble please stand up? Exhibit A is how desperately the US needs low interest rates. It is not that it is stimulative to have low interest rates. The country needs rates to be low to avoid even greater financial distress…
“But this is only the tip of the economic iceberg. The United States continues to borrow and print money at a furious rate.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/541971-will-the-real-financial-bubble-please-stand-up
“Future Fund chairman Peter Costello has warned ultra-low interest rates risk creating the next financial crisis if central banks keep borrowing costs at record lows for longer than necessary.”
“A year after crash, markets boom but bust fears loom: …analysts worry markets may have got too far ahead of themselves and face a sharp reverse if and when governments decide to dampen down the party.
““In my opinion, it would be extremely dangerous to think that the end of the health crisis will be tantamount to the end of the (economic) crisis,” said Vincent Mortier at asset manager Amundi. “In fact, it’s the contrary,” he warned.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210310-a-year-after-crash-markets-boom-but-bust-fears-loom
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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