“Food inflation spike rears its head in emerging markets: …developing countries from Turkey to Nigeria… recorded double-digit jumps in food inflation in 2020. Major wheat and corn exporters such as Russia or Argentina have introduced curbs or taxes to preserve domestic stockpiles, exacerbating pressures elsewhere.
“United Nations data showed food prices hit six-year highs in January after rising for eight consecutive months. The unwelcome return of food price pressures has put policymakers and investors on high alert, worried what it means for inflation more broadly while economies are still reeling from the coronavirus crisis…
“Rising food prices have contributed to social unrest in the past. Climate change effects are expected to exacerbate price swings and rising energy prices add to the pressure.”
“The Biden administration faced a double-dose of bad and not-so-bad news Tuesday on Iran: Iranian leaders hinted they are rethinking their vow to never seek a nuclear weapon, and new Israeli intelligence suggests they are at least two years away from producing one.
“Iran’s intelligence minister raised the possibility that his country would be forced to seek nuclear arms if American sanctions were not lifted…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/middleeast/Iran-nuclear-threat.html
“President Joe Biden’s pick as budget director on Tuesday struck a critical tone against China, voicing concern about potential security threats posed by Chinese technology and accusing Beijing of failing to meet bilateral commitments…
““It is vital that we ensure that China change course,” Neera Tanden said. “It is important that we marshal allies to put pressure on China to ensure that they have a fair trading system where American companies can truly compete against China.”
“China’s central bank has downplayed its decision in January to reduce liquidity in the banking system that caused the country’s worst cash crunch in nearly six years, while fueling worries about a gradual tightening of monetary policy to curb speculation and asset bubbles…
“The PBOC said on Monday its “prudent” monetary policy would strike a balance between economic recovery and risk prevention, while being flexible, targeted and appropriate.”
“The U.K. stands out as the sole Group-of-Seven economy where the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators still point to a slowdown.”
“Rents have fallen in major cities across Britain after tenants swapped crowded urban locations for more space in the country and smaller towns, with London suffering the biggest rent falls since the financial crash…
“City centre landlords have borne the brunt of price drops, the research showed.”
“Brexit represents a bigger challenge to most UK businesses than the Covid-19 pandemic, as additional paperwork, unexpected costs and new regulatory requirements make life more difficult than temporary lockdowns…
“The UK’s five biggest business groups recently warned the government that companies face “significant disruption” if post-Brexit conditions are not eased.”
https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-brexit-a-bigger-headache-for-business-leaders-than-covid-pandemic/
“Germany’s exports and imports slumped by 9.3% and 7.1% respectively during 2020, concluded the federal statistics office Destatis on Tuesday.
“The figures are in comparison to data from 2019 [German exports were already stagnant in that year], showing the stark impact of the coronavirus pandemic on international trade.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-2020-exports-slumped-93-as-pandemic-batters-trade/a-56506934
“Italy’s political crisis is an opportunity for the far right: Most signs indicate that the far right will have more influence over the country’s politics in the coming weeks and months…
“Salvini has been waiting for the right moment to return to the political spotlight after his forced exit from the government in September 2019.”
“Average cost of rent in Spain falls for the first time since financial crisis:
“Rental prices have dropped as a result of the coronavirus crisis which has pushed more tourist apartments onto the market, leading to a surplus of supply.”
“Can Spanish tourism survive a second Covid summer?
““If we lose this summer, we would be talking about practically zero activity from October 2019, when [travel agent] Thomas Cook collapsed, to June of 2022,” Gabriel Escarrer, chief executive of Meliá Hotels International, said, noting that about half of Spanish tourism revenues normally come between June and September. “It would be devastating for the fabric of the tourist industry.””
https://www.ft.com/content/db3f8536-a6be-456e-816e-5879b5916ca2
“The International Monetary Fund risks having to renegotiate its second multi-billion dollar loan in Latin America in as many years following Ecuador’s presidential election.
“At more than $50 billion in total, loans to Argentina and Ecuador represent the bulk of the IMF lending in Latin America. The twin shocks of Covid-19 and a collapse in oil prices are ravaging the Andean nation of 17 million and stirring popular resentment against the Fund…”
“Chile will expel more than one hundred Colombian and Venezuelan migrants who entered the South American nation across its remote northern border, the interior minister said on Tuesday, part of a broader plan to crack down on a recent flood of illegal immigration.
“The government’s decision comes after two migrants died earlier this month of exposure after entering Chile from Bolivia through a highland pass in the Andes Mountains.”
“Nigeria is digging itself deeper into a financial crisis that only a fundamental policy reset can salvage, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Monday.
“Nigeria spent N92 of every N100 earned in 2020 servicing its fast-growing debt stock, according to IMF estimates.”
“Soaring food prices hit Philippine consumers amid recession:
“President Rodrigo Duterte has slapped a 60-day price freeze on pork and chicken in a bid to rein in commodity price inflation burdening the Philippines as its economy struggles with the impact of one of the worst pandemic-induced recessions in Southeast Asia.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Soaring-food-prices-hit-Philippine-consumers-amid-recession
““Covid-19 has highlighted the limits of the existing food systems all over the world because Covid-19 has not only been a public health crisis but it has also generated a hunger crisis… The virus is new, but it has been predictably harshest on marginalised people.
““In fact, the world was falling behind on realising the right to food even before the pandemic – the number of hungry and undernourished people in the world had been rising since 2015.””
“Countries that have weathered the pandemic well face a lasting economic drag from the global collapse in skilled migration which will stunt the growth of their working-age population, economists have warned.
“The coronavirus crisis ended a decade’s steady growth in flows of migrants around the world, according to data collated by the OECD.”
https://www.ft.com/content/146fbb75-8a66-4b41-90a3-e986da2b6505
“A recovery in global trade is expected to slow again in the first quarter of 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic keeps disrupting the travel industry after world trade contracted 9% in 2020, a U.N. report said on Wednesday…
“For the first quarter of 2021, UNCTA projects a 1.5% fall in trade in goods versus the previous quarter, and a 7% drop in trade in services, although it said its forecasts were uncertain…”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-un-idUSKBN2AA0HC
“In 2019, global debt reached $197 trillion, up by $9 trillion from the previous year – before the COVID-19 pandemic had started.
“With economic activity collapsing and added governmental support during the pandemic, many countries are now facing a debt surge.”
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/02/pre-pandemic-debt-covid-coronavirus-economics-imf/
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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As you probably know, when the FAO price index reaches 120 or so, bad things (like the Arab Spring) happen. It’s now 113 and on a steep incline.
I suspect that levels of civil unrest is going to go way up in the next few months.
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Louis