“Economic crises have a tendency to morph. After a crisis gets under way, its epicentre can shift and it can turn contagious in unpredictable ways, impacting areas previously presumed relatively safe…
“…central banks can’t deal with solvency issues, which are the next threat. The demand shock has led to solvency problems because many companies can’t pay their essential expenses…
“Rising bankruptcies could deliver a rude shock to many banks, which may not have been monitoring the solvency of their borrowers during the forbearance period.”
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-covid-19-economic-crisis-could-morph
“America’s biggest companies are flourishing during the pandemic and putting thousands of people out of work: a post analysis found 45 of the 50 biggest U.S. companies turned a profit since March.
“The majority of firms cut staff and gave the bulk of profits to shareholders.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/50-biggest-companies-coronavirus-layoffs/
“The U.S. poverty rate has surged over the past five months, with 7.8 million Americans falling into poverty, the latest indication of how deeply many are struggling after government aid dwindled.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/16/poverty-rising/
“A growing percentage of U.S. homeowners are looking to delay making mortgage payments, the latest sign that the economic recovery is hitting a snag.”
“The Bank of England has written to UK bank bosses telling them to review their exposure to losses that could emerge from businesses hardest-hit by Covid-19, as part of efforts to head off potential risks to the financial system.”
“UK pub and restaurant bosses have warned of jobs “carnage” in the new year as official figures revealed redundancies hit record levels, with the hospitality sector bearing the brunt of the losses.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/15/job-losses-hit-record-370000/
“The UK government is relying heavily on a consumer-led surge once the vaccine rollout gathers pace. Bullish fund managers are betting on it…
“[But] the average household is seeing savings fall, not increase, and the poorest are falling into debt.”
https://www.ft.com/content/21650315-3d0b-48a2-bdab-f80270c6e05f
“Soaring funding costs for Britain’s subprime lenders are making it hard for them to meet growing demand from households crushed by the pandemic…
“Investors concerned about strained household budgets in a historic downturn have pushed up borrowing costs for subprime door-to-door and credit card lenders, including major players Provident Financial and Non-Standard Finance.”
“Expect the UK’s debt time bomb to explode in two years’ time… the great reckoning is to come.
“History tells us that there is typically an 18 month to two year time lag after a crisis before the proverbial rug gets pulled.”
“The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has been much “more severe” on the Irish economy than that of the global financial crisis, a new report has found.
“The research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) discovered significant disparity between the economic impact of the global financial crisis and the effect of coronavirus on the Irish economy.”
“Banks are loading up with loans that are unlikely to be repaid, teeing up Europe for a post-pandemic credit crunch, the European commission has warned.
“As measures were unveiled to avert a freeze in consumer and business lending, the commissioner for financial services, Mairead McGuinness, said bank balance sheets risked being subsumed.”
“China eyes economic goals for next year as debt levels soar:
“China’s leaders are likely to convene this week to lay out their economic priorities for 2021, with analysts expecting a renewed focus on slowing the pace of debt growth and insulating the economy from tensions with the U.S.”
“China has slammed Australia, accusing it of “logically absurd” claims designed to “tarnish” its reputation, as the trade war intensifies.
“Foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin hit out at reports that at least 10 consulates in Shanghai had employed CPC members as staff.”
“Australia will launch a formal appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) later on Wednesday seeking a review of China’s decision to impose hefty tariffs on imports of Australian barley, Minister for Trade Simon Birmingham said.”
“The economic blow from coronavirus has wiped out 81 million jobs across Asia-Pacific this year, with women and young people disproportionately affected, according to the International Labour Organization.”
“Latin America’s deep, structural inequality has contributed to the disproportionate health and economic impacts COVID-19 has had on the region, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Tuesday.”
https://www.devex.com/news/k-shaped-recovery-threatens-an-unequal-latin-america-imf-head-says-98798
“The pandemic hit economies the world over, but Argentina is closing a decade of stagflation in 2020 – with at least two deep recessions during this period.
“The expected pronounced contraction this year threatens to take GDP per capita back to 1980 levels.”
“Venezuelan tax offices stand deserted, classrooms lack teachers, and utility bills go uncollected, as meager civil servant salaries drive chronic absenteeism and resignations in the hundreds of thousands.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/venezuela-wages-insight-idUKKBN28Q1LM
“The light at the end of the tunnel isn’t getting any closer for OPEC and allied oil-producing countries, as forecasts of the world’s need for their supplies next year are cut again.
“The world’s three major oil agencies… all reduced the outlook for global oil demand in 2021 in their latest monthly reports.”
“…we should not confuse [an economic rebound, driven by vaccines] with the sustained global recovery the world needs.
“The world economy is heading for a low-growth, high-unemployment decade… Many advanced economies have exhausted their fiscal headroom in the rescue phase.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e6b2fced-7392-4624-8e4e-ff039e0020dd
“I think we are on the verge of entering into a new kind of ice age — an economic one — around the world today. Massive debt loads weigh down the economy in every sector, forcing central banks to fight tooth and nail to keep interest rates low.
“Meanwhile, demographic researchers recently posited that the peak of human population on the planet is coming much sooner than previously expected and will decline rapidly afterward.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394575-global-economic-ice-age-is-coming
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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