“No vaccine for a US economy that’s sicker than it looks:
“With COVID-19 still raging – and rates of infection, hospitalisation, and death now spiralling out of control (again) – the near-term risks to economic activity have tipped decidedly to the downside in the US and Europe. The combination of pandemic fatigue and the politicisation of public health practices has come into play at precisely the moment when the long-anticipated second wave of COVID-19 is at hand.
“Unfortunately, this fits the script of the dreaded double-dip recession that I warned of recently. The bottom-line bears repeating: apparent economic recoveries in the US have given way to relapses in eight of the 11 business cycles since World War II. The relapses reflect two conditions: lingering vulnerability from the recession itself and the likelihood of aftershocks. Unfortunately, both conditions have now been satisfied.”
“Gripped by the accelerating viral outbreak, the U.S. economy is under pressure from persistent layoffs, diminished income and nervous consumers, whose spending is needed to drive a recovery from the pandemic.
“A flurry of data released Wednesday suggested that the spread of the virus is intensifying the threats to an economy still struggling to recover from the deep recession that struck in early spring.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-claims-rise-778000-pandemic-worsens-74396309
“The holidays often make people more vulnerable to feeling depressed or anxious. But for the millions of Americans suffering from a pandemic-induced financial crisis, the risk is much greater this season.
“Many are at their wit’s end. And it doesn’t appear that help is on the way. Congress is still at odds over a package that would provide additional economic aid…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/success/covid-financial-stress-mental-health-stimulus/index.html
“The government has privately admitted the UK faces an increased likelihood of “systemic economic crisis” as it completes its exit from the European Union in the middle of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
“A confidential Cabinet Office briefing seen by the Guardian also warns of a “notable risk” that in coming months the country could face a perfect storm of simultaneous disasters, including the prospect of a bad flu season on top of the medical strains caused by Covid.”
“Britain is permanently poorer, and the British state weaker, as a result of Covid, the collapse in GDP and the gargantuan debt binge that has kept us going. Our economy is the most socialised it has ever been outside of war, and we have resorted to the printing presses to finance spending in a shockingly unprecedented way, pushing the great fiat money experiment close to breaking point…
“That, in summary, is the economic devastation described or implied by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in what is easily the most terrifying official economic assessment from a developed nation I have ever read.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/25/britain-facing-ruin-deludedtories-still-refusing-accept/
“British subprime lender Amigo reported a 36.5% fall in first half revenues and flagged “material uncertainty” about its future operations, citing worries over the pandemic…
“One of Britain’s biggest subprime lenders, COVID-19 has pummelled the economic resilience of its core customer base, forcing the firm to offer approximately 56,000 loan payment holidays as at Sept. 30.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-amigo-holdings-results-idUKKBN2860JL
“The French government is assembling an expert commission on how to repay the billions of euros it has borrowed to save the economy from the coronavirus crisis, Budget Minister Olivier Dussopt said on Tuesday…
“The list already features business leaders as well as top economists including Beatrice Weder di Mauro, a Swiss-Italian who has advised German Chancellor Angela Merkel.”
“French Interior Minister Gerald Dermanin announced he was launching an investigation into the clashes that broke out late last night after police cleared up a makeshift migrant camp in Place de la Republique in Paris, adding that the footage of the clashes was “shocking,” Reuters reported.
“People posted photos and videos on social media in which police beats up demonstrators.”
“German economy: ‘Fourth-quarter contraction seems inevitable’:
“Considering the partial lockdown in Germany, output looks likely to hit negative territory in the final quarter of the year, the president of the Munich-based ifo institute tells DW.”
https://www.dw.com/en/german-economy-fourth-quarter-contraction-seems-inevitable/av-55710336
“The coronavirus crisis has hit Italy’s already historically-low birth rate, new projections from the national statistics agency reveal.
“Italy had last year already recorded its lowest number of births for 150 years, at 420,000. This could fall to 408,000 in 2020 and 393,000 in 2021, according to Istat.”
https://www.thelocal.it/20201125/italys-low-birthrate-plunging-further-due-to-coronavirus
“Peru labor groups protest for better wages: Labor groups in Peru took to the streets of Lima on Tuesday to demand better working conditions and increased wages.”
Video:
https://news.yahoo.com/peru-labor-groups-protest-better-091614472.html
“‘The fight continues’: Colombia protests persist despite pandemic.
“Anti-government protest organisers say the movement continues to evolve amid the coronavirus outbreak… Despite the months-long restrictions, the movement has continued activities.”
“Zambia has become the first African country to default on its debts since the pandemic, leading to fears that a “debt tsunami” could engulf the continent’s most heavily indebted nations as the financial impact of coronavirus hits…
“As financiers negotiate with finance ministers over repayment terms, the virus is depleting Zambia’s already fragile healthcare resources.”
“Kenya Seeks to Refinance Foreign Commercial Debt at 5% Ceiling…
“Total debt, undisbursed loans are close to borrowing limit. China is nation’s biggest bilateral lender with $6.7 billion.”
“Protesters calling for jobs stopped Tunisia’s entire phosphate output on Wednesday by launching sit-ins at the sole producer of the key export during a day of strikes and protests around the country…
“Tunisia’s phosphate output fell after the 2011 uprising and localised protests and strikes have since steadily cut into production and caused billions of dollars in losses.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/25/protesters-in-tunisia-halt-key-phosphate-production
“Based on Hanke’s Annual Inflation Rate model, Lebanon is seen to have surpassed Zimbabwe, landing as the second most hyperinflated in the world, right after Venezuela.
“Lebanon’s inflation rate reached a high 365%, which is 3 times its percentage rate of August where it was at 120%.”
https://www.the961.com/lebanon-world-2nd-most-hyperinflation/
“The International Monetary Fund’s October acknowledgment of the case for temporary debt monetization in Asia marked yet another example of how the pandemic has upended economic orthodoxy…
“The IMF’s October report even gave qualified approval for central banks in some cases to directly buy their government’s debt, with a list of conditions.”
“China’s state-owned enterprises are being forced to issue bonds at higher interest rates after a slew of high-profile defaults shattered investor confidence in what was once seen as a risk-free asset class…
“This was 1 percentage point higher than the 4.7 per cent recorded in the first three quarters of this year.”
https://www.ft.com/content/397b7cb1-f894-4fb3-9c5e-37708f47969f
“Tourism slump hits global retailers:
“International retail chains were on Tuesday counting the cost of the collapse in world travel, as Abercrombie & Fitch said it would speed up the closure of flagship stores in several major tourist destinations and Tiffany said its sales fell sharply in Europe and the Americas.”
https://www.ft.com/content/dcafb5b0-3ecf-4324-b749-05948124ff97
“Airlines are on course to lose a total $157 billion this year and next, their main global body warned on Tuesday, further downgrading its industry outlook in response to a second wave of coronavirus infections and shutdowns afflicting major markets…
“The bleak outlook underscores challenges still facing the sector despite upbeat news on development of COVID-19 vaccines, whose global deployment will continue throughout next year.”
“The UN is to spend $25m (£19m) from its emergency fund to address what has been called the “shadow pandemic” of gender-based violence against women displaced by wars and disasters.
“The money will be divided between the UN population fund (UNFPA) and UN Women, and at least 30% of it must be given to women-led local organisations that prevent violence and help survivors access medical and legal help, family planning, mental health services and counselling.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
If you found value in this content, please help me continue this work by becoming a $2/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
