““The COVID-19 crisis did not start as a financial crisis, but it is morphing into a global one,” according to Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank.
“She made the comments in The Economist’s highly anticipated The World in 2021 report… Her views echo those of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who said on Tuesday at TheCityUK conference that changes to the structure of the UK economy were likely.”
“Millions of people across the US continue to face unemployment, as the number of jobs in the US remains at more than 10m fewer than prior to the pandemic in February.
“More than 25 million workers in the US are suffering from the economic downturn, including those people claiming unemployment benefits, workers designated as having left the labor force due to the pandemic, and workers still facing cuts to work hours and pay.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/18/us-unemployment-rate-coronavirus-long-term
“U.S. politicians are behaving like children by not passing a new stimulus bill that could help Americans whose income has been wiped out by the coronavirus pandemic, JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said on Wednesday at a New York Times conference.
““This is childish behavior on the part of our politicians,” Dimon said about an impasse between Democrats and Republicans…”
“America: The world’s scariest emerging market economy:
“Americans have long viewed their economy as the shining city on the hill for other countries to emulate. Yet since the 2008 Lehman bankruptcy, and especially over the past four years, the U.S. economy has increasingly resembled the emerging market economies to which we have been so free with our economic advice.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/526410-america-the-worlds-scariest-emerging-market-economy
“Rishi Sunak is preparing to publish what allies describe as a “scary” outlook for the UK economy in next week’s spending review, containing the largest downgrade in economic performance and the public finances since the second world war…
“…the UK economy will contract close to 11 per cent in 2020, the worst annual performance for more than 300 years.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2883c55f-e4e1-40c2-9075-62c96dd6ecd8
“Digital currencies could reduce risk in the financial system and aid monetary policy with interest rates close to rock bottom, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane has said.
“Haldane also told The City UK’s annual conference that new technological infrastructure should be considered to help small and medium-sized businesses better access finance after years of difficulties.”
https://www.cityam.com/boes-andy-haldane-digital-currencies-could-cut-risk-and-boost-lending/
“Europe’s leaders will demand today that the European Commission publish no-deal plans amid fears that Brexit negotiations are dragging on without businesses knowing what they need to prepare for in the worst scenario.
“Several European Union governments are growing frustrated that deadlines for trade, security and fishing talks are slipping…”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-eu-leaders-press-for-own-no-deal-plans-lndvzpzft
“After a one-month reprieve, passenger car sales in Europe slumped again in October amid new restrictions in many countries aimed at containing a resurgence of the coronavirus, the European carmakers’ association reported Wednesday.
“The European industry registered 953,616 new cars last month, a decrease of 7.8% and a reversal of fortunes after September marked the first increase of the year…”
“Germany’s auto industry secured 5 billion euros ($5.9 billion) in government aid to help weather the coronavirus crisis and invest in the transition to electric cars.”
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/german-auto-sector-gets-billions-aid-weather-virus-crisis
“Police in Germany broke up a protest against the government’s efforts to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on Wednesday.
“As many as 10,000 people gathered in the government district of Berlin as lawmakers in the German Parliament voted to amend the country’s Infection Protection Act to clarify what kind of protective measures can be ordered by state governments.”
“Journalists, human rights groups protest new French security bill…
“Macron’s centrist government has proposed a new “comprehensive security” law that would institute reforms such as giving more autonomy to local police — and potentially arming more of them — and expanding the use of surveillance drones in high-crime areas.”
“A lone protest by an Italian girl against the closure of her school because of coronavirus restrictions is spreading around the country.
“For the last few days, Anita Iacovelli has set up a small blue desk, a pink metal chair and her laptop outside the school she used to attend in Turin.”
“Italy’s government will seek parliamentary approval for 20 billion euros ($24 billion) of extra deficit on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter.
“A cabinet meeting will sign off on the request, the people said asking not to be named discussing plans that will enable the virus-battered to further expand its public debt as soon as this year.”
“Italy plans to widen an existing guarantee scheme for bank loans in a move that will help the country’s lenders cope with any future defaults sparked by the pandemic, a draft of the 2021 budget showed.”
“The European Commission issued on Wednesday a warning to Athens that the market support measures during the pandemic should not be excessive so that they do not jeopardize the sustainability of the public debt.
“It also highlighted that the debt will remain at risk unless growth is supported, which makes it imperative that reforms continue…”
“Hungary and Poland plunged the EU into political crisis on Wednesday by blocking a £1.65 trillion coronavirus rescue budget that they claimed ‘blackmailed countries into accepting migrants’.
“On Monday, the two countries blocked the 2021-2027 budget and the recovery plan, worth a combined 1.85 trillion euros, because access to the funds would be conditional on respecting the rule of law.”
“Japan’s biggest labor union said COVID-19 won’t stop it demanding pay increases for its 7 million members, even after the worst year for corporate profits since the global financial crisis.
“Rikio Kozu, head of the Union, indicated in an interview Tuesday he’ll push for a 4% wage increase, including base pay, even though rising waves of the coronavirus are darkening the outlook for employers.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/19/business/economy-business/union-wages-pandemic/
“General Motors Co has issued its strongest warning yet that persistent industrial unrest could drive it out of South Korea, just two years after it received a state-backed rescue package to stay…
“The strikes and other industrial action have cost the company 17,000 vehicles in lost production, a number that will hit 20,000 by the end of the week.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-southkorea-labor-exclusive-idUKKBN27Y0NR
“As Beijing reins in its largesse and credit stresses rise in China amid a wave of defaults, investors should wonder where the ructions will appear next.
“Going by the numbers, local government financing vehicles – with trillions of yuan outstanding – seem primed to come under pressure.”
“Dozens of Hong Kong students turned their graduation ceremony on Thursday into a march to commemorate pro-democracy protests last year that included violent clashes with police across city campuses.
“Wearing black graduation robes and Guy Fawkes masks, the students marched through the campus of Chinese University of Hong Kong…”
“Thousands of protesters in Thailand converged on the police headquarters in Bangkok on Wednesday night, defacing the building a day after violent protests left dozens injured.
“Angered by the government’s decision to reject a constitutional reform proposal – a key demand of protesters – and alleged police violence, demonstrators hurled buckets of colourful paint and sprayed graffiti on the Royal Thai Police headquarters’ building facade.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54997111
“Security forces in Uganda have fought running battles with supporters of the popular Ugandan reggae singer and opposition presidential hopeful Bobi Wine after the 38-year-old was arrested for breaching Covid-19 regulations shortly before a rally…
“In violent clashes, dozens were reported to have been hit by live rounds fired by police and as many as eight killed.”
“Nigeria’s central bank has denied that it is unjustly targeting leaders of the anti-police brutality movement that brought Africa’s largest city to a standstill last month.
“The bank has blocked several bank accounts amid an “ongoing investigation by the Central Bank of Nigeria” into the activities of 20 people and organisations “who are alleged to be involved in suspected terrorism financing”, according to its filing with the Abuja federal high court.”
https://www.ft.com/content/aba78069-6e7d-4454-b570-e15cd408f821
“Protesters clashed with police officers in Port-au-Prince on Wednesday as they called for the resignation of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse amid corruption allegations against him.
“The demonstrators lit fires on the street and threw objects at police officers, who in turn responded by shooting live ammunition and tear gas at the protesters.”
“Hundreds of people protested in Chile’s capital Santiago on Wednesday to demand the resignation of President Sebastian Pinera over police repression of the country’s social protests.
“Police fired tear gas and water cannon to keep around 500 protesters from approaching the Moneda presidential palace.”
“Venezuelan oil could become world’s biggest stranded asset, say experts:
““…Oil will not save us this time around,” said Pedro Burelli, a former board member of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA who now runs a consultancy in the US. “We have to reinvent ourselves as a country and as an economy.””
https://www.ft.com/content/cafbd3c7-2434-4f23-8da8-1f7052efdc8e
“Estimates from the Air Transport Action Group suggest some 4.8 million aviation workers’ jobs are at risk as a result of air travel demand falling more than 75% in August 2020 compared with August 2019.
“The impact of travel restrictions and quarantine measures have effectively closed down the aviation industry… “Aviation faces an unprecedented employment catastrophe,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.”
https://airlines.iata.org/news/action-needed-to-prevent-a-jobs-catastrophe
“Norwegian Air has asked an Irish court to oversee a restructuring of its massive debt as it seeks to stave off collapse amid the coronavirus pandemic, the budget airline said on Wednesday.”
“Governments and central banks have promised to shell out $19.5 trillion since the coronavirus erupted to “put a floor under the world economy,” according to the International Monetary Fund.
“Some countries need even more help to recover from the crisis, but they might not get it.”
“The coronavirus crisis pushed global debt levels to a new high of over $272 trillion in the third quarter, the Institute for International Finance said, as it warned of the “attack of the debt tsunami.”
“The institute said global debt would break new records in the coming months to reach $277 trillion by the end of the year. This would represent a debt-to-GDP ratio of 365%.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/coronavirus-drives-global-debt-to-a-new-record-high.html
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
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