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The world’s stockpile of negative-yielding debt has swelled to a record in the wake of the U.S. election, as investors lower expectations for a fiscal splurge and turn their focus back to monetary support.

“The market value of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Negative Yielding Debt Index rose to $17.05 trillion on Thursday, the highest level ever recorded…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-06/negative-yielding-debt-hits-record-17-trillion-on-bond-rally


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The most turbulent and norm-breaking presidential election of a lifetime has led to an extraordinary spectacle in the United States over the past three days: armed protesters gathering nightly outside offices where workers are counting the votes that will decide who wins the White House

““The more we see, the more people see it as a normal reaction — even though it’s not. There’s nothing normal about it,” said Cynthia Miller-Idriss, a professor at American University who studies extremism. “The potential for violence becomes normalized.”

https://apnews.com/article/protests-vote-count-safety-concerns-653dc8f0787c9258524078548d518992


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If We Don’t Move Fast [with generous stimulus], the US Economy Is Going to Get Much Worse:

“Don’t be fooled by promising economic numbers, America is still in deep trouble… Employment gains have essentially stalled. Hotels, airlines, live spectator events, full offices and office towers and the vast small-business ecosystem that supports those will not be viable until the virus is no longer shaping who can go where and when.”

https://time.com/5908218/economy-stimulus-going-to-get-worse/


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The clash of a Democratic President and a Republican Senate more or less guarantees a negative fiscal shock for the US economy just as recovery fades and the pandemic takes a fresh turn for the worse

“Chairman Jay Powell warned on Thursday that a fresh fiscal package is “absolutely essential”, echoing the cry of the central banks all over the developed world.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/06/washington-gridlock-means-austerity-rising-risk-us-double-dip/


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The Federal Reserve has kept monetary policy steady with interest rates at rock bottom and no changes to its bond purchases, as chairman Jay Powell warned the rise in coronavirus cases around the world was “particularly concerning”

“In his press conference, Mr Powell emphasised the risk stemming from increasing infection rates.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3b577f14-c638-4536-aeb0-f63508e7e295


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Britain’s economy will shrink by 11% and unemployment will rise to 2.6million amid Boris Johnson’s latest lockdown, bank of England warns:

“Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank expects the economy to shrink again. He said economic output would be 11% lower at end of the year than at the start.”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8919803/Britains-economy-shrink-11-unemployment-rise-2-6million-bank-England-warns.html


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A third of UK hotels and restaurants fear going bust over a bleak winter as bosses brace for another slump in sales and investment.

“A second lockdown risks pushing many hospitality firms over the edge with 32pc in the accommodation and food services industry having no or low confidence in surviving the next three months, according to the Office for National Statistics.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/05/third-hotels-restaurants-fear-collapse-tough-winter/


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The second UK lockdown has come under immediate threat from angry protesters, with almost 200 arrests made in London and university students tearing down fencing in Manchester.

“As many as 16 anti-lockdown protests are planned for this weekend in England as police vowed to crack down on anybody flouting the new Covid-19 restrictions.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/06/lockdown-frays-just-one-day-protests-planned-across-england/


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Britain is set to face “significant disruption” when the Brexit transition period ends, whether or not a trade deal is agreed…

“With less than two months to go until the UK leaves the EU’s single market and customs union, the National Audit Office (NAO) says border preparations are not ready and have been further slowed down by the coronavirus pandemic.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-trade-deal-disruption-national-audit-office-b1620484.html


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Eurozone: Second leg of the recession coming up:

“The second wave in Covid-19 infections has led to new lockdowns in the eurozone, most probably leading to a fall back into recession in the fourth quarter.

“With inflation close to 0%, the European Central Bank has announced more policy action in December.”

https://think.ing.com/articles/eurozone-second-leg-of-the-recession-coming-up/


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German industrial might is wilting in the face of the Covid-19 crisis as Europe’s biggest economy attempts to stave off a double-dip recession.

“September figures showed a weaker than expected 1.6pc rise in output over the month, leaving production still almost 8pc below pre-pandemic levels. Economists warned that its industrial sector represented Germany’s “only hope” of avoiding a renewed slump…”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/06/contraction-fears-rise-german-factories-wilt/


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Germany’s demonstrations against anti-coronavirus public health measures have now become part of the country’s political furniture, but when they started in June, many were shocked to see tens of thousands of people regularly gathering around the country as a movement known as “Querdenker” (“lateral thinkers”) built momentum…

The movement… has become more aggressive…”

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-braces-for-anti-lockdown-protests/a-55513848


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[Greece’s] retail market fears the new lockdown announced on Thursday might be the nail in the coffin of numerous small and medium-sized enterprises, given that so many had already taken a hit during the spring quarantine, following the decade-long financial crisis…

“Although the back-door collection of commodities ordered online had been considered, this will not be permitted after all.”

https://www.ekathimerini.com/258877/article/ekathimerini/business/market-fears-catastrophe-by-lockdown


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Violent clashes at anti-lockdown protest in Thessaloniki, Greece:

“There have been violent clashes between protesters and police at an anti-lockdown protest in Thessaloniki, Greece.”

Video:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/violent-clashes-anti-lockdown-protest-190000498.html


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A Japanese government report released Friday expressed concerns over the possibility that the country will face deflationary pressure due to a lack of demand and a decline in growth potential stemming from a fall in capital expenditures

“…the coronavirus outbreak is estimated to have pushed down personal consumption by some 31 trillion yen in April-June on an annualized basis… The figure is far larger than 5.5 trillion yen in lost consumption in January-March 2009 due to the global financial crisis…”

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020110600289/


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The IMF said on Friday it will start talks with the government of crisis-ravaged Argentina on a new rescue package next week.

“The mission will “launch formal negotiations… on a new programme with the IMF to support the economic plan of the government,” the spokesman said in a statement.”

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/imf-to-launch-talks-with-argentina-over-new-loan-next-week.phtml


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Walmart Inc, the world’s largest retailer, said on Friday it was selling its retail operations in Argentina to South American supermarket chain owner Grupo de Narváez, pulling back as the country grapples with an economic crisis.

The U.S. company… said it would record about a $1 billion after-tax, non-cash loss related to the divestiture

“The government has been fending off talk that international firms are looking for the exit.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-walmart-divestiture-argentina/walmart-to-sell-operations-in-recession-hit-argentina-taking-1-billion-hit-idUKKBN27M20T


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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan removed the central bank governor from his post on Saturday and replaced him with former finance minister Naci Agbal after the lira currency hit record lows, losing 30 percent of its value since the start of the year.

“The decision to replace Murat Uysal as governor was made by presidential decree…” [The big question – will this currency crisis turn into a debt crisis? Many European banks (Spanish banks most of all) are exposed to Turkish debt.]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/7/turkeys-erdogan-replaces-central-bank-governor-as-lira-plummets


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South Africa is currently plunged in a deep economic and social crisis, where the poor are facing the worst of it

“Seven months of lockdown has left millions of South Africans facing starvation and increased dependence on social grants as the government scrambles to avert a financial crisis…”

https://northafricapost.com/44946-south-africa-facing-deep-economic-social-crisis.html


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Is Nigeria Headed for an Era of Hyperinflation? [Yes. Barring a brief spike or two, oil prices are likely to remain well below Nigeria’s fiscal break-even requirements and their economic over-reliance on the commodity will push them in the same direction as Venezuela].

“Based on our monthly market survey, headline inflation is projected to increase sharply by 0.79% to 14.5% in October and remain stubbornly high in Q4’20. If our October projections turn out to be accurate, it means inflation will be rising for the 14th consecutive month.”

https://www.proshareng.com/news/Nigeria%20Economy/Is-Nigeria-Headed-for-an-Era-of-Hyperinflation-/54182


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An anti-government protester was killed and 40 others wounded in the southern city of Basra on Friday. Medics said Omar Fadhel was hit by at least one bullet as hundreds of protesters and the anti-riot police clashed.

Basra security sources and rights official said several dozen protesters took to the streets in the country’s southern oil hub demanding jobs and basic services.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/6/iraq-activist-killed-as-security-forces-try-to-break-up-protest


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Global Oil Demand Is Weaker Than Expected: – According to Standard Chartered, demand could fall by 2.17 mb/d to 90.51 mb/d in November, largely due to the hit in Europe. Partial nationwide lockdowns have been announced in France, Germany, and the UK, among other places.

“Global demand could be down 8.73 mb/d in the fourth quarter, year-on-year, a 1 mb/d larger decline than the investment bank estimated two weeks ago.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Oil-Demand-Is-Weaker-Than-Expected.html


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Burkina Faso, Yemen, South Sudan and Nigeria… could potentially fall into famine within three to six months as the coronavirus pandemic erodes people’s ability to access food…

“… millions of people who were already facing hunger are on the brink of famine as the pandemic plunders employment, disrupts agricultural activities, slashes remittances and sends crude prices spiralling.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/6/millions-in-four-hotspots-hit-by-covid-face-famine-un-warns


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Global Perspectives: Bigger Governments with Higher Debts Are Here to Stay:

“There has been a significant rise in government intervention in the economy [due to the pandemic] – a development near universally welcomed and understood as necessary to avoid even greater hardship.

“The by-product of higher government debt is an issue set aside for another day. A policy response accepted in a crisis, especially if it proves effective, becomes easier to contemplate post-crisis. As such, sentiment may be more favourably inclined to the idea of bigger government in the years ahead.”

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-perspectives-bigger-governments-with-higher-debts-are-here-to-stay-06-11-2020


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The global riot control system market grew at a compound annual growth rate of around 6% during 2014-2019:

“Riot control systems consist of various agents, such as irritants, lacrimators and tear gases, for controlling, dispersing or arresting the individuals involved in protests and riots…

The market is primarily driven by increasing instances of communal violence and protests across the globe.” 

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201106005195/en/Global-Riot-Control-System-Market-Report-2020-2025-Focus-on-Irritants-Lacrimators-and-Tear-Gases—ResearchAndMarkets.com


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back on Monday with a climate thread.

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