“…For the first time, in 60 per cent of the global economy — including 97 per cent of advanced economies — central banks have pushed policy interest rates below 1 per cent. In one-fifth of the world, they are negative. With little room for further rate cuts, central banks have deployed unconventional measures.
“Despite this effort, persistently low inflation — and in some cases intermittent deflation — has raised the spectre of further monetary easing to achieve negative real rates if another shock strikes. It has led to the inescapable conclusion that the world is in a global liquidity trap, where monetary policy has limited effect. We must agree on appropriate policies to climb out.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2e1c0555-d65b-48d1-9af3-825d187eec58
“A Country Facing High Joblessness, Virus Rates and Anxiety Picks Its President:
“Voters describe a fundamental unease about America’s future… The division and anxiety are evident in conversations among voters in long lines outside early voting places and across browning autumn lawns where warring yard signs pit neighbor against neighbor.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/election-coronavirus-unemployment.html
“America’s economy faces severe new strains in the two months between Tuesday’s election and January, a period when Washington could be consumed by political paralysis and gridlock.
“This window is typically used by successful presidential candidates to plan for the outset of their administration, but several large economic sectors are bracing to be hit…”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/11/02/economy-coronavirus-lame-duck/
“Millions of Americans are sliding into financial distress because of the Covid-19 pandemic’s mismanagement—and the prolonged recession that now appears likely.
“Now that infections and deaths are spiking again, financial markets have turned nervous as investors brace for another round of economic pain. U.S. stocks just turned in their worst week since March…”
“Leaving New York: High earners in finance and tech explain why they left the ‘world’s greatest city’.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/31/why-high-earners-in-finance-and-tech-left-new-york-city.html
“Peebles Corporation CEO Don Peebles told “Mornings with Maria” on Monday that the struggling New York City real estate market amid the coronavirus pandemic and civil unrest could create another financial crisis.
“Peebles also explained the three things that “converged on New York City” to create a “perfect storm” for the city’s decline.”
“Exorcism: Increasingly frequent, including after US protests:
“In Portland, Oregon, Archbishop Alexander Sample led a procession of more than 200 people to a city park on Oct. 17, offered a prayer, then conducted a Latin exorcism rite intended to purge the community of evil.
“In popular culture, exorcism often serves as a plot device in chilling films about demonic possession.
“This month, two Catholic archbishops showed a different face of exorcism – performing the rite at well-attended outdoor ceremonies to drive out any evil spirits lingering after acrimonious protests.”
“One post, 947 applicants: restaurant’s story reveals the depth of UK jobs crisis:
“Desperate candidates for a minimum wage role in Manchester face dwindling savings and choosing between paying for food or bills.”
“Companies [England] have warned of hundreds of millions of pounds in lost businesses over the coming weeks as they scramble to assess the cost of the new national lockdown.
“Associated British Foods said its Primark high street chain would lose £375m in sales after the UK government said that all non-essential shops in England needed to close for at least one month from November 5…”
https://www.ft.com/content/e627b2b2-498a-46f8-8bb6-08f4139c61cc
“Fresh lockdowns to stem the spread of coronavirus have sparked sometimes violent protests in several European countries, fuelled both by ideological fury at new government-imposed restrictions and fears of economic hardship.
“The protests suggest mounting dissatisfaction with governments’ responses to the pandemic and, amid a growing realisation that it will last for some time yet…”
“Spain fears the risk of sovereign debt crisis in Latin America:
““In addition to health challenges, countries in the region may have difficulties in obtaining financing.
“There is neither a Federal Reserve nor a European Central Bank for them: beyond the market, their capacity will depend on the answers that international financial institutions can give, ”explained the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Latin America, Cristina last Thursday. Gallach.”
https://pledgetimes.com/spain-fears-the-risk-of-sovereign-debt-crisis-in-latin-america/
“Colombia became the latest emerging market to end a series of interest rate cuts, joining peers from Brazil to South Africa as it recovers from the pandemic…
“Many emerging markets that slashed interest rates after the pandemic hit are now pausing while they gauge the strength of the recovery…
“Colombia’s economy is set to contract 8.5% this year, according to the central bank, which would be the worst slump in more than a century.”
“…like the pandemic crisis, the response itself has left the finances of governments and businesses, especially in low and middle-income countries, looking extremely vulnerable.
“Their debts cannot be ignored and their ability to fund them through growth is uncertain.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d6e1a8ed-987a-450f-b81e-d113c4556b2d
“Oman’s finance ministry announced it is considering rolling out unprecedented income taxes to bridge the country’s budget deficit after oil prices crashed with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic…
“None of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states – all oil-revenue reliant countries – currently collect taxes from individuals.”
“Iraq has slipped deeper into crisis as the downturn in oil prices has left the government struggling to raise funds to pay salaries, coronavirus cases have soared and militias roam freely, striking fear into their critics.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e8a3aff8-25e8-414e-bc09-1bbd6eaaa92e
“After easing its fiscal rules and raising taxes, Russia is running out of options to bolster public finances strained by the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse in the price of oil, its main export.
“The slump in global demand caused by the pandemic has dragged oil prices down to around $40 barrel, roughly half what Russia would, in theory, need to balance its budget this year.”
“Algeria, with a population of 44 million and vast oil reserves, has been battered by low crude prices and the coronavirus pandemic, further hurting a young population already suffering from spiralling unemployment.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1757196/middle-east
“The debt owed to China by copper-rich Zambia and other African countries has skyrocketed in recent years under Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
“As default risks mount due to the pandemic, the Group of 20 rich nations have tried to ease the debt burden, but China has faced criticism that it has been slow to offer relief.”
“Faced with an increasingly hostile world, China is looking inward. At the heart of its latest Five-Year Plan, a blueprint for economic development unveiled on Oct. 29, is a Mao-era slogan that arguably represents the posture of a government feeling threatened by what it calls “hostile foreign forces” while also defiant—zili gengsheng, or “self-reliance.”
“For example, instead of depending on imported technology, China will go all-out to produce its own while looking to domestic consumption to drive growth.”
“The spread of coronavirus this year has hit trade and travel as it plunged many countries into recession. It has also triggered renewed efforts to nationalise supply chains, particularly for key medical equipment and drug ingredients…
““There was already a strong case that globalisation had stalled and in some respects was going into reverse. The globalised world that centred on the twin poles of China and the US was breaking apart. But that shift became all-but-irreversible this year,” Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, wrote in note in September.”
https://www.ft.com/content/35737c53-d6cc-4532-9440-bfb0af82af10
“Despite hopes that the shock of coronavirus could lead to a more egalitarian society, all the evidence suggests it is instead widening existing divisions — between generations and geographies, genders and ethnicities and, crucially, between white-collar remote workers and those whose jobs can only be done face to face.
““We are really not all in this together. It is far, far worse for some than for others,” Gertjan Vlieghe, a Bank of England policymaker, said in a recent speech.”
https://www.ft.com/content/750eb552-639e-4fa0-941b-4f3f57f1a8d4
“The great divergence: U.S. COVID-19 economy has delivered luxury houses for some, evictions for others.”
“More airlines are likely to collapse in the coming months if governments cut aid to the industry devastated by the coronavirus-induced slump, with experts saying a full fledged recovery is likely to be pushed back to 2024.
“Demand for air travel is lagging even the most pessimistic of recovery scenarios…”
“Carriers in jurisdictions where there is scant support from up high are most likely to go bust, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News… Bloomberg sifted through available data on listed commercial airlines to identify the ones most prone to financial strife…
“The list now is populated more by carriers in Africa and Latin America, where some have already folded or entered administration. Representatives from Medview Airlines Plc, Precision Air Services Ltd., Grupo Aeromexico SAB and Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA didn’t immediately respond to requests seeking comment.”
“Central banks are… now in a bind. Those like the RBA and the Bank of England, with heavily indebted household sectors on floating rate mortgages, cannot raise interest rates without collapsing disposable income, but neither can they stimulate activity as rates are already so low.
“There is a powerful image used in economics to describe policy impotence of pushing on a string, which is where we now are with the household sector and monetary policy.”
“In the past cycle, central banks have been constantly intervening in the market in order to counter the massive disinflationary pressure.
“It seems that the only option remaining from global policymakers is to print more.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4383522-central-banks-response-to-covidminus-19-crisis-just-print
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread – we have a pretty staggering November hurricane in Eta, currently pounding Nicaragua.
“disinflationary” – LOL
“In the face of massive anti-disinflationary actions by the banks, dropping prices and effete pseudo-intellectual bullshit proved that they had no clue.”
Perhaps the best indication that things are coming to an end that I have ever read. There are changes afoot.
Glad that one hit the mark for you, Lou!
America looks to elect a wanna-be fascist while the global economy crumbles and burns. Massive second wave of Covid-19 sweeping thru Europe and the US, and inequality skyrocketing. 2020 just keeps getting more interesting. SSP4, here we come.