“The next U.S. administration will likely face a global debt crisis that could dwarf what the world experienced in 2008-2009…
“A full-fledged debt crisis would be devastating to the whole global economy—and to the prospects for human progress.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/20/election-2020-global-debt-crisis/
“As the coronavirus pandemic continues into its eighth month, a growing number of Americans are exhausting their state unemployment benefits and shifting to extended payments funded by the federal government.
“But this additional cushion won’t last much longer for many people.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/unemployment-benefits-jobless-state-federal/index.html
“The UK financial regulator is urging borrowers affected by coronavirus lockdowns to seek support from their banks, as its figures show 12m Britons are likely to struggle with bills or loan repayments.
“In its strongest call to action yet, the Financial Conduct Authority has told consumers in difficulty to ask their lenders for more support and seek free debt advice from government-backed bodies and charities.”
https://www.ft.com/content/72bf5779-2dd4-48bf-8c09-00e0421efe91
“Thousands of middle-income professionals who have lost their job during the pandemic have reported turning to food banks, going into debt and suffering from stress and anxiety after they were turned down for universal credit, research reveals.
“…more than half reported problems with mental health, and around one in six said they had struggled to afford food.”
“The English social care system urgently needs £7 billion a year to prevent a collapse as the pandemic pushes the sector further into a funding crisis, MPs have warned.
“The emergency boost would be a “starting point” to avoid a disaster and is not enough fully to address unmet need…”
“Britain’s government borrowing in the first half of the financial year was more than six times higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, official figures showed on Wednesday, taking public debt to its highest since 1960.”
“Over half the small and medium-sized companies which together provide jobs for two-thirds of European workers fear for their survival in the coming 12 months, according to a survey released by management consultancy McKinsey on Thursday.
“The survey was conducted in August, before the current acceleration in new coronavirus cases across Europe that is forcing governments to impose new restrictions…”
“The German economy has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, but even Frankfurt’s investment bankers will not emerge unscathed, according to the results of a study published Wednesday.
“Germany’s banking hub is set to lose thousands of jobs from the economic shocks of the COVID-19 crisis…”
“With new figures out today to show yet another dizzying record for public debt (now running at over 736.6 billion euros), governor of the Bank of Portugal Mário Centeno has warned of the risk of a new financial crisis.
“Alerts on this level have started coming in thick and fast. Specialists have been talking to the media about a ‘time bomb’ in the form of bank moratoria on credits which have been taken up by well over 700,000 families.~”
https://www.portugalresident.com/portugals-central-bank-governor-warns-of-new-financial-crisis/
“The global economy may still face new pressing problems, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes.
“”The processes of global economic recovery are extremely unstable. Moreover, it may face new pressing problems,” he said at a meeting with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs’ executive-board members on Wednesday.”
https://tass.com/economy/1214691
“Nine months on from Saudi Arabia’s second major oil price war in the last five years, more negative consequences are manifesting themselves.
“Aside from the irrevocably damaged core relationship with the U.S., the permanent distrust of international investors, and the further alienation of many of its fellow OPEC members, Saudi Arabia is now beginning to discover the true depth and breadth of damage that it has done to its own economy, which will endure for many years to come.”
“Cratering crude-tanker rates are now well below both breakeven levels and where they normally are at this time of year.”
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-crude-tanker-collapse-could-be-long-and-painful
“Indian economy set to suffer deepest contraction on record:
“The latest Reuters poll showed that the Indian economy is poised for almost a double-digit contraction this fiscal year, as the fiscal support does little to counter the economic damage induced by the coronavirus pandemic.”
“…the surge in mainland China’s imports and exports could be temporary. Mainland China’s current-account surplus is rising, suggesting its recovery is not helping other economies much.
“Most troubling of all, rising trade imbalances, along with trade and technology conflicts, could well lead to further actions to limit trade, not just by the US but also by key economies in Europe and Asia.”
https://www.scmr.com/article/challenges_to_globalization_remain_daunting_says_ihs_markit
“Chinese regulators are asking property developers to provide more details about their debts than markets had expected, as authorities look to tackle unbridled borrowing in the real estate sector, according to a document seen by Reuters.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUKKBN2761ES
“The International Monetary Fund said Asia is forecast to shrink by 2.2% this year — worse than its previous forecast in June for a 1.6% contraction.
“The downgrade in forecast “reflects a sharper contraction, notably in India, the Philippines, and Malaysia,” the IMF said its latest Regional Economic Outlook report for Asia and Pacific.”
“Japanese households’ confidence in the economy slumped to a decade-low in the three months to September, a central bank survey showed, underscoring the pain the coronavirus pandemic has inflicted on the world’s third-largest economy.
“The data heightens the chance the government and the Bank of Japan will maintain their massive stimulus programmes…”
https://in.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-boj-sentiment-idINL4N2HD1BB
“Latin America’s tentative economic recovery from the coronavirus-related recession faces increasing doubts over gigantic budget gaps and dwindling investor confidence, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-latam-economy-poll-idUSKBN2751MO
“Hundreds of Bolivians protested Tuesday against the impending election win of Luis Arce, as the slow official count appeared set to confirm the leftist as their next president.
“”It’s a fraud, as Evo Morales has always done,” Yeni, a participant in the protest held in Santa Cruz, Bolivia’s richest city and a Camacho stronghold, told AFP.”
“Thousands of union members, teachers, students and Indigenous people are set to participate in a national strike in Colombia on Wednesday to protest against the social and economic policies of President Ivan Duque, the killing of human rights activists and recent police violence.
“The marches are the latest in a sporadic series of protests that began late last year, including September demonstrations against police brutality that led to 13 deaths.”
“The risk of sovereign default is growing across Africa because of higher debt levels and currency risk. At the same time, reduced demand and lower commodity prices have pushed some African countries, particularly those reliant on the export of oil and metals, into deep recessions.
“This financial pressure is also increased by lower financial inflows…”
“In the minutes before the shooting began, hundreds of mostly young protesters at a toll gate in Lagos, were sitting on the hot ground on a Tuesday evening, waving Nigerian flags…
“Shola said bodies collapsed to the ground around him as he ran away, “They killed so many innocent souls. I was running away and they were chasing after us. People were dying instantly, as if it was a game.””
“Sudanese police fired tear gas against protesters in different parts of the capital Khartoum, though no casualties have been reported, eyewitnesses told Anadolu Agency.
“Large numbers of police and other security forces have been deployed in the city’s main streets, closing the roads leading to the presidential palace and national army headquarters.”
[Both Sudan and Nigeria suffering from terrible floods and low oil prices as our crises converge.]
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/eyewitnesses-sudanese-police-use-tear-gas-on-protests-/2014344
“Rising food costs are hitting emerging markets with a double whammy: driving millions into hunger and thwarting central banks…
“Global food prices have jumped nearly 8% since May as the pandemic disrupts supply lines and dry weather hits harvests. That faster inflation has forced policy makers from India to Mexico to ease up on monetary stimulus just when their economies need it most.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-price-shock-thwarts-central-060000198.html
“The World Food Program reports food insecurity is increasing worldwide because of the devastating socio-economic impact of COVID-19, with tens of millions of people on the verge of famine.”
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/emergency-food-needs-surge-covid-19-continues-spread
“The pandemic is likely to give the world not just a deep recession, but years of debility.
“To meet the threat of a “long economic Covid”, policymakers must avoid repeating the mistake of withdrawing support too soon, as they did after the 2008 financial crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f9a0c784-712e-4bf9-b994-55f8d63316d9
“According to a UNCTAD report, corporate debt bubble might explode and cause another global financial crisis, especially in the post COVID-19 economy when many companies will face heightened financial stress.
“It said that the most immediate areas of concern lie in the shadow banking system that had been ignored by the post-2010 financial regulations.”
“…the collapse of the financial system and the transition to the new global monetary system has now been announced.
“The preparations made by the Central Banks for the new system by filling their gold deposits, their statements on this issue, and finally the “New Bretton Woods Movement”, which the IMF declared that it should be initiated for the transition to the new digital currency system, are very important details.”
https://www.somagnews.com/global-monetary-institutions-adopt-major-financial-collapse/
“The debt crisis has two modes of resolution.
“It will either unleash mass homelessness and widespread financial ruin or force elites to cancel debts long treated as sacred.”
You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Climate’ thread.
