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World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart said the coronavirus pandemic is turning into a major economic crisis and warned of the possibility of a financial crisis emerging.

““This did not start as a financial crisis but it is morphing into a major economic crisis, with very serious financial consequences…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-16/carmen-reinhart-sees-risk-financial-crisis-emerges-from-pandemic


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The average American has $90,460 in debt—here’s how much debt Americans have at every age…

“In our efforts to keep up with the Joneses (or just get by during this period of economic uncertainty, debt has become a normalized part of the American lifestyle.”

https://www.cnbc.com/select/average-american-debt-by-age/


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“Millions of unemployed Americans faced an income “cliff” in July when the extra $600 in pandemic jobless benefits came to an end.

“But millions more Americans are now facing another — and perhaps more dire — hit to their income as they exhaust all their unemployment options at both the state and federal levels.”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unemployment-running-out-millions-americans/


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Wall Street bank trading boom does little to assuage concerns about lending

“As Wall Street banks reported quarterly results this week, investors wondered about the staying power of the trading bonanza that has floated profits, offsetting problems in traditional lending businesses that have been hurt by the pandemic.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-results-trading/wall-street-bank-trading-boom-does-little-to-assuage-concerns-about-lending-idUSKBN2711K6


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“A double dip [recession for the UK] seems an increasingly realistic possibility,” said economist Robert Wood at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“The bank’s large-scale surveys of households point to increasing fears over wages and jobs.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/16/threat-double-dip-recession-looms-second-wave-hits/


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“The UK’s pub industry, which generated sales of about £23bn before the pandemic, is not one of the country’s largest but it is among its oldest and best known and it is facing its deepest crisis yet…

Estimates suggest more than a quarter of the UK’s 39,700 pubs may not survive the pandemic.”

https://www.ft.com/content/9cae3108-c314-4400-900f-32d789ac3da8


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Financial strains on U.K. borrowers as wage subsidies end and unemployment rises could lead to a spike in defaults on mortgages, credit cards and other loans.

“According a Bank of England survey of lenders, they expect default rates to increase this quarter. The expectations index for both mortgages and unsecured debt has risen to the highest since the financial crisis.”

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/u-k-banks-expect-to-see-a-jump-in-mortgage-loan-defaults-chart


Boris Johnson warns UK to prepare for no-deal Brexit. It could cost his reeling economy $25 billion next year.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/16/business/uk-brexit-deal-economy/index.html


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Moody’s downgrades UK credit rating

““Negative long-term structural dynamics have been exacerbated by the decision to leave the EU and by the UK’s subsequent inability to reach a trade deal with the EU that meaningfully replicates the benefits of EU membership,” Moody’s said.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/16/moodys-downgrades-uk-credit-rating/


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Zambia is in the global spotlight for all the wrong reasons

“The country is now a test case for how the international community will treat nations that can’t meet their commercial debt obligations, even if it’s a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-16/next-africa-zambia-is-focus-of-global-debt-crisis


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Nigeria’s army has warned it could step in against “subversive elements and troublemakers” as the protests against police brutality that have erupted throughout the country over the past week continue.

“Thousands of mainly young people have taken to the streets to protest against the notorious Special Anti-Robbery Squad…”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/oct/15/army-standby-police-brutality-protests-nigeria


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Pakistan opposition starts countrywide protests to oust government

“The protest campaign comes at a time when Pakistan is experiencing an economic crisis, with inflation touching double digits and negative growth. The next general election is scheduled for 2023.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-pakistan-politics-protests-idUKKBN2711ZV


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Thai protesters said they would hold another demonstration on Saturday despite a crackdown by police on more than three months of protests that have targeted the powerful monarchy as well as the government.

“Police used water cannon on protesters for the first time on Friday. They have arrested more than 50 people…”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-thailand-protests/thai-protesters-vow-new-demonstration-despite-crackdown-idUKKBN27206P


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With unrest on all sides, Russia’s regional muscle is being tested

“To the south, the three-decade-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has reignited. To the west, protests calling for Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko’s ouster are well into their second month. And to the east, Kyrgyzstan is facing its third political crisis in 15 years after recent parliamentary election results were annulled.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-nagoro-karabahk-belarus-kyrgyzstan/2020/10/15/2129fcda-0b27-11eb-8719-0df159d14794_story.html


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On anniversary of protests, Chileans brace for fresh demonstrations and violence

“The widespread demonstrations, which began last Oct. 18, saw Chileans take to the streets to protest inequality, inadequate pensions and the country’s deeply criticized health care and education systems. They quickly boiled over into violence that wrought billions of dollars in damage to public infrastructure and private businesses.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-chile-protests-anniversary-preview/on-anniversary-of-protests-chileans-brace-for-fresh-demonstrations-and-violence-idUKKBN271302?il=0


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Despite COVID-19, new wave of Venezuelan migrants heads to Colombia

“The renewed emigration threatens to swell the ranks of the Venezuelan diaspora throughout South America, a refugee crisis of proportions never witnessed in the region.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-venezuela-migrants/despite-covid-19-new-wave-of-venezuelan-migrants-heads-to-colombia-idUKKBN2702J4


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Central Americans edge north as pandemic spurs economic collapse…”

““People migrate because of extreme poverty and violence,” said Ismael Zepeda, a researcher at the Tegucigalpa-based think tank Foro Social de la Deuda Externa de Honduras. “With the economic contraction, poverty is becoming more profound.””

https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-immigration-centralamerica/central-americans-edge-north-as-pandemic-spurs-economic-collapse-idINL4N2H44X9


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Refugees cling to hope of resettlement, even as world slams doors.

Fewer refugees than ever before are likely to be resettled in 2020 even with the number in need at record levels… A major factor is the dramatic cuts to United States resettlement admissions under President Donald Trump.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/16/refugees-cling-to-hope-of-resettlement-even-as-doors-close


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This was the week we witnessed the funeral of austerity [at least for nations that can “afford” it]. Those who used to worship at its altar now urge countries to throw caution to the wind…

“Carmen Reinhart, the eminent economic historian who is now chief economist at the World Bank, recommended countries should borrow heavily during the pandemic.

““While the disease is raging, what else are you going to do?” she asks. “First you worry about fighting the war, then you figure out how to pay for it.”

https://www.ft.com/content/0940e381-647a-4531-8787-e8c7dafbd885


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back on Monday with a ‘Climate’ thread.

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