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Top business leaders around the world say the global economy is experiencing its worst crisis in one hundred years and have called for urgent reforms to be implemented in the G-20 summit hosted by Saudi Arabia in November…

“Yousef Al-Benyan, chairman of the B20, said “the global economy is in its worst state in a century,” adding that “the challenging opportunity is to build back better, with real urgency required from policymakers and business leaders.””

https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-say-global-economy-faces-worst-crisis-2020-10?r=US&IR=T


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A crash in the dollar is likely and it could fall by as much as 35 per cent by the end of 2021.

“The reason: a lethal interplay between a collapse in domestic saving and a gaping current account deficit.”

https://www.ft.com/content/46b1a230-8c6c-4feb-b617-21a520cc201b


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Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. continue to grow amid the coronavirus pandemic as 22 new companies added their names to a growing list of bankruptcies in 2020 in the last two weeks, an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis shows.

“A total of 509 [listed] companies have gone bankrupt this year as of Oct. 4, exceeding the number of filings during any comparable period since 2010.”

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-bankruptcies-surpass-500-mark-as-coronavirus-takes-toll-60607609


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Collapsing levels of trust are devastating America: The events of 2020—the coronavirus pandemic; the killing of George Floyd; militias, social-media mobs, and urban unrest—were like hurricanes that hit in the middle of that earthquake.

“They did not cause the moral convulsion, but they accelerated every trend. They flooded the ravines that had opened up in American society and exposed every flaw.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/collapsing-levels-trust-are-devastating-america/616581/


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British finance minister Rishi Sunak said on Monday that the country’s public finances were vulnerable to small increases in interest rates because of a huge stock of government debt which has rocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

““Now that we have so much debt, it doesn’t take a lot for suddenly ‘yikes’ – we have to come up with X billion pounds a year to pay for higher interest,” Sunak said…”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-sunak-debt-idUKKBN26Q1S6


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New UK car registrations fell 4.4% in September from a year earlier, according to the motor industry. That made it the worst September this century

September is normally second to March as the industry’s most important sales month, because licence plate changes typically prompt a spike in demand.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54415947


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Japan’s two biggest automakers, Toyota and Nissan, will ask Britain to reimburse them for additional custom charges incurred if the UK government fails to reach a Brexit trade deal with the European Union, the Nikkei financial daily reported on Monday.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-japan/toyota-nissan-seek-customs-reimbursement-from-uk-if-brexit-talks-fail-nikkei-idUKKBN26Q1AW


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A bet by investors that Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s new prime minister, was poised to precipitate a wave of consolidation across the country’s “shattered” regional banking sector has begun to sour less than a month since he took power

All of this comes after years of increasingly ominous warnings about the health of Japan’s regional banks, which at the end of last year had more combined assets than the entire Italian banking system ($3tn) but whose businesses were described by the outgoing financial services minister in July as “shattered”.”

https://www.ft.com/content/0f1c1a79-4411-4b24-ae75-0f4988bacfc0


Fresh coronavirus restrictions last month hurt activity in the service sector across much of Europe and parts of Asia, as consumers spent less on everything from eating out to haircuts, a fall that bodes ill for the global economic recovery.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fresh-coronavirus-restrictions-cast-doubt-on-strength-of-economic-recovery-11601895961


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“Global equities look overall fragile as we are entering the winter period. Chances of a second lockdown are gradually increasing, which would lead to a complete disaster for economic fundamentals.

“China credit impulse and excess liquidity have been rising in the past two years, which has usually been a good signal for risky assets. However, China’s stimulus may not be enough to sustain the momentum in the coming months.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377707-china-liquidity-may-not-be-enough-to-fight-winter-depression


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The vast wave of monetary stimulus that has kept emerging economies afloat since the coronavirus pandemic hit earlier this year has begun to ebb, just as pressure mounts on these countries to finance their recovery and their huge build-up of debt.

“The combination risks creating a damaging spiral of falling currencies and rising borrowing costs, triggering debt crises and defaults, economists have warned.”

https://www.ft.com/content/99603ed2-0580-455f-823a-d138685e2b4f


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World Bank chief reiterates call to forgive poor countries’ debts.

David Malpass says private banks, investment funds are not doing enough to help countries struggling due to coronavirus.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/5/world-bank-chief-reiterates-call-to-forgive-poor-countries-debts


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Hundreds take to Algiers streets despite ban on protests:

Demonstrators commemorate 1988 pro-democracy movement, denounce army role and demand deeper reforms… In March, the government banned street protests, saying the move was necessary to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/5/hundreds-protest-in-algiers-despite-ban-on-gatherings


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Fractured by internal political conflicts, confusing instructions and a lack of public trust in the government, Israel seems to be fraying further under a second national lockdown as the country struggles to cope with a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths that, relative to the size of the population, are among the worst in the world.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-lockdown.html


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As we hurtle into autumn, families across Lebanon are bracing for an unfathomably bleak winter, where many will starve and struggle to warm themselves…

“More than half the country now lives below the poverty line, a rate which is rising. In Beirut, many are still living in the bombed-out shells of their homes.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/lebanon-financial-crisis-subsidy-cuts-winter-foreign-reserves-b778578.html


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The Syrian government has introduced rules limiting the amount of subsidised bread available per person at bakeries…

…putting larger families at risk of starvation as the country’s crippling economic crisis deepens.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/05/syria-introduces-limits-on-subsidised-bread-as-economic-crisis-bites


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Belarus police have detained 317 people and deployed water cannon during mass protests against President Alexander Lukashenko.

“The opposition says Mr Lukashenko must quit, as his 9 August re-election was widely seen as fraudulent.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54420511


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People protesting against the results of a parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan have broken into a parliamentary complex and security headquarters in the capital...

“Earlier, at least 120 people were taken to hospital with injuries in the capital, Bishkek, after clashes broke out between police and protesters, health authorities said on Monday.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/05/kyrgyzstan-election-120-taken-to-hospital-following-result-protest


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Could the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict spill over into Iran? Azerbaijani Turks are Iran’s largest ethnic minority but they are increasingly protesting in support of Azerbaijan in its ongoing conflict with Armenia. This is likely to concern Tehran.

“Protests in support of Azerbaijan have rocked several cities in Iran including the capital Tehran and the northwestern city of Tabriz.”

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/could-the-azerbaijani-armenian-conflict-spill-over-into-iran-40303


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Humour, resignation, despair: Living with inflation in Iran:

““Last week, I examined a young woman with a benign lump in her breast at the clinic,” a doctor wrote on Twitter. “I told her, ‘Do another sonography in six months, it’s unlikely it will grow, but if it does you better operate’. She came back and said I want to operate now. When I asked the reason, she said, ‘Now I can pay for it, in six months I might not be able to’.””

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/5/hldhumour-resignation-despair-living-with-inflation-in-iran


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Iraq’s overarching message is that steadily pauperised and desperate Arab citizens who peacefully seek a total overhaul of their political systems will continue to face an increasingly militarised ruling elite that offers minor reform gestures without ceding any real power.

“As these and other Arab lands settle into a long stalemate, society, economy, and statehood all steadily deteriorate and could collapse.”

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2020/10/6/a-new-national-identity-born-of-protest-and-anger


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Suicides rise after virus puts squeeze on India’s middle class.

“Even before Covid-19 hit, white-collar workers were under immense pressure as India’s growth stalled. Suicides among professionals have climbed for two consecutive years, averaging 23 a day in 2019, according to the National Crime Records Bureau.”

https://www.ft.com/content/abb1e033-28fa-428d-8882-935aad2052df


Indonesian workers have launched protests in several cities to oppose the passage of a controversial new jobs law that the government says is vital to attract investment but critics view as too pro-business…”

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/6/indonesian-workers-stage-protests-against-new-labour-laws


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Dr. Pailin Chuchottaworn, head of an economic steering panel has told the Thai government reopen Thailand now order or face a total economic collapse

“Dr. Pailin said that despite the lockdown having been gradually eased six times, the country’s output would not improve unless the country reopens…”

https://www.chiangraitimes.com/economy-business/government-told-open-thailand-now-or-face-economic-collapse/


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A Chilean police officer has been detained on suspicion of attempted murder after he allegedly threw a teenage protester from a bridge during protests on Friday, the country’s Prosecutor’s Office has said.

“Videos purporting to show the incident at an anti-government protest in capital city Santiago have gone viral in Chile, sparking anger and a fresh round of demonstrations over the weekend.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/05/americas/chile-protests-police-boy-incident-intl/index.html


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Violent protests sparked by the murder of a high-profile legal scholar are threatening to push Haiti into a spiral of instability, Special Representative Helen La Lime told the Security Council on Monday…

““The slaying of Maître Dorval constitutes a tragic loss for Haitian society as he represented an example of civic engagement and commitment to the promotion of the rule of law,” she said…”

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1074702


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Bonds were a safety net when stocks fell, Investors fret they aren’t anymore.

“A reliable link between stocks and government bonds that defined a popular investment strategy for decades has broken this year. Some investors worry the rupture is permanent.”

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/bonds-were-a-safety-net-when-stocks-fell-investors-fret-they-aren-t-anymore-11601958560466.html


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Global debt substantially increased after the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC), amounting to more than three times world GDP in 2018. Nonfinancial corporate debt was a main contributor to this expansion.

Practitioners and academics have increasingly raised concerns that the larger firm indebtedness could become a threat to the global economy and trigger a financial crisis comparable to the GFC. The COVID-19 pandemic has only heightened these fears.”

https://blogs.worldbank.org/allaboutfinance/growth-global-corporate-debt


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back with a ‘Climate’ round-up tomorrow.

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