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The best is already over for a global economic recovery that started off at a sprint and is turning into a slog.

“That’s the warning from Wall Street economists heading into the final months of a traumatic year. Some $20 trillion in stimulus from governments and central banks has pulled the world’s economies most of the way back to pre-pandemic levels. But for multiple reasons, the last stretch is set to be the hardest…

“With their revenues squeezed, businesses could face problems repaying debts — leading to more bankruptcies, and making lenders more reluctant to extend credit even to viable firms.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/the-global-economic-recovery-has-slowed-from-a-bounce-to-a-grind


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Turmoil in money market mutual funds sparked by the coronavirus pandemic shows that decade-old reforms to the $4.4 trillion (£3.42 trillion) industry may not be enough to avert major outflows during a future crisis, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Justin Muzinich said on Tuesday.

The remarks were the latest to raise expectations a new round of rulemaking may be on the way for money funds…”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-treasury-moneymarkets/update-2-money-market-turmoil-in-march-shows-past-reforms-may-be-insufficient-u-s-treasury-official-idUKL1N2GQ1A2


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2020 Retail Bankruptcies Could Outpace 2008 Financial Crisis Aftermath

“This is yet another example of the Covid-19 pandemic speeding up trends that were chugging along before.”

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2020/09/29/2020-retail-bankruptcies-outpace-2008-financial-crisis-aftermath


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“Employee burnout is on the rise given what can seem like an endless number of stressors at work, at home and in managing daily life during a global health crisis.

“In the U.S., which is experiencing an economic collapse and unemployment crisis not seen in decades, people who remain on the job are weathering a new type of stress the longer the pandemic goes on: survivor’s guilt in the workplace.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/workers-feel-survivors-guilt-as-pandemic-continues-and-layoffs-deepen.html


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During the same March to April time period that saw billionaires’ gains spike, more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs… eight million more people are [still] unemployed today than were jobless in February.

“The same price shifts that made luxuries like food delivery cheaper have caused the inexpensive grocery store items that poor households rely on to become pricier.”

https://time.com/5894969/the-recession-isnt-over/


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Walt Disney has announced it will lay off 28,000 employees, mostly at its US theme parks.

“Disney cited the parks’ limited visitor capacity and uncertainty about how long the coronavirus pandemic would last as reasons for the layoffs.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54350423


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American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. will go forward for now with a total of more than 32,000 job cuts Thursday after lawmakers were unable to agree on a broad coronavirus-relief package, the airlines told employees.

“The airlines’ moves put more pressure on lawmakers who have negotiated on and off for months over an aid package…”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-airline-jobs-hang-in-the-balance-as-lawmakers-debate-aid-11601480824


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The collapse in aviation caused by the coronavirus pandemic could wipe out 46 million jobs worldwide, according to new research that highlights just how damaging a prolonged downturn in air travel and tourism is for the global economy.

“The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), a Geneva-based coalition of aviation industry organizations, said in the report published Wednesday that more than half of the 88 million jobs supported by aviation could be lost…”

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/30/business/coronavirus-aviation-jobs-atag/index.html


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Autumn has arrived in the northern hemisphere, and with it a fresh slump in commercial flights that will alarm the world’s oil refineries as they struggle with a glut of jet fuel that’s crushing profitability

“The drop in flights would also alarm Saudi Arabia and Russia, the leaders of the OPEC+ alliance…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/fresh-drop-in-commercial-flights-adds-to-jet-fuel-glut-concerns


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Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank 7 percent in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, while unemployment soared to a record high, government figures released on Wednesday showed.

“The oil sector of the world’s largest crude exporter shrank 5.3 percent from April through June as it was knocked sideways by the coronavirus pandemic…”

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/9/30/saudi-economy-shrunk-by-7-percent-in-q2-as-unemployment-soars


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A storm is coming’: Iraqis vow to rekindle protest movement on anniversary

“The demonstrators demanded jobs, better services, an end to endemic corruption and an overhaul to the sectarian political party system in place since 2003.”

https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/a-storm-is-coming-iraqis-vow-to-rekindle-protest-movement-on-anniversary-1.1085720


A wave of demonstrations has erupted across Venezuela as angry citizens flout lockdown restrictions to demand an end to worsening shortages of everything from electricity and water to fuel and household supplies.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/venezuela-shortages-protests


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Nigeria needs to make the best of its oil wealth before it becomes worthless, the federal government has warned, adding to a growing concern about the future of the world’s most used and most traded commodity.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Nigerian-Government-Oil-Could-Become-Worthless.html


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French energy giant Total SE (formerly Total S.A.) spread more doom and gloom into the oil markets today, foretelling of the oil industry’s ultimate horror—peak oil demand.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Another-Oil-Major-Sees-Peak-Oil-Demand-On-The-Horizon.html


Royal Dutch Shell has said it plans to cut 7,000 to 9,000 jobs as it responds to challenges including the slump in oil demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54351815


The UK economy suffered a record-breaking collapse in the second quarter, slumping 19.8 per cent as the coronavirus pandemic hammered demand and left swathes of the economy unable to operate.”

https://www.cityam.com/uk-economy-collapsed-nearly-20-per-cent-in-second-quarter/


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More than a third of UK employers plan to make staff redundant over the next three months, according to research warning of a cascade of job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

“With a month to go until the end of the government furlough scheme on 31 October, 37% of more than 2,000 managers polled by YouGov said they were likely to make staff redundant by the end of the year.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/01/more-than-third-uk-employers-planning-make-staff-redundant-job-losses


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Financial services firms operating in the U.K. have shifted about 7,500 employees and more than 1.2 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) of assets to the European Union ahead of Brexit — with more likely to follow in coming weeks, according to EY.

“About 400 relocations were announced in the past month alone…”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/brexit-prompts-7-500-finance-jobs-1-6-trillion-to-leave-u-k


Eurozone economic confidence rises at slowest pace for five months… adding to signs that the recovery in the bloc’s pandemic-stricken economy is losing momentum.”

https://www.ft.com/content/9f79dc96-dd5a-40ba-b53c-eed1cb2eb781


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The European Central Bank could be about to tweak its main policy objective as it combats the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis

““In the current environment of lower inflation, the concerns we face are different (than in 2003) and this needs to be reflected in our inflation aim,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference on Wednesday.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/ecb-lagarde-inflation-target-could-change-amid-policy-review.html


Italy Sept EU-harmonised CPI falls to -0.9% y/y, far below forecasts as deflation deepens.”

https://in.reuters.com/article/italy-sept-eu-harmonised-cpi-falls-to-09/italy-sept-eu-harmonised-cpi-falls-to-09-y-y-far-below-forecasts-as-deflation-deepens-idINR1N2E2009


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Israel has passed a law that bans mass protest during the country’s coronavirus lockdown in a move government opponents have claimed exploits the health crisis to suppress demonstrations calling for Benjamin Netanyahu to resign as prime minister.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/anti-democratic-law-israel-bans-mass-protest-lockdown-tightens-netanyahu


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Angry protesters stormed into a bank in downtown Beirut on Wednesday to demand that their savings, which has been trapped for months, be given back to them.

“The National News Agency said the protesters forced their way into the bank’s headquarters without naming it.”

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/275379-protesters-storm-bank-in-downtown-beirut


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One of Thailand’s most high-profile critics said the government was facing a “perfect storm” of protests and economic distress caused by the coronavirus pandemic, predicting it would not last the full term after losing the trust of its people.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/thai-government-has-lost-public-s-trust-banned-leader-says


Protests and Covid leave Hong Kong stuck in recession… Hong Kong’s economy was already in recession when the pandemic hit in January.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/protests-and-covid-leave-hong-kong-stuck-in-recession


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China’s yuan records best performance against dollar since 2008… The Chinese yuan has been making a comeback against the dollar. Is that because China has been better than the U.S. at managing the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic?

“That’s at least what some analysts think has been happening, following the yuan’s surging value over the past few months.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-yuan-records-best-performance-against-dollar-since-2008-11601509545


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China’s central bank and banking and insurance regulator set up a counter-cyclical capital buffer mechanism on Wednesday to help banks fend off risk and to keep the financial system stable.

“The buffer aims to protect the banking sector from periods of excess aggregate credit growth that could imply rising financial risk.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-cenbank/china-launches-counter-cyclical-capital-buffer-to-help-banks-fend-off-risk-idUKKBN26L2RL


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Business sentiment in Japan is recovering slower than expected in a worrying sign that the bounce back from Covid-19 will take longer than hoped. The closely watched Tankan survey of large manufacturers rose by only seven points from -34 to -27 in the third quarter, compared with consensus expectations of -23.

“The figures suggest Japanese companies are still struggling and the shock from Covid-19 is calcifying into a more traditional economic downturn.”

https://www.ft.com/content/7bab0e26-1ce2-4723-9057-96f664430652


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The Tokyo Stock Exchange suspended share trading for the full day on Thursday as a glitch in its electronic trading system caused the worst outage ever suffered by the world’s third-largest stock market.

“The shutdown frustrated investors looking to buy back shares after the first U.S. presidential debate, and could tarnish the exchange’s credibility…”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-stocks-tse/tokyo-stock-exchange-suspends-days-trade-after-worst-ever-system-glitch-idUSKBN26M4F8


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Brazil’s unemployment rate hit a record 13.8 percent from May to July as Latin America’s biggest economy suffered the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to official figures released Wednesday.

“The rate is the highest since the data set began in 2012, and two percentage points above the same period last year.”

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brazil-jobless-rate-hits-record-155130752.html


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Nearly half of Argentina’s population was living in poverty in the second quarter, a sharp increase from last year, as the country’s longstanding economic crisis deepened due to the coronavirus pandemic.

““There is greater general poverty. We are all a little poorer – we already were last year – and now with greater inequality,” said UCA researcher Agustín Salvia.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-poverty/poverty-batters-almost-half-of-argentines-due-to-crisis-plus-pandemic-researchers-idUKKBN26L31L


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Faced with a collapse in tourism and the worst economic crisis in decades, some Cuban entrepreneurs are shaking up their business models, trying to create opportunity during pandemic times.

“‘El Jibaro’ restaurant has started bottling its own line of cocktails. Co-owner David Roque says ‘ready-to-drink’ cocktails to go are a new concept in Cuba.”

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cuban-entrepreneurs-reinvent-businesses-survive-114549006.html


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More than 2-million South Africans lost their jobs in the second quarter, bringing into sharp focus the devastating economic blow of one of the harshest Covid-19 lockdowns in the world.

“…the total number of jobless people now stands at 14.1-million — essentially one in four of SA’s 60-million population.”

https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/fm-fox/2020-10-01-latest-horror-42-jobless/


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Most major housing markets won’t keep up with consumer price inflation in 2021 and are faced with multiple downside risks despite rising strongly this year amid the coronavirus pandemic and rock-bottom interest rates, Reuters polls showed.

“Over 1 million people have died and more than 33 million have been infected by the coronavirus which has led to supply chain disruptions, stalled economic activity, pushed the world economy into its deepest recession and left many millions jobless.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-property-poll-idUKKBN26M3YY


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Global funds recommended cutting equity allocations to the lowest since early 2010 and increasing bond holdings to their highest since then, according to a September Reuters poll which found a correction in world stocks before year-end was likely.

“Over 70% of 21 funds who provided a view said a correction in world stock markets by end-year was likely.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-funds-global-poll/global-funds-hold-even-more-bonds-in-a-world-fraught-with-risk-idUKKBN26L28V


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a climate round-up.

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