Epidemics are often followed by unrest.

[This one was *preceded* by rising unrest, so I think it is a reasonable assumption that we will see more and worse, as the economic fall-out from the virus and the lockdowns exacerbates those extant tensions].

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“If you have not been hearing much of the French Gilets Jaunes or of the Italian Sardines in the last few months, it’s because “the social and psychological unrest arising from the epidemic tends to crowd out the conflicts of the pre-epidemic period, but at the same time, it constitutes the fertile ground on which global protest may return more aggressively once the epidemic is over,” writes Massimo Morelli, Professor of Political Science at Bocconi…”

https://phys.org/news/2020-09-epidemics-unrest.html


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“In the United States, the catastrophic economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic has forced increasing numbers of young adults to move in with their parents.

A recent Pew Research Center analysis has now found that the share of 18-to-29-year-olds living in the US with a parent has reached its highest level since the Great Depression era.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/09/07/highest-number-of-american-young-adults-live-with-their-parents-since-the-great-depression-infographic/#7d7453df1f49


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US banks are increasingly worried about being repaid on loans secured against commercial property, as offices, malls and hotels continue to stand empty.

“The darkening outlook of banks is laid bare by disclosures on so-called criticised loans, which are flashing warning signals about a borrower’s ability to pay.”

https://www.ft.com/content/0865e993-d454-40d0-af57-9a75c7016177


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One in 10 UK businesses that have taken on debts from government-backed coronavirus schemes could go bust

“Some 42pc of companies have used the schemes during the pandemic, and more than a quarter report that they may have to scale back operations to repay them, a poll by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) with banking group TSB found.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/08/one-10-companies-have-taken-covid-debts-could-go/


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Ending the job retention scheme as the economy heads into a bleak winter solves nothing

“Some numbers… to consider: there are 32.9m workers in the UK, and according to the Office for National Statistics’ latest survey, 11pc of them were still furloughed as of the end of August. That’s 3.6m workers currently facing a very uncertain future after October.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/08/halloween-jobs-horror-awaits-unless-sunak-u-turns-furlough/


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The government doesn’t need the Bank of England to provide financial forecasts at the moment – the supermarkets are doing it for them.

“Today Morrisons became the latest retailer to announce it was cutting the prices of hundreds of products across its stores, with CEO David Potts pledging the reductions to help cash-strapped Brits were “here to stay”.

“It represents the latest in a series of moves by the mults to reset prices ahead of what they clearly think will be a long and drawn-out recession.”

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/the-grocer-blog-daily-bread/supermarkets-price-cuts-put-them-on-collision-course-with-suppliers/648089.article


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Britain went into Tuesday’s fresh round of Brexit trade talks with a warning to the European Union that it was ramping up preparations to leave without an agreement as both sides bickered over rules governing nearly $1 trillion in commerce…

“European diplomats said Britain was playing a game of Brexit chicken by threatening to collapse the process and challenging Brussels to compromise first. Some fear Johnson may view a no-deal exit as useful distraction from the coronavirus crisis.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-frost/brexit-poker-begins-uk-ramps-up-no-deal-preparations-idUKKBN25Y23A?il=0


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Ireland has officially entered recession after the COVID-19 crisis resulted in its economy shrinking by a record 6.1% in the second quarter.

“The country’s domestic industries suffered the most severe hit.”

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ireland-confirms-recession-as-it-posts-record-quarterly-slump-12066062


Berlin’s long-delayed BER airport is set to go bankrupt by the end of October 2020 unless it receives a cash injection of €300 million, according to a report.”

https://www.thelocal.de/20200907/berlin-airport-bankrupt-by-october-without-300-million-cash-injection


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Fitch Ratings on Tuesday slashed its FY21 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for India to a contraction of 10.5% from a contraction of 5% estimated in June

“India Ratings, the India arm of Fitch, however, is [even] more pessimistic about the Indian economy…”

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/indian-economy-may-see-its-worst-contraction-in-fy21-at-10-5-fitch-11599544143937.html


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China and India accuse each other of opening fire as border tensions rise.

“Nuclear-armed neighbours swap accusations after clash in disputed Himalayan region.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/08/china-india-border-soldiers-pangong-lake


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China’s export performance, boosted by record shipments of medical supplies and robust demand for electronic products, has not been as severely affected by the global slowdown as some analysts had feared.

But imports unexpectedly slipped further into contraction, suggesting softer domestic demand.”

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/chinas-aug-exports-rise-at-fastest-pace-in-nearly-15-years-but-imports-slump


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Thailand tourism collapse poses existential crisis for airlines

“Data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) shows that from April, which was when the Thai government imposed strict travel restrictions in and out of the country, the number of international flights plummeted to levels unseen in recent history.”

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/thailand-tourism-collapse-poses-existential-crisis-for-airlines/140059.article


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Japan’s economy sank deeper into its worst postwar contraction in the second quarter as the coronavirus jolted businesses more than initially thought, underscoring the daunting task the new prime minister faces…

“Other data put that challenge in perspective, with household spending and wages falling in July as the impact of the pandemic kept consumption frail even after lockdown measures were lifted in May.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-gdp/japans-worst-postwar-economic-downturn-could-force-new-leader-to-boost-stimulus-idUSKBN25Z00R


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Melbourne businesses have hit out at the Victorian government’s staged coronavirus recovery plan, accusing it of being incomplete, unrealistic, and potentially devastating for businesses reliant on much-needed Christmas trade.

“Struggling operators are now considering whether they will need to cut jobs…”

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/retailers-are-angry-businesses-mull-job-losses-financial-pain-20200907-p55t7l.html


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“Early on in the pandemic, Ecuador took the lead with the highest number of COVID-19 related deaths in Latin America. Now, it is leading the region in unemployment. A shocking 85 percent of Ecuadorans are now either unemployed or in precarious jobs.”

Video:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/ecuador-faces-worst-unemployment-crisis-latin-america-200907161139845.html


Global economic disruption a big threat to low-income countries:

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“The collapse in key commodity prices, most notably oil and minerals (although not gold); the effective closure of key export service sectors, including tourism; the sudden stops to new debt and FDI flows; and the drying-up of remittance flows constitute an external demand shock that is both unprecedented in scale (at least outside situations of outright conflict) and is highly correlated across countries [in sub-Saharan Africa].”

https://voxeu.org/article/impact-global-economic-disruption-big-threat-low-income-countries-direct-effects-covid-19


Hedge funds grow sceptical of oil market rebalancing:

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“Hedge fund sentiment towards crude and products turned sharply more negative at the end of August amid signs of a slow post-epidemic recovery in oil consumption and persistently high inventories.

“Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of almost 40 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Sept. 1.

“The rate of selling equalled the week to July 28 as the fastest since mid-March, when the epidemic was raging unchecked and major oil exporters were engaged in unrestricted volume warfare.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-global-kemp/rpt-column-hedge-funds-grow-sceptical-of-oil-market-rebalancing-kemp-idUSL8N2G42LO


You can read the previous ‘Economic’ thread here and visit my Patreon page here. I’ll be back tomorrow with a climate round-up.

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