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“Between the US-China trade war, Brexit, the coronavirus and global recession, the world has entered a dangerous fusion of risk. If global leaders are lucky, the illusion of perpetual policy plenty can last long enough for sustainable recovery to finally take hold. If policymakers are unlucky, the show could come apart, with ugly consequences. There is no turning back.

Global capitalism is reaching its limits and our future prosperity is on the line. Hopefully, there are still tenable backup options just in case. If not, we are all in trouble.”

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096703/signs-recovery-are-welcome-global-economy-still-course-crash


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“Apartment rent payments have largely held up in August although several property executives warned that weaknesses were emerging and that a failure to extend federal aid programmes could prove calamitous.

As of August 6, 79.3 per cent of US households made a full or partial rent payment… property executives noted that the proportion of renters who used credit cards to make their payments was increasing, one sign of growing financial strain. They also argued that the federal aid had kept many families afloat as jobless claims have surged due to the pandemic, and should be extended.”

https://www.ft.com/content/94d4c81f-1d35-4487-93ee-888550a3380d


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Corporate bankruptcies — more than any other factor — stand to halt the stock market’s steady run higher, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said on Monday

“…many companies still face major insolvency risks, and a chain reaction of corporate defaults could revive a bearish slump, the famed economist said.”

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bankruptcies-biggest-risk-prices-recession-el-erian-2020-8-1029488709#


Struggling UK companies have warned they will be pushed closer to collapse by the resumption of business rates collection by councils after months of forbearance.

“A number of councils have started chasing businesses for unpaid rates bills, as well as residential tenants for council tax, without which they say they may struggle to deliver their services.”

https://www.ft.com/content/e692bc6d-942f-439f-a4ff-ca8cb3d5e464


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Company payrolls have fallen by 730,000 since the start of the coronavirus crisis lockdown as the UK braces for a feared acceleration in unemployment.

“Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a leap of 81,000 last month alone, despite continuing support for employers via government loan vehicles and the furlough scheme.”

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-730-000-have-lost-their-job-since-lockdown-began-12046850


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UK businesses are in more debt than at any point during the past 13 years, as struggling firms continue to borrow a “staggering amount” to survive the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Business lending is expected to grow by more than 14% in 2020, according to economic forecasters at the EY Item Club — significantly more than the 2% increase seen in 2019.”

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-uk-business-debt-levels-highest-in-13-years-075104583.html


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Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanouskaya has joined her children in neighbouring Lithuania after two nights of clashes following the contested re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko

“Helmeted police fired tear gas, rubber bullets and stun grenades and used batons to disperse thousands of people in Minsk in a second night of violence.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-belarus-election/belarusian-opposition-leader-tikhanouskaya-safe-in-lithuania-after-clashes-idUKKCN2570SO


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There are only few options for the development of the current economic situation in Turkey.

“One of the options is for Turkey to gain financial support to be able to deal with the capital outflow, whilst stopping the dollarization of the economy. Otherwise, it will face a set of sharp devaluation of the Lira, inflation, and probably a state default.”

https://communalnews.com/is-turkey-on-the-verge-of-economic-collapse/


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Lebanon is facing the genuine prospect of economic collapse.

“Since the financial crisis officially began in October 2019 the price on many basic food items, including meat, sugar and bread have increased by a third. Now the Lebanese pound has lost 80 per cent of its value. According to an estimate from Lebanon’s social affairs minister, 75 per cent of Lebanese are facing poverty. This is how revolutions start.”

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lebanon-s-existential-crisis


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“We’ve had plenty of economic shocks since coronavirus struck. Jobs figures, GDP stats and companies going bust. But if there’s one measure to show the state we all find ourselves in then look no further than the Saudi Aramco results which came out yesterday.

“The company’s income dropped by 73% over April, May and June this year as the world’s oil consumption ground to a halt.”

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/saudi-aramco-s-results-economic-shock-this-year-a4521201.html


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Stressed loans totalling ₹5.7 trillion may not be eligible for the proposed one-time debt recast aimed at saving borrowers affected by the coronavirus outbreak, three Indian bankers said.

“These are so-called special mention accounts (SMAs) where repayments were already late by over 30 days on 1 March, Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) cut-off date to be eligible for the new scheme.”

https://www.livemint.com/industry/banking/banks-in-a-spot-as-most-bad-loans-out-of-recast-ambit-11597108251779.html


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China’s banking industry earnings slumped the most in at least a decade in the second quarter as bad loans climbed and the government told lenders to sacrifice $211 billion in profit this year to alleviate the worst economic slump in 40 years…

“The industry’s soured loans climbed for the sixth straight quarter, to 2.7 trillion yuan, the highest in more than a decade.”

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/china-bank-profits-slump-after-state-order-to-bail-out-economy


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When it comes to buying food for daily meals, Chinese consumers are increasingly being forced to swallow unaffordable prices for two staple products – so-called flying pigs and rocketing eggs. Supply-side problems have sent the price of pork surging this year…

“Last month, pork prices rose by 85.7 per cent on-year and expanded 10.3 per cent from June, new data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The price of pork has more than doubled in the first seven months of the year from the same period in 2019.”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3096777/chinese-consumers-grapple-flying-pigs-and-rocketing-eggs


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Singapore’s record recession was deeper than first thought in the second quarter, data showed on Tuesday, signalling a lengthy path to recovery as the coronavirus pandemic dealt a major blow to Asia’s trade-reliant economies…

““The painful truth is this – we are not returning to a pre-COVID world. Recovery will be some time yet,” said trade minister Chan Chun Sing.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-singapore-economy-gdp/singapore-warns-of-slow-recovery-as-virus-slams-asias-exporters-idUKKCN257003


Indonesia’s economy contracted for the first time since the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis more than two decades ago, as movement restrictions to contain the coronavirus outbreak took a toll on Southeast Asia’s largest economy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-05/indonesia-s-gdp-shrinks-5-32-first-contraction-in-two-decades


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Beyond the health and economic crises of Covid-19, the global pandemic has the potential to cause political instability and undermine state security across the Pacific, the region’s chief diplomat has warned.

“Dame Meg Taylor, secretary general of the Pacific Islands Forum, said the region’s economies were struggling with the virus-induced shocks, and a prolonged crisis could worsen existing problems of hunger, poor healthcare, and state fragility.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/pacific-states-face-instability-hunger-and-slow-road-to-covid-recovery-dame-meg-taylor


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Bolivia’s government said on Monday it had ordered police and military to protect key installations and the transport of medical oxygen after clashes broke out over protests and roadblocks by opposition supporters demanding a quick election

“The standoff threatens to convulse the landlocked country and revive memories of last year’s deadly clashes following a disputed election that led to the resignation of Morales, dozens of people being killed and buildings being set on fire.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bolivia-election-clashes/bolivia-protests-rattle-political-truce-as-military-mobilized-idUKKCN2562QO


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“In an interview by Successful Farming from his office in Rome, Italy, Ambassador Tom raised an alarm that he’s calling the “crisis after the crisis:”

“…warning that the number of food-insecure people – they feed 130 million people a day today – could double in the next year.”

https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/crisis-after-the-crisi-of-world-hunger-looms


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The COVID-19 pandemic is making the world worse in lots of ways. One of the more unexpected ways is that the already difficult task of ending modern slavery is even more challenging…. desperate workers will be more likely to accept risky job offers or high-interest loans to survive, only to end up trapped in exploitative situations.

“Companies, anxious to ramp up production after months of lost income, may be more willing to hire the cheapest labor available, including from unethical recruiters, and to skip labor inspections and other oversight measures—thereby enabling human traffickers to thrive.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/10/as-the-global-economy-melts-down-human-trafficking-is-booming/


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The main driver of the sharp rise in international migration is a very severe contraction in the developing economies around the world.

“From India to Latin America and passing through Africa… The UN estimates that close to half a billion people will be or have already been pushed below the poverty line.”

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1716931


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