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The world economic outlook has dimmed again, with still-rising coronavirus infections and the risk of renewed lockdowns increasing the chances that any rebound will reverse course, according to Reuters polls of over 500 economists globally…

““We expect the economic reality of the virus to start catching up with businesses across the globe soon,” said Jan Lambregts, global head financial markets research at Rabobank.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-poll/as-pandemic-rages-on-world-economic-recovery-looks-ever-more-shaky-reuters-poll-idUSKCN24W01B


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An economy badly battered by the coronavirus shrank at a record 32.9% annual pace in the second quarter, underscoring just how big a hole the U.S. finds itself in as it labors to recover from the deepest recession in American history…

“Previously GDP had never shrunk by more than 10% on an annualized basis in any quarter since the government began keeping track shortly after World War Two.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-suffers-titanic-329-plunge-in-2nd-quarter-gdp-shows-and-points-to-drawn-out-recovery-2020-07-30?mod=article_inline


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This unconscionable withdrawal of support [for the US unemployed] comes as the federal eviction moratorium on federally backed properties has expired, while a number of state and local eviction moratoriums are set to expire soon.

“These two expirations are threatening to collide and make millions of people homeless in the middle of a global pandemic.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/millions-of-americans-risk-homelessness-if-the-600-unemployment-benefit-ends


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At a congressional hearing this month, extremism researcher J.J. MacNab delivered a warning: “There is a potential street war brewing.”

“MacNab cited the dangerous mix of armed factions squaring off at protests around the United States.”

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/30/896770081/analysts-say-armed-groups-at-protests-raise-specter-of-a-street-war


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“This economy is bad. It is not on the verge of recovery, but Wall Street has recovered. The S&P 500 is within 5% of its peak and the DJIA has risen about 40% in four months…

“…when it comes to the markets, remember that what Wall Street doesn’t know will hurt us.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/07/30/the-economic-crash-what-wall-street-doesnt-know-will-hurt-us/#560d3505337a


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Corporate America is finding it hard to kick the share buyback habit, even after the US slipped into its worst recession in decades

“Updates showed that some of the largest US multinationals continued to buy back their own stock or even accelerated stock repurchases.”

https://www.ft.com/content/1c924be0-5bc0-4eba-a088-b98b13080c04


The plunge in real interest rates is bad news for stocks, if historical relationships between the two hold.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-history-of-very-low-interest-rates-can-tell-investors-11596106350


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“After the U.S. dollar was removed from the gold convertibility, Debt began to climb rapidly and, during the Great Financial Crisis, cumulative Debt soared past cumulative GDP and has since gone parabolic…

“Since 1982, if you backed out Debt from the equation, the economy would have actually been shrinking.If we back out just the Federal Debt alone from GDP, it would have been negative in most quarters since 2008.

“This has been a global phenomenon. Globally, GDP produced from Debt has declined on average over 11% in comparison to 2009…

“…it’s possible that we may have crossed the secular, systemic Rubicon into a new paradigm in which the expansion of money supply has no effect, or even a negative effect, on GDP growth.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4362396-debt-financialization-gross-domestic-product-and-systemic-paradigm-shift


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Mexico’s economy contracted 17.3 per cent in the second quarter compared with the previous three months, putting it on course to be one of the biggest emerging market casualties of the coronavirus pandemic.

It is the fifth quarterly contraction in a row.”

https://www.ft.com/content/1e25c567-66c3-44e0-86ed-54805a5d6503


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In the first half of the year, Pemex increased its net debt by 26.1pc, to $105.5bn, while posting a $26.4bn net income loss.

“Currency devaluation and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on global energy demand combined to wreak havoc on company profits.”

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/corporate/finance/2020/pemex-debt-strategy-at-risk-of-unravelling


Demonstrators in northern Mexico have burned several government vehicles, blocked railway tracks and set afire a government office and highway tollbooths to protest water payments to the United States.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/vehicles-burned-in-mexico-to-protest-us-water-payment/2020/07/30/92705a8c-d2c5-11ea-826b-cc394d824e35_story.html


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“Britain’s economy has begun to repair the damage from the coronavirus lockdown as restrictions are gradually lifted, despite mounting concern over the long-term damage to the jobs market, according to a Guardian analysis…

“…the hit to UK employment and household finances is gathering pace.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/30/uk-economic-revival-jobs-concerns-grow-lockdown-easing


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A so-called no-deal Brexit, meaning the United Kingdom parting company completely with the European Union without any trade deal, is looking increasingly likely.

“Time is running out for the EU and the UK to agree to any sort of framework for a Brexit trade deal…”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/uk-fishing-rights-focus-no-deal-brexit-200730125844283.html


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“Britain’s leading lenders are in a “fragile state” and the Bank of England’s supervision of the financial sector has “turned out to be a disaster, again”, a think tank has said.

“The Institute of Economic Affairs dismissed claims that banks were strong enough to survive a more severe financial crisis than the last as “hogwash”. Oversight of the capital they hold includes “more holes than a piece of Swiss cheese”, it claims.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lenders-more-fragile-than-before-crash-rbxpnrtkk


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France’s economy contracted by a record 13.8 percent in the second quarter under the impact of coronavirus lockdowns, the national statistics institute INSEE said on Friday

“The second quarter figure means the French economy has been shrinking for three consecutive quarters and continues to be in recession.” [ie it was shrinking *before* the pandemic.]

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200731/frances-economy-contracted-by-record-138-percent-during-lockown


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It’s an astounding figure: minus 10.1%. Never before in Germany’s postwar history has the country’s economy slumped as sharply as in the second quarter of 2020. This is a historic day

“…there’s another problem: The number of companies with high debts and low profits is currently increasing dramatically, not only in Germany but also in other European countries and the US. In other words: The profits will not be enough to pay the interest due.”

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economic-growth-will-not-return-fast/a-54378657


ffGerman rail group Deutsche Bahn said Thursday it has plunged into its deepest financial crisis with a huge first half loss of 3.7 billion euros as the coronavirus pandemic slammed the brakes on travel.”

https://www.thelocal.de/20200730/virus-pushes-deutsche-bahn-into-worst-ever-financial-crisis


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“Anti-government protesters have occupied two key crossroads in central Sofia, threatening to block traffic until the conservative government they accuse of corruption resigns.

Thousands of people have rallied for three weeks in the Bulgarian capital and other cities in the EU member’s biggest protests in years.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/bulgarian-anti-government-protesters-block-central-sofia-200730102635205.html


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The Belarusian authorities have announced the arrest of 32 Russian mercenaries… Their alleged goal is to destabilise the situation leading up to the August 9 presidential elections.

“These elections have turned into a standoff between current president Alexander Lukashenko and united opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.”

https://jam-news.net/belarus-elections-arrests/


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Armed soldiers on Thursday forcibly shut down the Zimbabwean capital Harare, ordering people to leave the Central Business District, and businesses to close ahead of anti-government protests scheduled for Friday.

“The protests fall on the same day the contentious 2018 elections were held in the landlocked African country.”

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/zimbabwe-soldiers-shut-down-harare-ahead-of-protests/1927667


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It is fitting that as I write this I am guided only by the light from my screen and a candle, which I have placed not far from my feet. Power outages have long been a constant in Lebanon.

“The most severe economic crisis since the country’s independence, and the resulting fuel shortage, has meant that private generators have struggled to keep up with the additional burden.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/candlelight-lebanon-economic-crisis-social-catastrophe


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The controversy over the Lebanese central bank’s decision to record seigniorage as an asset in its crisis-torn balance sheet is no parochial matter. Across the world, strange things are happening to this important source of income for central banks and finance ministries.

“Described as the profit made from printing money, seigniorage is the difference between the amount central banks receive on issuing money and the much lower cost of producing it…”

https://www.ft.com/content/daac9683-9148-4e85-9d05-6da1ea315721


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Southeast Asia is on the brink of a “socio-economic crisis” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic that could reverse decades of poverty reduction, the United Nations has warned.

““The crisis threatens to destroy the livelihoods of Southeast Asia’s 218 million informal workers,” a U.N. policy brief released on Thursday said.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-un-southeast-asia/southeast-asia-poverty-to-surge-in-socio-economic-crisis-un-idUKKCN24W06O


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The coronavirus has plunged car makers around the world into one of the deepest crises in recent years and added to struggles the industry was already facing before the pandemic, with softening demand for cars and soaring costs for technology.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-cuts-dividend-amid-coronavirus-driven-downturn-11596097657


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COVID-19 has led to a global economic slowdown that is affecting all four pillars of food security—availability, access, utilization, and stability—according to a new article from researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), published in the journal Science.”

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-economic-food-chain-disruptions-endanger.html


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