“…with such deep fragilities in the global economy, one cannot rule out an L-shaped Greater Depression… Environmental concerns are… mounting. In east Africa, desertification has created ideal conditions for biblical-scale locust swarms…
“….crop failures due to rising temperatures and desertification will drive hundreds of millions of people from hot tropical zones toward the US, Europe and other temperate regions in the coming decades. And other recent studies warn that climate “tipping points” such as the collapse of major ice sheets in Antarctica or Greenland could lead to a sudden catastrophic sea-level rise.
“The links between climate change and pandemics are also becoming clearer… the economy could still quickly be derailed by another economic, financial, geopolitical or public-health tail risk, many of which have persisted and, in some cases, grown more acute during the current crisis…
“…we should not be surprised if one or more white swans emerge to shake the global economy again before the year is out.”
“The U.S. economy likely contracted at its steepest pace since the Great Depression in the second quarter as the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed consumer and business spending, potentially wiping out more than five years of growth…
“…momentum has slowed amid a resurgence in new cases of the illness, especially in the densely populated South and West regions…”
“The Federal Reserve took little action at its meeting this week, but sent plenty of dovish signals to investors — highlighting its worries about the impact of coronavirus on a US recovery, its hopes that Congress will renew fiscal stimulus, and its willingness to add monetary support.
““We’ve got to hope for the best and plan for the worst,” Jay Powell, the chairman of the US central bank, said…”
https://www.ft.com/content/eac42082-2122-41bb-bd66-f0171b73e925
“As Senate Republicans look to slash the extra $600 per week in federal unemployment benefits provided by the CARES Act, 31.5% of Americans with lost income (35% of women and 26% of men) say they could not live without the supplemental checks for more than a month, according to a recent study from The Ascent, the personal finance section of The Motley Fool.”
“The American economy has lived on debt for a long time… U.S. companies owe …an eye-watering $17 trillion, the Financial Times reported earlier this month…
“In the last few months, this mountain of corporate debt has been compounded by a once-in-a-century event… debt maturities put the livelihoods of millions of Americans at stake.”
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-corporate-debt-covid-19-bonds-federal-reserve-1521219
““I’m not sure where it’s all going and if we will survive,” says Chris Wolfe, owner of UK wholesaler Southeast Flowers, pointing to the hundreds of weddings cancelled at short notice and the flowers that died on the way from Ecuador…
“Companies such as Ms Wolfe’s are now at the centre of the crisis that the British economy is set to face in the coming months.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2bef51e5-f581-4ef5-af95-3c344ed7a238
“More than 11,000 people in the UK’s automotive industry have lost their job in the last six months due to coronavirus, as the sector heads for its worst year of car production since 1957…
“The last six months have been the weakest for vehicle manufacturing since 1954.”
https://www.cityam.com/carmakers-shed-11000-jobs-as-production-set-for-worst-year-since-1957/
“A disorderly break with the European Union at the end of the year poses a bigger threat to Britain’s food supplies than the coronavirus pandemic that saw supermarket shelves emptied, a Parliamentary committee warned…
““The government cannot afford to be complacent,” the report said.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-bigger-threat-u-k-230100425.html
“The coronavirus struck at the heart of the British banking system yesterday as it wreaked havoc on the finances of two of the country’s biggest lenders. In a grim economic sign, Barclays has earmarked £3.7billion so far this year to cover the cost of loans to households and businesses turning sour, up £1.6billion since March.
“And Spanish giant Santander Group wrote down the value of its UK arm by £5.4billion as profits dwindled.”
“Spanish multinational banking firm Santander fell to its largest loss in history following a massive write-down on some of its businesses.
“The group slumped to a €10.8billion (£9.8billion) loss in the first half of the year…”
“The coronavirus pandemic has forced Hong Kong into an even deeper recession. And it may take longer than expected to recover. The Asian financial hub’s economy shrank 9% in the three months through June…
“Hong Kong had already fallen into recession last year — its first in a decade — because of months of anti-government protests and the US-China trade war.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/economy/hong-kong-gdp-intl-hnk/index.html
“The virus has disrupted global and local food systems, and India’s poor and hungry are being affected worse than ever…
“The pandemic amplified the vulnerabilities of the national food system. It has disrupted local, regional and national supply chains, adding to the impacts of the country’s food waste problem.”
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-covid-worsens-hunger-india-world.html
“More than 11 million people in Latin America are “marching towards the brink of starvation” due to economic conditions exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, the U.N.’s food agency chief David Beasley has warned.
“”The COVID-19 pandemic has just been devastating in Latin America, where the economic storm clouds were already gathering,” Beasley said in a statement put out by the World Food Program on Wednesday…”
“Venezuela’s total economic collapse has fuelled a large-scale, complex and underfunded humanitarian crisis. An estimated 4.5 million Venezuelans have fled a country blighted by unemployment, collapsing utilities, a defunct healthcare system and severe food shortages.
“And as refugees, it is women who have been the most vulnerable to labour and sexual exploitation, trafficking and violence.”
“The Covid-19 crisis has taken a big bite out of the chocolate market, causing a collapse in demand that has sent cocoa prices sharply lower and created “disastrous” conditions for farmers…
“The pandemic has already created a crisis for farmers, said Nestor Yao, president of the Capressa farmer co-operative, which represents about 3,200 farmers in Abengourou, in eastern Ivory Coast.”
https://www.ft.com/content/37aa0ac8-e879-4dc2-b751-3eb862b12276
“A global squeeze on disposal income and a lockdown in the key Indian market caused a collapse in demand for gold jewellery in the first half of the year, according to new figures that underscore how record precious metals prices are being driven by demand from financial investors…
“…weak physical demand for gold was more than offset by record inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds…”
https://www.ft.com/content/9c67f5ab-262a-4992-aebe-d818c9713b21
“The crippling effects of the coronavirus crisis have crushed government and corporate finances and sent debt soaring… it is also crunching their credit ratings and causing a spike in defaults.”
“Six months on from the first signs that coronavirus had the potential to be a major global problem, a new type of outbreak is spreading from the East. Last week, South Korea officially went into recession, while Australia also recorded its largest budget deficit since the Second World War.
“Meanwhile, when you look to the west, the USA is still battling new surges in virus outbreaks, while watching the global recession take shape like an oncoming storm.”
https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/07/economic-timebomb-global-recession/
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