Nice to lead with something not pandemic-related. Almost makes me feel nostalgic!
“Climate change threatens to create turmoil in the financial markets, and the Federal Reserve and other regulators must act to avoid an economic disaster, according to a letter sent on Tuesday by a group of large investors.
““The climate crisis poses a systemic threat to financial markets and the real economy, with significant disruptive consequences on asset valuations and our nation’s economic stability,” reads the letter, which was signed by more than three dozen pension plans, fund managers and other financial institutions that together manage almost $1 trillion in assets.
“That financial threat, combined with the physical risks posed by climate change, may create “disastrous impacts the likes of which we haven’t seen before,” the letter says.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/climate/investors-climate-threat-regulators.html
“Could the number of [US] unemployed rise to 38 million from 32 million, a 25% rate of unemployment?
“As businesses, agencies, and organizations recalibrate to the reality that the V-shaped recovery was nothing but a brief fantasy, 6 million additional jobs lost may be a best-case scenario rather than a worst-case scenario.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4359594-real-unemployment-rate-is-21-and-heading-higher
“Great Depression levels of unemployment have hit some of the country’s biggest cities.
“The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the jobless rate in New York, Los Angeles and other major urban areas to near or above 20%, nearly twice the national rate.”
“Forgoing doctor visits, skipping mortgage payments: How unemployed Americans will cope without an extra $600:
“”Americans face a steep drop in their unemployment benefits at a time when coronavirus cases are spiking again and more states are abruptly pausing their reopenings, trends that threaten to derail the nation’s economic recovery when millions are already out of work.”
“It all adds up to a picture that is far bleaker than 2008. This is 50,000 times worse, in my opinion, because there’s no direction,” finance expert Suze Orman said.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/suze-orman-a-perfect-storm-is-brewing-and-it-is-worse-than-2008.html
“In Portland, Washington and other U.S. cities shaken by protests in recent months, the Trump administration has leaned on the considerable authority and assets of the Department of Homeland Security…
“Legal analysts say that while the department has broad authority to enforce federal laws, officers’ actions — especially in Portland, Ore. — seemed to be pushing the boundaries and pulling DHS into a domestic policing role.”
Well, this sounds nuts. Markets are literally making it up as they go along and this could be the new “normal”:
“As stocks surged back from the late March bottom, one piece of market information normally used by traders to assess opportunity in public companies has been nonexistent: short-term financial guidance… a casualty of the coronavirus economic uncertainty. Some think guidance is gone for good.”
“The dollar’s recent strength role may actually prevent emerging markets from experiencing higher demand for their exports as many of their them are priced in dollars, the IMF said Monday…
“…the IMF noted that the dollar’s dominance as a global currency can impact the way global trade works, and could make a global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic even more difficult.”
Heavily indebted nations (some more indebted than others) taking on yet more debt on a shared basis is hardly a recipe for future unity or indeed a cause for celebration, excepting that it averts immediate calamity:
“On Tuesday European Union leaders agreed to a recovery plan funded by the bloc’s first major issuance of common debt, and some are calling it a historic moment for the Continent’s political and fiscal integration.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-takes-the-debt-plunge-11595372834
“An indication of the potentially devastating effect of the Covid-19 outbreak on community sport on Australia has been revealed, with a quarter of clubs across the nation at risk of closure if suitable financial support is not quickly secured…
““This is not just a sporting crisis”, but a national crisis,” the ASF’s chief executive, Patrick Walker, said…”
“South Korea slipped into a recession in the second quarter, official data are expected to show Thursday, after its no-lockdown strategy and stimulus failed to offset a slump in exports.
“Gross domestic product is expected to have fallen 2.4% last quarter from January-March, according to a median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A negative outcome would mark the first recession since 2003.”
“Thailand has over the past week lost several government ministers — including those holding crucial economic portfolios — as the coronavirus pandemic slams the tourism-dependent Southeast Asian economy…
“The Thai economy, which is heavily dependent on tourism, is expected to register the worst economic contraction in Asia this year…”
“Algeria’s oil and gas revenues will be reduced by $10 bln to $23 billion as the country struggles with a surge in spending in a heavily subsidized economy…
“To maintain a balanced budget, barrel oil price should at least be 100 dollars…”
“Iraq’s finance minister has warned of “severe security consequences” if its economy is not “restructured radically”, as the coronavirus crisis wreaks havoc on business and an oil price crash hits state revenues…
“The country’s oil export revenues fell from $6.1bn in January to lows of $1.4bn in April, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0832f9c0-00ff-45a7-bd87-0f45a48a37f5
“Loan default rate reaches 3.7% as oil, gas sector tops record… analysts agree that companies both large and small are flashing warning signs.”
“Across Lebanon, hospitals and doctors are reporting shortages in vital medical supplies such as anesthesia drugs and sutures. With power cuts that run through most of the day, they pour money into fuel for generators, and many are turning away non-critical cases to conserve resources.
“The situation is really catastrophic, and we expect a total collapse if the government doesn’t come up with a rescue plan,” said Selim Abi Saleh, the head of the Physicians Union in northern Lebanon…”
“Zimbabwe is now facing widespread starvation, and locals say basic food staples in stores are so expensive that few can afford to buy them, and in certain areas basic goods are scarce.
“For most Zimbabweans, meat has become unaffordable; even carrots are a luxury.
“When Zimbabweans asked President Emmerson Mnangagwa six months ago about the unaffordable price of meat, he said: “If people can’t eat meat, let them eat vegetables.””
https://www.newzimbabwe.com/food-insecurity-bites-as-zimbabwes-economy-faces-collapse/
“Debt is neither free nor irrelevant, as interventionists want us to believe, even if interest rates are low. More debt means less growth and a slower exit from the crisis, with lower productivity growth and a tepid employment improvement…
“if macro earnings and employment data remain disappointing, the next crash may be worse than the economic shutdown, because it may add a financial crisis to the already weak economy…”
https://shepherdgazette.com/the-world-is-drowning-in-debt/
“Over 90% of the world’s economies are contracting. The present global recession has no precedent in terms of synchronization.
“A major slump in world trade volume is taking place.
“Additional debt incurred by all countries, and many private entities, to mitigate the worst consequences of the pandemic… has moved debt to GDP ratios to uncharted territory.
“This insures that a persistent misallocation of resources will be reinforced, constraining growth as productive resources needed for sustained growth will be unavailable.
“2020 global per capita GDP is in the process of registering one of the largest yearly declines in the last century and a half…”
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