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1.) We likely already exceeded 1.5C in 2016 if we use 1750 as our pre-industrial baseline, as the IPCC originally did.

2.) It’s not a question of “rising chances”, it is baked into the cake! But, FWIW:

The planet is on course to break the 1.5C warming barrier in the next few years, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, only five years after the limit was agreed at the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-crisis-change-temperature-degree-wmo-met-office-emissions-2020-a9609481.html


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Intense wildfires in the Arctic in June released more polluting gases into the Earth’s atmosphere than in any other month in 18 years of data collection, European scientists said in a report Tuesday…

“The Arctic is warming at least two and a half times faster than the global average rate.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/climate/climate-change-arctic-fires.html


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Russian fertiliser maker Uralchem said on Wednesday it had temporarily suspended its Azot plant, an ammonia, nitric acid and urea producer in the Perm region, due to high calcium chloride levels in a river it uses for water supply.

“The company said it recorded high pollutant levels in the Kama river on Tuesday and Wednesday…”

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-pollution-uralchem/russias-uralchem-suspends-plant-in-perm-region-due-to-river-pollution-idUSKBN249203


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According to Christopher Larsen, project manager of Operation IceBridge (OIB) Alaska, these glaciers are losing on the order of 75 billion tons of ice each year, which contribute to global sea level rise…

“Larsen has seen Yakutat Glacier break apart into large icebergs and retreat significantly over the past few years.”

https://blogs.nasa.gov/earthexpeditions/2020/07/08/operation-icebridge-glaciers-arent-forever/


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There have also been six straight “tropical nights,” a term Environment Canada uses for nights where temperatures stay above 20 C. Statistically speaking, Toronto and surrounding regions would normally see one or two per year

“This summer has also seen scorching temperatures take hold earlier than usual.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/heat-wave-hot-toronto-weather-summer-1.5641604


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Oppressive heat will blanket the U.S. from California to the Northeast through at least the middle of next week, driving up energy demand, stressing crops and probably setting new records…

““This heat is different,” Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said by telephone.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coast-coast-u-heat-wave-151037930.html


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“Families were displaced by flooding and at least one person died in a traffic accident after a record day of rain in the Augusta area.

Augusta saw 4.6 inches of rain on Tuesday, beating the previous record for a July day of 4.58 inches set in 1887.”

https://www.augustachronicle.com/news/20200708/record-day-of-rain-tuesday-causes-flooding-in-augusta-area


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2020 has been the hottest year on record so far in Florida, and among the hottest in 126 years in a number of eastern states, according to a government report.

“NOAA’s June State of the Climate report released Wednesday found the first six months of 2020 was Florida’s warmest January through June period on record, edging out the previous record-holder, 2017, in records dating to 1895.”

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2020-07-08-florida-hottest-year-2020-june-noaa


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Amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Puerto Rico is not only enduring a health crisis but also a worsening drought, forcing tens of thousands to go without running water every 24 hours.

“For nearly a week now, more than 140,000 residents, including some in the island’s capital of San Juan, have been experiencing an intermittent water supply.”

https://abcnews.go.com/International/puerto-rico-residents-water-24-hours-amid-drought/story?id=71546489


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South America has experienced an “unprecedented” increase in extreme weather events over the past century, according to a new analysis of 600 years of tree-ring records…

“For example, an ongoing decade-long drought in Chile and Argentina is one of the worst on record and could result in “the potential collapse of food systems,” according to Morales.

“Meanwhile, other regions of South America have seen frequent periods of flooding.”

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/tree-ring-records-show-increase-in-extreme-weather-in-south-america


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In the year 2050, summers in Spain could be far from recognisable as experts predict that temperatures could reach the 50-degree mark.

“In 30 years, suffocating heat waves could be experienced followed by months of drought and tropical nights. According to a study conducted by eltiempo. es, the summer of 2050 could be irrevocably altered by the effects of climate change.”

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/07/09/summers-in-spain-could-reach-scorching-temperatures-of-up-to-50-degrees/#.XwboZChKjIU


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New research confirms that extreme droughts amid the deepening climate crisis are forcing nocturnal aardvarks in the Kalahari [South Africa] to feed and forage when the sun’s up — but even so, their ant and termite food sources are dying out as the vegetation they survive on is affected by the droughts.”

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-07-09-aardvark-starvation-extreme-drought-killing-off-food-sources/#gsc.tab=0


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Street vendors in India are suffering from lower earnings and ill health as they lose access to shade in cities where trees are felled to make way for construction, researchers said on Thursday.

“As deadly heatwaves become more frequent in tropical countries such as India, loss of shade can severely affect those who live and work on the streets…”

https://www.news18.com/news/india/street-vendors-hit-hard-by-lower-earnings-ill-health-as-heatwave-snatches-access-to-shade-in-cities-2708371.html


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It started raining in Dwarka [Gujarat, India] on Saturday evening. A series of torrential bursts dropped 593mm (23 inches) of rain since then, three and a half times the July average rainfall.

“Streets disappeared under half to one metre of collected water, submerging cars.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/tropical-depression-floods-indian-state-gujarat-200708103703561.html


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Two persons died while 23 others went missing as the monsoon-fed rivers swept away 14 houses in Bahrabise Municipality-5 and two houses in Bhotekoshi Rural Municipality of Sindhupalchok district [Nepal] on Wednesday night

“…security personnel… have been conducting rescue and search operation at the incident sites.”

https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/two-die-23-go-missing-as-floods-sweep-away-16-houses-in-sindhupalchok/


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A landslide buried nine people on Wednesday in China’s Hubei province, the People’s Daily newspaper reported, after some of the heaviest rain in decades brought floods that have killed more than 100 people

“…with rainfall in some places two to three times higher than normal, according to the China Meteorological Administration.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-weather/landslide-in-chinas-hubei-buries-nine-after-heaviest-rain-in-years-idUSKBN2490FB


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Torrential, record-breaking rainstorms have deluged southern and central Japan since Friday, killing at least 58 people… On Friday, 15 inches of rain fell in just six hours, a record, in southwest Kyushu… Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the government to declare an “extreme disaster”…

“Meanwhile, meteorologists are eyeing the potential for parts of Japan to receive another foot or more of rainfall next week.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/08/japan-floods/


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The heavy rains that have pummeled the Kyushu region in recent days have severely damaged railway lines on Japan’s southernmost main island and washed away a number of historic rail bridges.

“The damage not only cuts off a means of transportation for local residents, but could have major ramifications for tourism on Kyushu…”

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13529875


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