This does not augur well for the future of the global economy, given the very tight correlation between energy consumption and economic growth:
“The International Energy Agency believes the coronavirus pandemic has paved the way for the largest decline of global energy investment in history, with spending set to plummet in every major sector this year.
“In the group’s annual World Energy Investment report, published on Wednesday, the IEA said that the unparalleled decline in worldwide energy investment had been “staggering in both its scale and swiftness.””
Containment measures were only introduced in March and even then not in all OECD nations, so Q2 will be considerably worse:
“Gross domestic product across OECD countries fell by 1.8% in the first quarter as Covid-19 containment measures weighed on the economy. According to provisional estimates, it marked the organization’s largest quarterly GDP decline since the 2.3% contraction of early 2009, which occurred at the height of the financial crisis.”
“…a senior EU official said there was a risk of stalemate [on Brexit] if the EU did not see progress on its vital interests, including how to ensure fair competition, or a level playing field, between British and EU companies under a free-trade deal.”
Audio:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2020/may/27/brexit-is-the-uk-headed-for-a-no-deal
“France’s economy is on course to contract 20% in the second quarter from the previous three months as the country emerges from a nationwide coronavirus lockdown, the INSEE official statistics agency estimated on Wednesday…
“INSEE estimated that France’s economic activity was running at 21% below normal levels.”
“The vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB) has backed the unprecedented stimulus packages launched in the region, saying there were no alternatives for lawmakers…
“Fiscal deficits are expected to widen, debt piles will climb and the financial repercussions could be felt for generations.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/luis-de-guindos-alternative-to-stimulus-is-much-worse.html
“The initial stage of the COVID-19 crisis now appears to be over, but the first stage of a crisis is rarely the last. The next stage appears to be a systemic banking crisis starting in Europe.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350156-road-to-weimar-goes-through-european-banking-system
“The majority of households are in personal financial crisis, or are close to falling into it, an international survey including 3000 New Zealanders showed.
“Already one in 10 Kiwi households had missed a mortgage or rent payment as a result of the Covid-19 economic crisis, the research from the taxpayer-funded Commission for Financial Capability indicated.”
“COVID-19 has left the Canadian economy in tatters, with skyrocketing unemployment.
“The overstretched and vulnerable Canadian housing market is starting to collapse. I believe the big 5 Canadian banks are in for a very tough year.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350032-canadian-housing-collapse-and-big-5-banks
“US president Donald Trump’s administration is weighing removing Hong Kong’s special treatment under US trade laws in response to Beijing’s tightening control over its special territory.
“A US law passed in November requires the administration to submit a report to Congress by 25 May to determine whether Beijing is using Hong Kong’s special customs treatment under US laws to subvert the far more extensive restrictions on trade in technology and dual use items with mainland China.”
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2108731-us-weighs-removing-hong-kongs-special-trade-status
“Israel has turned down a Hong Kong firm’s investment bid worth $1.5bn to develop a water desalination plant, as Tel Aviv faces intense pressure from the United States to put an end to Chinese investments and partnerships in the country.
“Lucrative Israeli commercial deals with China have come under scrutiny from the United States…”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-china-investment-bid-united-states-trade-war
“Thousands of armed police have flooded the streets of Hong Kong in an unprecedented show of force to prevent protests against a law criminalising ridicule of China’s national anthem.
“At lunchtime rallies police fired pepper bullets into crowds, appearing to hit one reporter, and detained dozens of protesters.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/hong-kong-trump-china-security-crackdown-protests
“China’s central bank has weakened its reference rate for the yuan for a second day amid rising tensions with the U.S., stoking market concerns of capital flight and a rekindled trade war…
“”I thought China would avoid weaponizing its currency,” a strategist at a U.S. brokerage said. “We’ll need to keep a close eye on its moves for a while.””
“The Chinese president had pledged to erase poverty by the end of 2020. Since the start of the year, 380,000 more Chinese are on the edge of poverty. Officially, 5.5 million are poor.
“Tens of millions of migrant workers have become uneployed because of the coronavirus. Protests against employers are growing. The government promises nine million new jobs.”
“While attention in developed countries has been focused inward on the effects of the pandemic at home and the anticipated exit from lockdown, an economic and health disaster is emerging in developing counties that make up 85% of the world’s population.”
“Brazil experienced its most aggressive deflation for at least 26 years in May…
“…according to a mid-month measure of consumer prices released on Tuesday, as the coronavirus crisis triggered a collapse in transport and related prices.”
“European countries are appealing for money to help more than five million Venezuelan migrants who left their homes because of the economic crisis.
“Most remained in Latin America where many are destitute. Now the coronavirus pandemic is making their situation worse because they cannot return home.”
“Evening curfew, public transport stopped, the obligation to wear masks. Egypt is also combating the pandemic, as in the rest of the world, with moments of tragedy and hope, respect for the rules and disregard.
“Coupled with this is a growing economic crisis that in rural areas, in popular neighborhoods and in shanty towns is more feared than the virus…”
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-epidemic-in-Egypt:-curfew,-economic-crisis-and-prayers-50183.html
“Even before coronavirus hit, Lebanon was experiencing the worst economic crisis in the country’s history, which triggered large anti-government protests late last year.
“While the authorities have been praised for their response to the virus, almost half the country’s six million people are now living below the poverty line.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52756418
“Among the myriad of other forms of insecurity that prevail across war-torn Syria, food insecurity levels have quickly broken new records.
“Now, it is reported that an estimated 9.3 million people across the country are being defined as food insecure, which is in stark contrast to the figure estimated a few months ago which stood at 7.9 million.”
https://www.trtworld.com/perspectives/food-insecurity-and-the-crashing-syrian-pound-36650
“Farmers in Nashik, India, have said that they are facing losses as they are unable to sell onions at fair prices.
“”We are getting less than half of the price at which we used to sell. Our earnings are not even supporting the expense of fuel to carry them to market. The situation is such we will die of hunger,” a farmer told ANI.
“He said that the market is down due to coronavirus outbreak.”
“The world faces an “unprecedented” food crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused both severe job losses and major disruptions in food supply chains, the U.N. World Food Programme’s Chief Economist warns.
““When you have these severe job losses, or you have big lockdowns, that means that those people become vulnerable,” Arif Husain tells TIME.”
https://time.com/5842424/hunger-coronavirus-world-food-programme/
“With many countries starting to ease lockdown restrictions imposed to stop the spread of the virus, which has infected over 5.5 million people globally, equity markets are rallying on hopes for a swift return to health and prosperity.
“But the trough in economic activity will be deeper and the rebound is likely to take longer than predicted just a short time ago, in part because the pandemic is spreading across the globe in stages and arriving in countries at different times.
“Reuters polls of more than 250 economists taken over the past few weeks showed recessions in most major economies would be deeper this year than previously predicted.”
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