The World Trade Organisation sums up the global trade situation in 2019 pre-coronavirus:
“Trade was already slowing in 2019 before the virus struck, weighed down by trade tensions and slowing economic growth. World merchandise trade registered a slight decline for the year of 0.1% in volume terms… Meanwhile, the dollar value of world merchandise exports in 2019 fell by 3% to US$ 18.89 trillion.”
And forecasts:
…a decline in global trade of “between 13% and 32% in 2020 as the COVID 19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world.”
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm
“Federal Reserve officials feared a sharp decline in economic and market conditions last month as they began injecting a heavy dose of monetary stimulus to limit the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic…
“Officials at the Fed were also grappling with little clarity on when economic conditions might improve.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d2977690-7969-4482-8f12-dc6a37fc7c3e
“The forced closure of businesses across the United States and surge in unemployment due to the coronavirus pandemic will force U.S. growth to contract by 30% in the second quarter… Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO) wrote on Wednesday…”
““The St Louis Fed predicts potential job losses of over 46m for 2020. This would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, which would be the highest ever.
“Currently, the peak stands at 24.9%, which occurred in 1933 during the Great Depression.””
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-unemployment-rate-could-be-the-highest-ever-anz-202004080839
“The IMF made a dire warning six months ago: A slowdown half as severe as the 2008 collapse could put some $19 trillion of debt at risk, according to the organization’s financial stability report.
“Heavy corporate indebtedness could exacerbate the next downturn, the IMF said, leading to higher unemployment, and cause banks to pull back from lending.”
https://qz.com/1833565/some-are-calling-for-a-junk-bond-leveraged-loan-bailout/
“For years, supplying bankruptcy financing was a safe and lucrative way to make money off corporate defaults. Now, investors aren’t so sure.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bankruptcy-loans-turn-dangerous-11586347202
“The Trump administration has approved roughly $100 billion of the $350 billion allocated for emergency loans to small businesses…
“But the figure has done little to ease the rising fears of smaller businesses still struggling to access the funds — and growing ever-more concerned that the program is tilted in favor of larger enterprises with existing relationships with banks.”
“The UK economy shrank by 0.1% in February, indicating that it was already in a weak position before the full force of the coronavirus crisis razed the country’s businesses…
“Output was nonetheless dented by severe weather in the month, which saw more than twice the average rainfall. Storms Ciara, Dennis, and Jorge flooded homes and businesses across the country.”
“Up to two million [UK] workers have lost their jobs already as the coronavirus crisis strikes the biggest blow to British employment on record, experts have said.
“It means Covid-19 has wiped out the past five years of employment growth in a matter of weeks as companies scramble to sack staff during the lockdown, despite unprecedented support from taxpayers.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/08/two-million-people-lose-jobs-record-plunge/
“A group of five leading economic institutions in Germany is forecasting a severe recession with a contraction of 9.8% in the second quarter of 2020 after shrinking by 1.9% in the first quarter “
“Talks on a coronavirus economic rescue plan for the eurozone worth up to €540bn (£476bn) have broken up without a deal amid north-south divisions over the strings to attach to financial aid for the most-stricken countries…
“The coronavirus pandemic is testing EU unity, especially the inner circle of 19 countries that use the single currency, where there are stark differences over the question of shared debt.”
“The U.S. plans to block Iran’s requested $5 billion emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund for funding Tehran says it needs to fight its coronavirus crisis.”
“The economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic could cascade from a health catastrophe into a financial crisis in countries struggling to cope, Singapore’s trade minister warned on Thursday.
“Many countries are now “fiscally challenged,” with few having the headroom to deploy monetary policy as rates are currently so low, Chan Chun Sing, Singapore’s minister for trade and industry, told CNBC. “That is a dangerous situation,” he said.”
“Over a billion people around the world are going to suffer financially as the coronavirus sends the job market into a tailspin.”
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-jobs-market
“The world economy is in a recession and the chart below gives a clear indication of the level of downturn. The chart provides the global purchasing managers’ index for March 2020.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336673-global-economic-meltdown-in-one-chart
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