From the brilliant David Korowicz, and worth reading in its entirety:
“Because society depends upon multiple interacting networks, within cities and across the globe, there are many routes to cascading disruption.
“This is an example of non-linearity- a relatively small number of directly impacted people or functions can still cause the failure of a whole system. The speed of our societal processes, from Just-in-Time logistics to financial transactions means that shocks can rapidly cascade…”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-04/we-need-to-talk-about-catastrophic-global-risk/
“The Bank of Canada cut its trend-setting interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.25 per cent down from 1.75 per cent on Wednesday in an effort to soften the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.
“The decision comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented a similar cut on Tuesday, acting before its next scheduled policy meeting on March 17-18.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/6628997/bank-of-canada-0-5-interest-rate-cut/
“It is still too soon to see any impact of the coronavirus impact on the [US] data…
“We’re going to get much weaker job numbers going forward,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said… “now with the virus, we’re going to get much weaker numbers. It is just a matter of time,” he said.
““Economists have a really hard time saying over 50% probability of recession. I assure you, almost every economist out there is thinking over 50% probability,” Zandi said.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-adds-183000-private-sector-jobs-in-february-adp-says-2020-03-04
“Europe’s largest regional airline Flybe has collapsed into administration, citing ‘additional pressure’ caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
“The company said all Flybe flights were immediately grounded and advised all passengers not to travel to airports unless alternative flight arrangements had been made. Some 2,400 people were employed by the company and notified of its collapse via email.”
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/05/flybe-collapses-administration-amid-coronavirus-pressure-12351257/
“The coronavirus outbreak threatens to plunge both France and Italy into recession, and the ripples from a prolonged outbreak could incite a “vicious” spiral of declining markets, European finance ministers have been warned.”
“Car sales in China plummeted last month as the coronavirus epidemic kept buyers out of dealerships, an industry group said Wednesday.
“Retail auto sales in the world’s largest auto market sank 80 percent in February…”
https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/china-car-sales-plummet-80-percent-amid-coronavirus-crisis/
“Cunliffe [Deputy Governor, Financial Stability at Bank of England] is probably not making an allusion to the possibility that the Bank of England could engage in “helicopter money” – the printing of new money to hand directly to the public.
“But last resort measures such as this might have to be on the agenda if the current crisis deepens.”
“The global economic slowdown resulting from the coronavirus outbreak will be more severe than previously estimated, Kristalina Georgieve, the IMF’s managing director, said on Wednesday.
““Unfortunately over the last week, we have seen a shift to a more adverse scenario for the global economy,” Georgieva said, at a briefing for reporters.”
“It is the flow of people, as much as money, that keeps the global economy ticking over.
“It follows that a sudden halt to the movement of workers, shoppers and tourists should worry us just as much as the drying up of credit during the global financial crisis in 2008. With fewer obvious quick fixes, the virus outbreak should perhaps concern us even more.”
“COVID-19 is becoming the third major crisis of the post–Cold War period, following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the financial collapse of 2008.
“This crisis may exact a greater toll than the other two and has demonstrated the limits of populism as a method of government.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/geopolitics-coronavirus/607414/
“The coronavirus is delivering a one-two punch [in the form of simultaneous supply and demand shocks] to the world economy, laying it low for months to come and forcing investors to reprice equities and bonds to account for lower company earnings.”
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